Which Party will win the next General Election?

[Patrick]

Was having a chat there with my Uncle about next year's election, and whether Cameron will win another term or not.

Just out of curiosity, out of the three main parties - who do you guys THINK will win overall, at next year's election?

[Joelle.]

Labour. The anti-Tory vote won't be split for Labour and Lib Dem this time (since the Libs betrayed all their supporters). Labour will get a much higher proportion and Cameron and his cronies will only have their staunch supporters behind them. I personally don't think they stand a chance. Fingers crossed... :laugh:

[Jack_]

I'd thought for a while we could end up with another hung parliament with Labour as the largest party but if they get their policies right (the promotional stuff and Milliband's party conference speech last year are/were really good) then they could win an outright majority, but we'll see.

[MTVN]

Probably Labour, unless the economic recovery really picks up in the next couple of years

[Brother Leon]

Another Coalition.

[Cherie]

Was having a chat there with my Uncle about next year's election, and whether Cameron will win another term or not.

Just out of curiosity, out of the three main parties - who do you guys THINK will win overall, at next year's election?

General Election is 2015??. Too early to call it at the moment.

[arista]

Was having a chat there with my Uncle about next year's election, and whether Cameron will win another term or not.

Just out of curiosity, out of the three main parties - who do you guys THINK will win overall, at next year's election?


Yout date Is Wrong

The Next General Election is May 2015
Fact

[Roy Mars III]

Conservative hopefully. Cameron is a great man

[bbfan1991]

Labour, but they are all as bad as each other which is probably why I stay out of anything political, so I don't quite buy into some peoples theories that Labour will magically turn the country around again as soon as they win the next election.

[King Gizzard]

LAB with any luck

[arista]

The Labour Leader is not liked or trusted.


Reported today on Sunday Politics

[Omah]

The one that's not in power now ..... :bored:

[reece(:]

Hopefully Labour, we're in a bigger mess right now than we were in Brown's run.

[Niall]

I think Labour might edge it by a little actually. There's this near universal anti-Tory sentiment across the country right now, and the Lib Dems don't have a hope in hell of ever getting back into power. Ever.

[Patrick]

General Election is 2015??. Too early to call it at the moment.

Yout date Is Wrong

The Next General Election is May 2015
Fact

Awkward for me. Was getting the year mixed up with the next World Cup :laugh: Haven't a clue why.

[Firewire]

Labour, hopefully.

[joeysteele]

For me I think and hope Labour.
If the boundary changes had been passed for the next election then maybe it could have been closer than is likely to be now without them.

The Labour party can be level with the Conservatives and still be the largest party after the election, if they are ahead by anything from 2% to 3% then an overall majority is likely for Labour.
The Conservatives have to be at least 5% ahead of Labour to have any chance of winning even the tiniest of overall majorities.

I cannot see that and the effects of policies like the benefit changes and bedroom tax all sifting through in to 2014 and beyond will make any Conservative revival unlikely and near impossible.

I cannot see any way where the Conservative party can get more than the 36% they got in 2010, I cannot see Labour getting less than 37% so for me it is a Labour Govt with at least a 30 overall majority and likely much more.

[arista]

joey did you not watch the Sunday Politics?


Your Labour has the Wrong Leader

[Cherie]

Awkward for me. Was getting the year mixed up with the next World Cup :laugh: Haven't a clue why.


Easily done lol.
joey did you not watch the Sunday Politics?


Your Labour has the Wrong Leader


The wrong Milliband is at the helm unfortunately.

[joeysteele]

joey did you not watch the Sunday Politics?


Your Labour has the Wrong Leader

I did indeed arista,I would also agree with you as to that, but perceived as having the wrong leader does not lose parties elections always.

Margaret Thatcher was personally well behind James Callaghan in 1979 but still won the election as Ted Heath was too as opposed to Harold Wilson in 1970 but Ted won it.

All Labour have to do for me is to state that they will look again at the structure of the benefit reforms especially the bedroom tax, not repeal it but look at it with the view to reducing the effects of it.
Also that they will set out to repeal what they can of the disastrous NHS reforms wrongly put in place by this Coalition.

To also state they will instil compassion into the welfare reforms and not charge in like a bull in a china shop with no thought for the consequences on the most vulnerable people lives like this lot have.

Those policies would be in themselves enough for me and will be likely for those stating they will vote Labour again now.
I think around 5% of the lead for Labour is a strong lead not a soft one as to peoples thinking.
I am confident Labour will win despite Ed Miliband, in truth I don't think any of the other leaders have positive readings too anyway.

