Bad News

[Intruder]

yo ppl check this the odds for friday

Science 8/11
Orlaith 1/1

but check these ones

Big Brother Winner
Anthony 8/11
Science 7/1
Makosi 8/1
Eugene 8/1
Derek 9/1
Kemal 12/1
Craig 12/1
Orlaith 40/1
Any Other 80/1

science has moved up to fav winning while joined 2nd is makosi, eugene and anthony

[Intruder]

dunno why i called it bad news, maybe to get alot of attention lol

[Jay]

were did u get them odds from

[ThaGazBoi]

oh yes makosi not far behindd go girl

[Intruder]

hold on il send in the site

[Intruder]

http://bigbrother.digitalspy.co.uk/news/ << check on the left hand side the odds wile scroll up its self

[Jay]

cos i checked nt so long ago and orlaith was 1/5 fav to go n science was 3/1

[Intruder]

hold im im confussed with these odds whos fav to go out of orlaith and science what i just gave you?

[ThaGazBoi]

i dont understand it lol

[lily.]

Don't you think that the odds usually don't make no odds when it comes down to it though. (pun intended). Someone who is favourite can get evicted just the same. I tend not to read the bookies odds or the weather reports for that matter. None of them are very often right. lol.

PS. I like how u used the "bad news" subject title to draw attention to the topic! lol

[ThaGazBoi]

lol same ere

[Jay]

i dnt no i think the bookies r making fools of us lol

[Intruder]

wasnt the bookies was the big brother site got it of lol

Science 8/11
Orlaith 1/1

if they stay like that who goes?

[Jay]

www.channel4.com/bigbrother dats the site i got myn from

[ThaGazBoi]

they get money back..i think

[Intruder]

lol stropz thanks

[ThaGazBoi]

:-D

[Jay]

if u think bout science was clear fav to go over maxwell but science stayed so he can do it agen and i think he will

[lily.]

I was gutted when Maxwell was evicted. He was my #1 favourite.

But, since he left, the only entertaining one left is Science. I even do his phrases and stuff, (I know, I know, I'm sad & pathetic!)

[Ocipital]

Originally posted by Intruder
wasnt the bookies was the big brother site got it of lol

Science 8/11
Orlaith 1/1

if they stay like that who goes?

The current odds mean that for every £11 you place on Science to go, you'd get £19 if he went (£8 winnings plus the initial £11 stake back). Whilst if you placed that same £11 on Orlaith you'd get £22 back. If you's placed your £11 on Science when nominations were announced at 3/1 you;d get £44 back

The thing to remember is that its only with the initial prediction are the bookies forcasting anything, thereafter they are simply responding to how people are betting, in this situation the public felt the 3/1 on science to go was a better bet than the 2/5 on Orlaith, and betted more strongly on Science to go than Orlaith. This created an inbalance where by there was a lot more money placed on Science, the bookies then adjusted their odds to encourage people to bet on Orlaith

(side note its actually possible in this situation to place two bets a couple of days apart so that you are guaranteed to win money, provided the odds on the least favourite drop, this is nearly guaranteed with two up for noms because odds of less than evens (1/1) are unappealing to people, and with only two up for nomination someone has to have odds less than evens)

So essentialy the change of odds is a reflection of how people have betted, they will swing back a little as people conclude that Orlaith is a good bet at evens.

Interestingly the bookies have been wrong with their initial assesment for 5 out of 7 evictions

Week 1 - Fav Craig, second fav Mary went
Week 2 - Fav Derek, second fav Lesley went
Week 3 - Fav Derek, second fav Sam went
week 4 - Fav Derek, second fav Roberto went
Week 6 - Fav Science, second fav Maxwell went

The bookies were only correct on Saskia and Vanessa (and Makosi apparently got the Public vote).

This may indicate that people are placing bets on someone less likely to go, and then voting them out for that reason.

[lily.]

ah hahhhhhhh.. a big betting conspiracy. Good theory.

[Red-is-the-future]

Lol - Oh well, simple really, if Science goes I'm not watching it.

[Jay]

yeh i will watch it but i cant see science going i have a feeling he will stay just keep picking up the phone and voting orlaith out

[lily.]

Originally posted by Red-is-the-future
Lol - Oh well, simple really, if Science goes I'm not watching it.

100% agree.

[Intruder]

lol o well but i am atleast maky still der ma fav lol im not sufferin or nervous at mo but i was last week when i heard maks name boooyyyy my heart lol

[lily.]

*hands Intruder a Kleenex*

[lily.]

Ps. I'm nearly at my 500th post. Apparently when U get to 500, you can have ur own quote below ur nickname. I'm gonna Email Kaz when I get to 500. Any suggestions on what I should have?

[Seer]

I wouldn't read too much into the bookies prices unless there's a chasm of difference in the prices when Science survived against Maxwell he was only slight favourite where as when Saskia went against Maxwell Saskia was a very big favourite to go.

[GlitterEyes]

Science is annoying ill be glad to see the back of him and he is far to arrogant to win. Science has lost alot of support over the last few days and he doesnt seem to learn that shouting isnt always needed. Science is a wannabe gansta and a selfish person. He cant be rational and always feels the need of raising his voice to get a point accross.

[Ruth]

Originally posted by Ocipital
Interestingly the bookies have been wrong with their initial assesment for 5 out of 7 evictions

Week 1 - Fav Craig, second fav Mary went
Week 2 - Fav Derek, second fav Lesley went
Week 3 - Fav Derek, second fav Sam went
week 4 - Fav Derek, second fav Roberto went
Week 6 - Fav Science, second fav Maxwell went

The bookies were only correct on Saskia and Vanessa (and Makosi apparently got the Public vote).

This may indicate that people are placing bets on someone less likely to go, and then voting them out for that reason.
Thanks for the infor - that's interesting. I knew it would be a close vote when Derek and Roberto were up, and also when Maxwell and Science were up. I was gobsmacked when Mary went.

I wish Derek had gone instead of Roberto.