[sampvt]

The title says it all. I am a professional gambler by day and a granddad by night. Betting isn't an exact science and risky unless you do it like me. I cant loose this week for example.

I bet a small £200 at 5/2 on Joel to go this week and it collects my £200 investment plus a £500 profit if he goes.

Now that bet is laid, I am now going to put £200 on Eileen at the same odds as she is 2/1 at the moment but by mid afternoon she will be bigger and the same bet means over the 2 bets, I will have invested £400 in total. My pay out on either is £700 so no matter which way the vote goes, I collect £300 clear profit with zero risk.

That's how I make the bookies pay and why I need to be listened to. Betting is easy if you know the rules and follow the odds. BB is notorious for changing the odds daily so its easy to make money from this show.

[Livia]

Betting is a fool's game as far as I'm concerned. Good luck to you though, hope it works out for you.

[sampvt]

Originally Posted by Livia

Betting is a fool's game as far as I'm concerned. Good luck to you though, hope it works out for you.

Not the way I bet petal as ive indicated. I don't gamble, I invest and rape the odds to my own aims, big difference.

If you all want to know how to make money from the final, let me know, I will help you all.

[saintjude]

Sounds interesting but I have no idea about betting so wouldn't really risk putting too much money on. Wouldn't mind putting a tenner onthough, what are your tips for the final? :P

[bitontheslide]

Sam is right, BB does seem to be a fertile ground for betting. I've always made a profit on my BB betting for very little effort or thought. It also makes it so much more bearable when someone you can't stand ends up winning the show.

[sampvt]

Originally Posted by saintjude

Sounds interesting but I have no idea about betting so wouldn't really risk putting too much money on. Wouldn't mind putting a tenner onthough, what are your tips for the final? :P

At the moment some bookies are offering stupid odds on the finl mainly because they are worried about BB interference so the best thing to do is look at the odds they offer.

Most bookies offer 1/3 odds for a 1 2 or 3rd place so if someones odd are now 6/1 like Danny's (or was), a £10 each way bet on him will pay you back around £100 if he wins and £30 if he is 3rd so you make a min of £10 or £80.

I would wait a while before betting on the final because my own gut feeling at the moment is marc or Danny to win but if Marc gets thrown out or Danny flips again, they are toast so who knows what other HM's might be added in the next few weeks.

Watch this space, but at the moment, no bets are safe bets until a fav emerges and odds tumble. I had £2000 last week at 11/10 and this weeks paltry £400 investment but I am still way out in front and my only pre season bet was on Danny to reach the final 5 but I only got 2/1 on that but I had a fair wedge on him. I did lose a little on Harriet going but you never know, they might put her back in, such is the daftness of this years show.

Powder dry till we see a but more is the best bet. I am trying to get odds on Simon walking but nobody will bite and that's a great bet as he is a fruit cake of the highest order and wont allow himself to come under the eviction process. he is convinced if he is up he is out and that's a recipe for a walker.

I predicted on day one an early ejection for sexual reasons and an early walker so I am on the right track but I am beginning to believe marc might get ejected as well if he cant keep a lid on the drinking.

[Mick]

Originally Posted by sampvt

Not the way I bet petal as ive indicated. I don't gamble, I invest and rape the odds to my own aims, big difference.

If you all want to know how to make money from the final, let me know, I will help you all.

What I would like to know is how you are still being accommodated to these size wagers.On line accounts with odds checkers bookmakers soon get restricted to very small amounts accepted when profits are made or at least this has been my experience with horse race betting.

[sampvt]

Originally Posted by Mick

What I would like to know is how you are still being accommodated to these size wagers.On line accounts with odds checkers bookmakers soon get restricted to very small amounts accepted when profits are made or at least this has been my experience with horse race betting.

I am actually barred from loads of sites, usually because of my American football bets but I NEVER TOUCH THE GEE GEES. Mugs game. The secret to a successful betting coup is to spread your bets all over the place and don't be greedy. Also have a relationship with your bookie also helps.

I am usefull to them as well as a winner.I can shift odds into their favour by punting so it limits their liabilities on payouts. People think the bookies can offer whatever odds they want, they cant, the gambling commission can investigate them for massaging odds and steamer bets if they want to so bookies odds are generally decided upon by volume of money invested.

If they have a liability on say Joel at say 1/2 and I hit them with £2000, they can drop his odds to 1/5 and don't b=need to take £3 or £4000 more on him at 1/2.

Small bets don't shift odds, big ones do and small bets under £50 are not monitored so 300 bets at £49 cant shift an odds market but in total 300 x £49 is a liability of a £14,700 wager that they cant control. My £2000 bet moves mountains so why are they nice to me, because I save them money as well as winning it.

[Dash Darington]

A freeroll came your way, and you're trying to convince people who know nothing of gambling that it makes you a genius.

[sampvt]

Originally Posted by Dash Darington

A freeroll came your way, and you're trying to convince people who know nothing of gambling that it makes you a genius.

Please elaborate, you have my attention

[parmnion]

**** me, I thought Marc loved himself.

[sampvt]

Originally Posted by parmnion

**** me, I thought Marc loved himself.

He does, and your point is ???????

[Legend killer]

I will decide whether you are an oracle or not

Where will King Cristian finish?? Bare in mind I will be quoting this for future reference

[parmnion]

Originally Posted by sampvt

He does, and your point is ???????

Self explanatory.

[Dash Darington]

Originally Posted by sampvt

Please elaborate, you have my attention

A freeroll is possible when the odds shift in your favour. This happens to everyone who gambles over any significant length of time. Everyone. It's not evidence of being a great gambler.