They are not 'my Labour' arista,I had massive hopes for this Coalition as I have said many times.
I feel very badly let down by them.(mainly the Lib Dems), and I don't want parties in power that abuse that power and use it to take a sledgehammer to the weakest and poorest,sick and disabled,indeed the most vulnerable.
These have done that and even when told how much suffering they are causing with such policies, just ignore it.

That is why they will be booted out in 2015, and even if fortunes did improve a bit, they will not in my view, improve enough to bring the Conservatives anywhere near winning an overall majority in 2015.

I also think Ed Miliband is currently underrated, I expect a lot more to come from him up the election and I can see him winning many more over too.

I think you and I probably will need a hotline on the night of May 7th 2015 arista.

[arista]

"I think you and I probably will need a hotline on the night of May 7th 2015 arista."


It could go anyway by then.

[Omah]

The Labour Leader is not liked or trusted.



Is any Labour Leader since Clement Attlee?

:conf:

[arista]

Is any Labour Leader since Clement Attlee?

:conf:

Blair was liked a few times.

New Labour New Tory

[joeysteele]

"I think you and I probably will need a hotline on the night of May 7th 2015 arista."


It could go anyway by then.

I don't think it can now,I just cannot see that.
I am putting in this post today that I predict the Labour Party will win the General election in 2015 with at the very least a 30 overall majority.

I dread to think of your posts on May 8th in the unlikely event that I was wrong in that though.:joker:

[Omah]

Blair was liked a few times.


Some voters were easily impressed ..... :laugh2:

Luckily, Miliband is impressing nobody ..... :laugh3:

The term "lame duck" comes to mind ..... ;)

[Apple202]

hopefully not labour

[joeysteele]

I can also actually see the Lib Dems inflicting damage to the Conservatives too. The Lib Dems will have to alter their stance on issues now and in fact already are starting to.

I can see the Lib Dems saying that if the Conservatives were to get an overall majority, they will start to hit pensioners too as to welfare and benefit changes/cuts.
Since the NHS caused a problem for the Conservatives with the Lib Dems, I can also see the Lib Dems saying that if the Conservatives get an overall majority they will likely bring in the reforms they were forced to shelve by the Lib Dems.
More scaremongering as to the Conservatives.

Sarah Tether is already very much against the benefit reforms and the Conservative line now,it may well be Labour needs to do and say very little to win in 2015.
The lib Dems are on a hiding to nothing likely in 2015, they will desperately want another hung parliament.

[Kazanne]

Labour really need to get rid of Milliband he is holding them back.

[Omah]

Labour really need to get rid of Milliband he is holding them back.

Yeah, not exactly inspiring, is he - just another Mr Dull from Dullsville ..... :bored:

[Kazanne]

Yeah, not exactly inspiring, is he - just another Mr Dull from Dullsville ..... :bored:

He's dire,I wont vote for them while he is at the helm.

[joeysteele]

Labour really need to get rid of Milliband he is holding them back.

I like Andy Burnham, he would have been my choice had I been a member of the Labour party,which I am not.
I have talked to him and respect his NHS views.

However, I cannot see any move to remove Ed Miliband now so close to an election, nor in the other parties any moves to remove David Cameron or Nick Clegg.
Ed Miliband has the poll lead and although the poll lead is somewhere between 7% and 10%, as I mentioned earlier I think most of that lead is a strong vote and not a soft lead that could be threatened.

he could put his foot in it of course like Gordon Brown did many times but somehow I think there is much more to him and that won't happen either.

The Conservative party has now never won in a general election more than 36% of the vote since 1992,over 20 years ago.
No way do I see them doing it next time and that will be nowhere near enough for them to be the largest party never mind win outright in 2015.

[Jack_]

On the subject of Milliband, I wasn't overly keen on his appointment at first but after watching his speech at the Labour Party Conference in Manchester last year I warmed to him. I remember when I went to watch it I only intended on watching about 15 minutes but ended up watching the whole thing. An engaging, passionate and encouraging speech which I would recommend people watch before passing judgement.

oqYGbEY-EC8

And besides, it's the overall policies of the party that count, not the leader.

[joeysteele]

On the subject of Milliband, I wasn't overly keen on his appointment at first but after watching his speech at the Labour Party Conference in Manchester last year I warmed to him. I remember when I went to watch it I only intended on watching about 15 minutes but ended up watching the whole thing. An engaging, passionate and encouraging speech which I would recommend people watch before passing judgement.

oqYGbEY-EC8

And besides, it's the overall policies of the party that count, not the leader.

