[erinp5]

The essential facts and stats ahead of tonight’s face-to-face nominations



The final is looming now, and before long nominations will be a thing of the past for our current crop of housemates. So now seems like a good time to look back through the series and see if analysing the numbers can tell us anything about tonight's nominations, and who'll end up in the final.

Well, it beats asking the tea leaves, anyway.

Before we start, a quick note on how we counted Power nominations: during week 4, there were no nominations because the girls had the power to save, not to nominate, the male housemates. All other Power Housemate nominations have been counted as normal. With that in mind, here's our rundown of who's nominated whom...

Ash

Total nominations: 14
Nominations by current housemates: 9
Evictions survived: 3
Most often nominated by: Ashleigh and Chris
Most nominated: Ashleigh

Ash has had a pretty rocky relationship with nominations. Over the course of the series, he's racked up 14 nominations - he's also faced eviction after he wasn't saved in Girl Power week, and he had his nominations voided by Power Housemates Matthew and Toya back in week 3.

Guessing who Ash would nominate used to be easy: he nominated Danielle and Ashleigh three times, with only one break to nominate Chris and Danielle instead. So maybe he'll go for Chris and Ashleigh again? On the other hand, last week he broke out of his pattern and unexpectedly nommed Pav and Christopher. So it's anyone's guess, really.

Ashleigh

Total nominations: 13
Nominations by current housemates: 7
Evictions survived: 2
Most often nominated by: Ash and Helen
Most nominated: Ash, Pav, and Winston

Ashleigh's another one who's been nominated a lot, though she only actually faced the public vote twice. A lot of her nominations came from the same two housemates: Helen and Ash both nominated her three times, though neither of them nominated her last week.

Of the existing housemates, the one Ashleigh has nominated most often is Ash, though recently she's gone for Pav, instead - and in the early days, she nominated Winston several times. Her allegiances in the House have changed recently, so the only thing we feel confident predicting is that she won't nominate Chris.

Chris

Total nominations: 15
Nominations by current housemates: 7
Evictions survived: 3
Most often nominated by: Mark
Most nominated: Ash, Pav and Winston

Chris holds the record for most nominations so far this series, at least of the current housemates. But most of the people who nominated him have since been evicted - counting just the housemates still in the House, only Mark has nominated Chris more than once.

Chris's own nominations have tended to be quite powerful, especially since he was the only one who could nominate in week 2, and he was part of the Power alliance in week 7. He's nominated Ash, Pav, and Winston twice each, and it seems entirely likely his nominations this week will be along similar lines.

Christopher

Total nominations: 9
Nominations by current housemates: 3
Evictions survived: 4
Most often nominated by: No-one
Most nominated: No-one

So far, Christopher is the House's biggest survivor, making it through four evictions unscathed. Most of the housemates who nominated him have been evicted, too, with Ash, Chris and Helen all throwing him one nomination each over the past eight weeks. So he might get through this week's noms safely - though you never know.

Christopher's own nominations are particularly hard to predict. Of the current housemates, he's nominated Ash, Chris, Pav, and Winston once each. So, um, we can't really see any patterns there at all.

Helen

Total nominations: N/A
Nominations by current housemates: N/A
Evictions survived: N/A
Most often nominated by: N/A
Most nominated: Ashleigh

Thanks to her golden ticket to the final, Helen has been immune from nomination since the beginning. She's immune tonight, too, though as usual she'll get to make two nominations. Throughout the course of the series, she's nominated Ashleigh more often than anyone else, while the only other current housemates she's nominated are Chris, Christopher, and Pav, who all earned one nomination each.

She has recently become much closer to Ashleigh and Chris, though, so that might be set to change.

Mark

Total nominations: 2
Nominations by current housemates: 0
Evictions survived: 1
Most often nominated by: No-one
Most nominated: Chris and Pav

Mark holds the honour for the least number of nominations this series: he's only ever been nominated twice, and only faced eviction in week 4 because the girls didn't save him, figuring he'd be safe in a public vote.

Mark makes an effort to be friends with everyone, which might explain that - but there is a bit of a pattern to his nominations, and he's nommed both Chris and Pav twice each. They might well be contenders for his nominations this week, too.

Pav

Total nominations: 10
Nominations by current housemates: 10
Evictions survived: 3
Most often nominated by: Ashleigh, Chris and Mark
Most nominated: No-one

You'd think newcomer Pav wouldn't have had time to rack up too many noms, but actually coming into the series late meant he was an easy target for housemates who'd started to feel uncomfortable nominating their friends. Ashleigh, Chris and Mark have all nominated him twice since he's been in the House, so he might be on rocky ground tonight too.

Aside from kicking out Danielle with Zoe, Pav's only been able to nominate once, and he picked Ash and Chris. Which isn't enough data to make any predictions for the future, to be fair.

Winston

Total nominations: 6
Nominations by current housemates: 5
Evictions survived: 2
Most often nominated by: Ashleigh and Chris
Most nominated: No-one

After Mark, Winston's the least nominated current housemate. But the housemates who've nominated him most often - Ashleigh and Chris - are both still in the House, so he's not necessarily completely safe. Then again, their noms were weeks ago, so maybe their reasons for nominating him have expired?

Winston's own nominations don't give us much insight, either - he's nominated Ashleigh, Chris, and Pav once each, but otherwise, we've got no idea who he'll pick.

Based on all of that? We're thinking consulting the tea leaves might have yielded more conclusive results. Better get the kettle on...