Bookies: Eviction percentages

[Withano]

Julian 56.27%
Chery 31.38%
Coleen 8.66%
Prince Lorenzo 2.71%
Mike 'The Situation' 2.07%

My rounding up costed me 1.09% but this is roughly what the bookies think will happen

If you wanna know how I worked it out, I explained it here
http://www.thisisbigbrother.com/forums/showthread.php?t=209822&highlight=
But got that kind of wrong because I didn't include the extra pound that you'd be betting with

[kistar]

Who's favourite to go then?I don't understand.

[Saph]

Who's favourite to go then?I don't understand.

Mikes favourite to go followed by Lorenzo and Julian is fave to stay

[kistar]

Mikes favourite to go followed by Lorenzo and Julian is fave to stay

K thank you xxx

[aj2463]

ughh really? :nono: does anyone really like Cheryl that much? :conf:

[Kate!]

Who's favourite to go then?I don't understand.

odds are for who will be saved, so Julian with the highest is least likely to go. According to these odds, it's between Lorenzo and Sitch to be evicted. Very surprised at that really, thought Lorenzo would be a dead cert for the chop, the only one without an established fanbase! :conf:

[Saph]

I think Coleen could be a surprise evictee tbh

her rude sister on bots last night wont do her any favours o.0

[HBB1508]

As long as Julian stays I really don't mind who leaves tonight!

[Kazanne]

ughh really? :nono: does anyone really like Cheryl that much? :conf:

yes,cheryl is a lovely lady.

[Kate!]

yes,cheryl is a lovely lady.

[2] Cheryl is really nice, down to earth and has a good laugh. Nothing to dislike.

[chuff me dizzy]

Got to say Im well shocked mike is fav to go ,and Cheryl hasnt got a chance of leaving ,thats my Friday night ruined :bawling::bawling:

[R0B1S]

I don't know how you managed to get these %, but they are just confusing. By a simple division I got % like these (to be evicted) :

The Situation : 45%
Prince Lorenzo: 40%
Coleen : 11%
Cheryl : 3%
Julian : 1%

[Black Dagger]

Sitch is not going to be evicted with such a small %.

[Withano]

I don't know how you managed to get these %, but they are just confusing. By a simple division I got % like these (to be evicted) :

The Situation : 45%
Prince Lorenzo: 40%
Coleen : 11%
Cheryl : 3%
Julian : 1%

Perhaps if it was vote to evict? Mine are what bookies would say the percentages would be on vote to save. However the odds have already changed, I might update in a bit

[R0B1S]

Perhaps if it was vote to evict? Mine are what bookies would say the percentages would be on vote to save. However the odds have already changed, I might update in a bit

Well then what does your 2% for Mike really mean? 2% what? 2% chance that he stays? or goes? Both are ridiculous. I just don't really understand what have you calculated there.

You do understand that odds are for who will be EVICTED right? So, I don't see your point. My calculations are correct (maybe a little off due to rounding).

[Withano]

Well then what does your 2% for Mike really mean? 2% what? 2% chance that he stays? or goes? Both are ridiculous. I just don't really understand what have you calculated there.

You do understand that odds are for how will be EVICTED right? So, I don't see your point. My calculations are correct (maybe a little off due to rounding).

Your calculations are the likelihood of each housemate leaving. Mine are how the bookies are predicting the voting will be split tonight.

[R0B1S]

Your calculations are the likelihood of each housemate leaving. Mine are how the bookies are predicting the voting will be split tonight.

Right. I see. But I don't think you can make such predictions based on eviction odds. I mean - there's no way The Situation and Lorenzo combined will get 4% of the vote.

[Withano]

Right. I see. But I don't think you can make such predictions based on eviction odds. I mean - there's no way The Situation and Lorenzo combined will get 4% of the vote.

No, I don't see that happening either, but they're the odds. Bookies are saying that Julian is going to get 25 times more votes than both these two, and I'm pretty sure his odds are shifting to an even bigger lead

[R0B1S]

No, I don't see that happening either, but they're the odds. Bookies are saying that Julian is going to get 25 times more votes than both these two, and I'm pretty sure his odds are shifting to an even bigger lead

No. Bookies are saying that probabilty that Julian will be evicted is 25 times smaller than probability that Mike will be evicted - and that's it. You really can't make assumptions about amount of votes they will get.

[Withano]

No. Bookies are saying that probabilty that Julian will be evicted is 25 times smaller than probability that Mike will be evicted - and that's it. You really can't make assumptions about amount of votes they will get.

The title of the thread is, Bookies: Eviction percentages, I'm not sure why you expected anything different.

[Livia]

I think Coleen could be a surprise evictee tbh

her rude sister on bots last night wont do her any favours o.0

I thought I was alone, the people on the BOTS thread last night kind of liked her. I thought she was an awful, bitter, distontented harridan. Must be a family trait.

[Suze]

Out of those up, I am really hoping Coleen is the next to be evicted, but just can't see it :(

[Lex]

I thought I was alone, the people on the BOTS thread last night kind of liked her. I thought she was an awful, bitter, distontented harridan. Must be a family trait.

This!....Livia, you are never alone!...How could you be with such impeccable taste and analytical people skills! :thumbs:


Cheers.