I know a lot of people who were impressed with that speech Jack, from fellow students,some who were Conservative too.
Also people I just talk to.
What I am finding the more I talk to people as to politics is that the majority of them just want this Govt gone.
I've lost count of the times I have been asked how long is it before the next election, when I say around 2 years, most groan at the thought of another 2 years of this Coalition.

I agree it was an engaging,passionate and encouraging speech by Ed Miliband, also a very impressive one too.

[Omah]

He's dire,I wont vote for them while he is at the helm.

Nor will a lot of the electorate ..... :nono:

[joeysteele]

He's dire,I wont vote for them while he is at the helm.

Hi Kazanne :xyxwave: It's like what you said on another thread Kazanne,where I said I had moved from a Consrervative background to a more likely Labour one and you then said you had come the other way.

As for me, while David Cameron is leader of the Conservatives I would never vote for them,especially after his deceit on the NHS, saying he wouldn't do any full reforms to it but then did.
As for Nick Clegg and Lib Dems,well I 100% will never vote for them with him as leader but then again I am unlikely to consider voting for them again anyway.

I find it really interesting though as to why people move from their support for a party.
At 16, I was a Conservative,now the only party I have any faith in is Labour at least from a compassionate element in politics.
I do take on board the fact you have moved from who it may have been expected you'd support,just as I have too.
Although for 2015 it would seem most of my family are also moving from the Conservatives too.
My Dad being a lifelong Conservative voter, even he won't be voting for them in 2015.

Like or dislike Ed Miliband, I am sure though more voters will vote for the party he leads than any other in 2015.

Too much deceit and heartless policies have come from this Coalition.
They had to,I accept fully, make very hard decisions and choices as to policy but they didn't have to be cruel,heartless and full of discrimination ones too.
That is what I believe most voters will not forgive or forget too and why I am sure they will be out in 2015.

[Omah]

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2013/04/18/ed-miliband-prime-minister_n_3109720.html?utm_hp_ref=uk

Only 1 in 4 voters believe Labour leader Ed Miliband has what it takes to become PM, even though most would vote his party into power.

Labour's popularity has dwindled to a 12-month low with voters uncertain about the party's ability to form the next government, according to Ipsos MORI.

A poll last month for The Observer found 54% expect Miliband to become PM suggesting he is the best of a bad bunch alongside David Cameron and Nick Clegg.

The Opposition is still well ahead of the Conservatives, who are languishing on 29%, but support has fallen from previous highs to 38%.

Overall, 58% of British adults doubt Labour is ready to form the next government while 66% do not believe Miliband is ready to be prime minister.

Although the number of voters that believe he can take on the job has increased by 7 points since May 2011 to 24%, the figures are "significantly below" the poll ratings Tony Blair and David Cameron were scooping at a similar point in opposition, according to Ipsos MORI.

The news may come as a blow for Miliband who said recently it was "possible" he could become prime minister.

Bad for Ed ..... :idc:

[Kazanne]

Hi Kazanne :xyxwave: It's like what you said on another thread Kazanne,where I said I had moved from a Consrervative background to a more likely Labour one and you then said you had come the other way.

As for me, while David Cameron is leader of the Conservatives I would never vote for them,especially after his deceit on the NHS, saying he wouldn't do any full reforms to it but then did.
As for Nick Clegg and Lib Dems,well I 100% will never vote for them with him as leader but then again I am unlikely to consider voting for them again anyway.

I find it really interesting though as to why people move from their support for a party.
At 16, I was a Conservative,now the only party I have any faith in is Labour at least from a compassionate element in politics.
I do take on board the fact you have moved from who it may have been expected you'd support,just as I have too.
Although for 2015 it would seem most of my family are also moving from the Conservatives too.
My Dad being a lifelong Conservative voter, even he won't be voting for them in 2015.

Like or dislike Ed Miliband, I am sure though more voters will vote for the party he leads than any other in 2015.

Too much deceit and heartless policies have come from this Coalition.
They had to,I accept fully, make very hard decisions and choices as to policy but they didn't have to be cruel,heartless and full of discrimination ones too.
That is what I believe most voters will not forgive or forget too and why I am sure they will be out in 2015.

I think Labour will get in Joey,I would just much prefer a diffent leader,I like what Cameron is trying to do albeit a bit harsh sometimes,I don't agree with everything the Conservatives have done,I just think it's the right way to go,we need to stop people getting money for nothing all the time,it's a way of life for some,but I think the bedroom tax should be looked at again,it must be a really tough job for anyone though Joey.UKIP seem to have done well in something today,haven't read the whole story yet just heard a snippet on the news,hurry up and be the PM then I can vote for you.:hugesmile:

[Livia]

It's just too early to say. No one can call it mid-term. They say a week's a long time in politics, so two years is like a lifetime.

