[James]

It's very unlikely your favourite is going to win the series, or even get to the final.

For example in the current series there are sixteen housemates. Statistically, that's a 1/16 (6.25%) chance any single housemate will win. Even getting to the final is only a 1/4 (25%) chance.

You're a setting yourself up for disappointment by supporting someone, and caring so much if they get evicted.

Ask yourself how often your favourite has won the show (or got to the final).

[chuff me dizzy]

Originally Posted by James

It's very unlikely your favourite is going to win the series, or even get to the final.

For example in the current series there are sixteen housemates. Statistically, that's a 1/16 (0.06%) chance any single housemate will win. Even getting to the final is only a 1/4 (25%) chance.

You're a setting yourself up for disappointment by supporting someone, and caring so much if they get evicted.

Ask yourself how often your favourite has won the show (or got to the final).

Ive got to admit Im pretty good at picking the winner from early on in the series

[bitontheslide]

Can't have any of this logical talk

[Elliot]

Don’t forget if you’re a hot male multiply the odds by like 10 and cut in half the odds for any female that dares to ever cross him

[Beastie]

Very wise James. It's nice sometimes just to enjoy the show! Like for the final I want Cameron to win. But I would still be happy if Cian wins. Okay if Zoe wins and meh if Akeem wins

[Morgan.]

I have to disagree slightly. There are character traits that the public won't warm to, or will nevertheless vote for. Black females an example, albeit overused, but iirc the highest they've gotten is 3rd Place. So their odds of winning are statistically lower based on track record.

Then you consider when they entered. The later into the series they join, the less chance the public have to warm to them, making their odds lower.

[rusticgal]

Think Ive supported 6 winners...and several finalists

[Beastie]

Also if you are Welsh or Irish you are likely to stay in longer

[Toy Soldier]

Originally Posted by James

It's very unlikely your favourite is going to win the series, or even get to the final.

For example in the current series there are sixteen housemates. Statistically, that's a 1/16 (0.06%) chance any single housemate will win. Even getting to the final is only a 1/4 (25%) chance.

You're a setting yourself up for disappointment by supporting someone, and caring so much if they get evicted.

Ask yourself how often your favourite has won the show (or got to the final).

Dont give up the day job James! Your stats are waaay off, there are dozens of factors that go into determining the percentage chance of a win / place in the final,with certain housemates having a MUCH higher than one in 16 chance of winning / one in four of reaching the final. Cian and Akeem for example were highly likely to reach the final four from almost the word go. There isn't a bookmaker in the world who would have given you anything like 3/1 on those. I doubt you'd have gotten evens.

You also forgot the multiply your percentage for the win (it's 6.25% chance, not 0.06).

But again, from the moment of entry until now there's no way you'd have gotten 15/1 or even close on any of these finalists to win.

[edited to fix a couple of my own figures]

[Matthew.]

Originally Posted by James

1/16 (0.06%)

i think you mean 6.25%

[RileyH]

Originally Posted by Toy Soldier

Dont give up the day job James! Your stats are waaay off, there are dozens of factors that go into determining the percentage chance of a win / place in the final,with certain housemates having a MUCH higher than one in 16 chance of winning / one in four of teaching the final. Cian and Akeem for example were highly likely to reach the final four from almost the word go. There isn't a bookmaker in the world who would have given you anything like 4/1 on those. I doubt you'd have gotten evens.

You also forgot the multiply your percentage for the win (it's 6.25% chance, not 0.06).

But again, from the moment of entry until now there's no way you'd have gotten 16/1 or even close on any of these finalists to win.

oop

[Withano]

I also took issue with that 1 in 16 thing. Edit that immediately.

[James]

Originally Posted by Toy Soldier

Dont give up the day job James! Your stats are waaay off, there are dozens of factors that go into determining the percentage chance of a win / place in the final,with certain housemates having a MUCH higher than one in 16 chance of reaching the final. Cian and Akeem for example were highly likely to reach the final four from almost the word go. There isn't a bookmaker in the world who would have given you anything like 4/1 on those. I doubt you'd have gotten evens.

You also forgot the multiply your percentage for the win (it's 6.25% chance, not 0.06).

But again, from the moment of entry until now there's no way you'd have gotten 16/1 or even close on any of these finalists to win.

Well, I should have put all things being considered equal. Point stands.

Originally Posted by Matthew.

i think you mean 6.25%

Yeah, I messed up there. 6.25%

[Withano]

I just wish that people would realise that their favourite will be a dickhead some of the time. Stop defending every little thing they do, its tiring.