Separately, you called it a no brainer that Joel would go, and now you've bet against yourself because your confidence has waned. If not, you'd either let it ride or at most bet just enough on Eileen going to cover your first bet. You've abandoned your own prediction. Not very Oracle-like.

[sampvt]

Originally Posted by Legend killer

I will decide whether you are an oracle or not

Where will King Cristian finish?? Bare in mind I will be quoting this for future reference

Hard to say for definite based on the edits and future evictions or insertions but if pushed I would have to say 4th or 5th but he has the potential to go further if he finds a niche. He needs a showmance or a massive argument to make him relevant. At the moment its his to loose and he isn't helping himself radar diving his way to the final weeks.

[parmnion]

Originally Posted by Dash Darington

A freeroll is possible when the odds shift in your favour. This happens to everyone who gambles over any significant length of time. Everyone. It's not evidence of being a great gambler.

Separately, you called it a no brainer that Joel would go, and now you've bet against yourself because your confidence has waned. If not, you'd either let it ride or at most bet just enough on Eileen going to cover your first bet. You've abandoned your own prediction. Not very Oracle-like.

[sampvt]

Originally Posted by Dash Darington

A freeroll is possible when the odds shift in your favour. This happens to everyone who gambles over any significant length of time. Everyone. It's not evidence of being a great gambler.

Separately, you called it a no brainer that Joel would go, and now you've bet against yourself because your confidence has waned. If not, you'd either let it ride or at most bet just enough on Eileen going to cover your first bet. You've abandoned your own prediction. Not very Oracle-like.

This is why I make money and you obviously let your jealousy get the better of you. My Eileen bet was an insurance bet based on the edits and only a fool allows the chance factor to weigh lay their judgement. Being greedy is the trait of a desperate gambler. I don't gamble, I invest in betting odds.

I couldn't give a toss about personalities, I believe in the power of the pound not the love of an individual, that's for people like you that make the bookies a fortune with your logic (if of course you actually do bet which I doubt)

Im open for discussions anytime but if you want to turn this into a troll thread, walk on please as I am not that interested in arguing with people that cant reach my level.

[Legend killer]

Originally Posted by sampvt

Hard to say for definite based on the edits and future evictions or insertions but if pushed I would have to say 4th or 5th but he has the potential to go further if he finds a niche. He needs a showmance or a massive argument to make him relevant. At the moment its his to loose and he isn't helping himself radar diving his way to the final weeks.

Please explain Oracle?

[sampvt]

Originally Posted by Legend killer

Please explain Oracle?

I did, he is a plank

[RockBottom]

My gut feeling is fish lips will be kicked out. I think I will have a wager on it today. Fish lips has nothing left to bring to the house. Joel is a master game player and it would be a shame to loose such a great player this early.

[Mick]

I am unaware of how the bookmakers work the BB market but in horse racing bets are monitored and flagged by takeout or individual liability not size. I can see no reason why this should change for BB.?

RE your other comment about horse race betting I am a happy mug who achieves long term profit from same.You have every right to complain about trolls (which I am not nor ever would be) but generalizations can bring negative response.?

[Dash Darington]

Originally Posted by sampvt

This is why I make money and you obviously let your jealousy get the better of you. My Eileen bet was an insurance bet based on the edits and only a fool allows the chance factor to weigh lay their judgement. Being greedy is the trait of a desperate gambler. I don't gamble, I invest in betting odds.

I couldn't give a toss about personalities, I believe in the power of the pound not the love of an individual, that's for people like you that make the bookies a fortune with your logic (if of course you actually do bet which I doubt)

Im open for discussions anytime but if you want to turn this into a troll thread, walk on please as I am not that interested in arguing with people that cant reach my level.

As I pointed out, you didn't simply make an insurance bet. You abandoned your prediction altogether. If you were still confident Joel would go, you'd bet 80 at 5/2 on Eileen to cover your first bet, and win 420 with zero risk.

It seems like you've backtracked from your claim about being an Oracle or great predictor of outcomes in the game. That's reasonable. Abandoning your prediction is the appropriate response, given your uncertainty. Your response to the favourable shift in the odds is a sound one.

After re-reading your post I see you're actually describing an imaginary bet that isn't even available to you, not one you've actually place.

[sampvt]

Originally Posted by Dash Darington

As I pointed out, you didn't simply make an insurance bet. You abandoned your prediction altogether. If you were still confident Joel would go, you'd bet 80 at 5/2 on Eileen to cover your first bet, and win 420 with zero risk.

It seems like you've backtracked from your claim about being an Oracle or great predictor of outcomes in the game. That's reasonable. Abandoning your prediction is the appropriate response, given your uncertainty. Your response to the favourable shift in the odds is a sound one.

After re-reading your post I see you're actually describing an imaginary bet that isn't even available to you, not one you've actually place.

Going by your analysis, you seem hell bent on trying to push the point that I abandoned my mantle of the Oracle by placing an insurance bet. Let me ask you this, would you rather win £300 with zero risk of £500 with a medium risk. If you answer the former you are agreeing with me, if you answer the later you are a mug punter. If you don't answer with any logical rhetoric, you admit defeat and my mantle of Oracle stands in tact and you enter troll territory.

Why don't you offer facts not supposition, I am far better placed to argue the toss with a logical debate as opposed to bickering with someone who is plainly jealous of someone obviously more successful that your good self

Now do we agree to disagree and move on, are you just going to keep on digging at me.

[parmnion]

Are you going to pay back the people you told to put the wife's housekeeping money on Joel going, cause they have no money left now to put the insurance bet on.