Quote:
Originally Posted by kirklancaster
Why? This racist knob is in a minority and the party will purge these vermin OUT as it settles and grows and becomes established, and as it does, UKIP WILL ECLIPSE the LABOUR party within the next 5 years - EU in or out - mark my words.
Wager?
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I would wager against that Kirk, really I can only see in the end UKIP succeed more against the Conservatives,if they fail to set out to do that,they will fall back.
The Lib Dems tried to regain their place over Labour a few times and ended up failing badly too in the past.
The SDP come to mind and then the SDP/Liberal Alliance, which threatened Labour but then by 2 elections were a spent force.
Where the Lib Dems succeeded was getting in to Conservative areas and taking seats from them.
That is how today, now we have a majority Conservative govt. again, by the Conservatives again seeing off the Lib Dems and taking a massive 26 seats off them in the May general election.
UKIP, had a breakthrough as to votes in May, although well short of its European figure.
It is in a lot of 2nd places in Labour seats but really well behind in 2nd place too,which doesn't often signify great success in the future.
There were 3 seats, UKIP, should have done really well this election against Labour,Heywood and Middleton(which they nearly won in a by election and where there is a really poor MP in place).
Rotherham (where labour has had nightmare publicity),and Great Grimsby (again where Labour had an outgoing candidate who said the most obnoxious of comments as to Grimsby Labour voters).
UKIP fell way back in Heywood and Middleton,in Rotherham,Sarah Champion got a good vote of confidence from her voters,then finally in Great Grimsby a few hundred votes majority was considerably improved.
I really think the EU referendum will not see UKIP off completely but it will diminish their votes tally in 2020.
I also believe Labour will be in a much stronger position, as they found themselves in the past against the SDP/Liberal Alliance.
So unless UKIP can capture more Conservative voters,I do not think they have a good future now.
This is the election, with all the confusion that was created by the Conservatives as to a Labour/SNP govt.and the Conservatives seeming to be heading for another no overall majority position,where UKIP should have been able to capitalise on that and in a big way too.
I think it absolutely horrendous that any party can amass 3,800,0000 votes and only have a single MP to show for that,that is a disgrace really.
However even Nigel Farage failed to grab the seat he stood in.
Therein lies another telling moment.
It is sad for me now, that in this Queen's speech with so much content being as to constitutional matters,that we have an arrogant govt. that will now not acknowledge it does not really have a mandate for its policies.
63% of voters voted against this govt. this is a govt. elected only by the 'system' not by the 'people'.
However, this now means no change in 2020 and I would bet while UKIP is still a good force in 2020,it will lose votes and it will have little to no effect now on Labour,with a better leader.
Unless UKIP can tap into the Conservative vote as the Lib Dems had to, then a few more seats possible at best but very few,especially once the EU referendum issue is settled.
I got badly wrong the prediction I thought was going to happen in May, however on this I would wager that Labour will be the stronger party in 2020,I even believe it will claw back up to a third at least of its lost seats in Scotland too.
The problem often can be, when voters vote for a party in the numbers they have this time as to UKIP, then see no real breakthrough.
That fair to good numbers of them next time are reluctant to do so again.
Some of those who voted UKIP this time to help get the Conservatives out,will now likely feel they wasted their votes.
If they were usually 'soft' Labour voters, I believe that is where they will return in 2020.
We will see of course as time goes on,
you can remind me of this,were I to be wrong, in 2020.
I do agree that a lot of emphasis was, and still is, on some perceived racist element as to UKIP.
I have never thought them a racist party,they also had a bad media battle as to try and overcome that in this campaign.
It is very likely the media,except for the Daily/Sunday Express, will give UKIP an even more unfair time too in 2020.