Add that to the op if you like, its very important.

[Matthew.]

i just checked my profile housemates and 4/29 of them are winners so i get your point

[Withano]

Originally Posted by Matthew.

i just checked my profile housemates and 4/29 of them are winners so i get your point

8/41 for me

9/42 if Cameron wins

[RileyH]

I only have Helen, Rylan & Jack Dee ffs

[Matthew.]

Originally Posted by Withano

I just wish that people would realise that their favourite will be a dickhead some of the time. Stop defending every little thing they do, its tiring.

Add that to the op if you like, its very important.

this

i just checked my profile again and with all of mine, i can point out something negative about them, or why someone might not like them

[Toy Soldier]

Originally Posted by James

Well, I should have put all things being considered equal. Point stands.






Yeah, I messed up there. 6.25%

It is quite depressing I suppose that these things are never really equal... It would actually be quite interesting if someone put together all of the figures over the years and got some full stats on it! E.g. Is it true that Irish people last longer? Do Scottish people go sooner? Do men have a better chance than women? Does sexuality come into it? I'd guess all of these things do but I wonder what the "statistically most likely" finalist looks like . I think actual WINNER involves a higher element of storylines / what happened during the series but I reckon "likely finalists" can be identified very early on. Cian, Zoe and Akeem were all really likely finalists right from the first week. Cameron not so much and needed that "story boost".

Funnily enough on first impressions, Lewis F was a very UNlikely finalist but would almost definitely have won if he hadn't been kicked... Which actually applies to a lot of "oddball" winners.

[Toy Soldier]

Originally Posted by Withano

I just wish that people would realise that their favourite will be a dickhead some of the time. Stop defending every little thing they do, its tiring.

Add that to the op if you like, its very important.

Pobody's nerfect.

[James]

Originally Posted by Toy Soldier

Dont give up the day job James! Your stats are waaay off, there are dozens of factors that go into determining the percentage chance of a win / place in the final,with certain housemates having a MUCH higher than one in 16 chance of winning / one in four of reaching the final. Cian and Akeem for example were highly likely to reach the final four from almost the word go. There isn't a bookmaker in the world who would have given you anything like 3/1 on those. I doubt you'd have gotten evens.

You also forgot the multiply your percentage for the win (it's 6.25% chance, not 0.06).

But again, from the moment of entry until now there's no way you'd have gotten 15/1 or even close on any of these finalists to win.

[edited to fix a couple of my own figures]

These were the odds, I found, to win at the start (15th September, we'd only seen launch show), according an Irish bookmaker - which might affect the odds given. The favourite 9/2 in percentage terms is 22% (?)

Cian - 9/2
Sian - 9/2
Zoe - 11/2
Akeem - 8/1
Tomasz - 8/1
Ellis - 10/1
Cameron - 10/1
Brooke - 14/1
Lewis F - 16/1
Kenaly - 16/1
Kay - 20/1
Lewis G - 25/1
Isaac - 25/1
Anamelia - 25/1

Actually, when I look at that, they did predict three out the final four.

From https://www.thesun.ie/tvandshowbiz/t...rother-farmer/

[Smithy]

James just pissing on everyone’s parade

[DouglasS]

I normally do not support 1 single housemate which increases my odds, I usually have 2 favorites or so a season

Winners I have supported/been in my top 2 have been;

Nadia,
Brian Belo,
Sophie,
Josie,
Aaron,
Luke A
Isabelle

so I'm doing okay.

[y.winter]

The chances of the four of them making it to the final after surviving every public vote in which they could've gone home (inc. Cameron's decision):
Cameron and Zoe - 66%
Cian - 44%
Akeem - 7%

Akeem was lucky!

[Matthew.]

Originally Posted by James

These were the odds, I found, to win at the start (15th September, we'd only seen launch show), according an Irish bookmaker - which might affect the odds given. The favourite 9/2 in percentage terms is 22% (?)

Cian - 9/2
Zoe - 11/2
Akeem - 8/1
Tomasz - 8/1
Ellis - 10/1
Cameron - 10/1
Brooke - 14/1
Lewis F - 16/1
Kenaly - 16/1
Kay - 20/1
Lewis G - 25/1
Isaac - 25/1
Anamelia - 25/1

Actually, when I look at that, they did predict three out the final four.

From https://www.thesun.ie/tvandshowbiz/t...rother-farmer/

sorry ik i probably sound like i’m on a mission to point out every mistake you make but you missed out Sian, and that article had her at 9/2, same as Cian