[joeysteele]

I think Labour will get in Joey,I would just much prefer a diffent leader,I like what Cameron is trying to do albeit a bit harsh sometimes,I don't agree with everything the Conservatives have done,I just think it's the right way to go,we need to stop people getting money for nothing all the time,it's a way of life for some,but I think the bedroom tax should be looked at again,it must be a really tough job for anyone though Joey.UKIP seem to have done well in something today,haven't read the whole story yet just heard a snippet on the news,hurry up and be the PM then I can vote for you.:hugesmile:

:joker:Kazanne, I am not even really a member of a party yet. I would doubt if I go into politics I would ever get past being a simple MP anyway,that is if I even ever got elected.:joker:

Really fascinating for me though to think that just barely 2 years from now the campaign will be near all over now and election day looming.
Amazing how quickly that time will fly by now,these last 2 years have literally just disappeared in a rush for me.

[Cherie]

It's just too early to say. No one can call it mid-term. They say a week's a long time in politics, so two years is like a lifetime.

Precisely. Voters have notoriously short memories.

[joeysteele]

It's just too early to say. No one can call it mid-term. They say a week's a long time in politics, so two years is like a lifetime.

That's very true Livia.

[Jamie585]

To be honest.. I really don't care anymore!

[Omah]

Monday, 1 April 2013

http://ukgeneralelection2015.blogspot.co.uk/2013/04/latest-2015-general-election-prediction.html

This is from Electoral Calculus - only last month they were showing a win of 112 seats for Labour the latest predictions have lowered this win to 96

Tories up 1 since last prediction, Labour down 8 , Lib Dems up 7

Current Prediction: Labour majority 96
Party 2010 Votes 2010 Seats Pred Votes Pred Seats
CON 36.97% 307 28.62% 211
LAB 29.66% 258 38.72% 373
LIB 23.56% 57 12.40% 31
NAT 2.26% 9 3.54% 16
MIN 7.54% 19 16.71% 19

Prediction based on opinion polls from 09 Mar 13 to 28 Mar 13, sampling 7,878 people.

For those who do care ...... ;)

[joeysteele]

Opinion Polls all have an error margin, all the polls currently being reported show a lead for Labour between 6 and 10 points all within the error margins so in effect near all saying the same.
A Labour lead of likely 7 to 8 points.

It also depends on how and if the pollsters distribute the 'don't know' votes too.
One thing is certain from all polls, the Conservatives are and have been for the last 2 years alsmost now down in the lower 30s, under their 36% they got in the last election.
Labour is in the high 30s, well up from their figure of the 2010 election.

I don't see that changing either in 2015 really.

[Omah]

Opinion Polls all have an error margin, all the polls currently being reported show a lead for Labour between 6 and 10 points all within the error margins so in effect near all saying the same.
A Labour lead of likely 7 to 8 points.

It also depends on how and if the pollsters distribute the 'don't know' votes too.
One thing is certain from all polls, the Conservatives are and have been for the last 2 years alsmost now down in the lower 30s, under their 36% they got in the last election.
Labour is in the high 30s, well up from their figure of the 2010 election.

I don't see that changing either in 2015 really.

I thought you'd like the figures, but of course:

Livia It's just too early to say. They say a week's a long time in politics, so two years is like a lifetime.

What you don't see may change completely ..... ;)

[joeysteele]

I agree things could change but in reality the Conservatives have to virtually reverse the current polling and completely change places with Labour in the high 30s and also to have to see Labour down in the lower 30s.
If they don't do that then they will not be anywhere near any kind of overall majority whatsoever.
Needing to be at least 5% or 6% ahead of Labour to barely scrape even the tiniest possible overall majority

Of course I also agree with Livia, 2 years is indeed a very long time in politics so anything is possible,However nothing saved Gordon Brown over his last 18 months to 2 years of power.
I however feel we are at the probable general election poll ratings now and I personally cannot see or expect anything to come, that will reverse that to the level it has to be to save the Conservatives from defeat.

I do find poll figures fascinating though but I also always keep in the mind the error margins to them too, which is why there are often so many variations as to actual poll leads.

What has been continuous all through the last 2 years though is as I mentioned before, the fact that even when the lead alters,increasing or decreasing for Labour,the Conservatives remain in the lower 30s as to percentage of voters while Labour stay steady in the higher 30s.
I just cannot see that changing now especially with the ffects of the NHS reforms to still filter through and the benefits changes but most of all the effects of the bedroom tax.

It actually does really sadden me that David Cameron has led his party down this savage and massive reforming road,he should have stalled it and waited for better times,nurturing the fragile recovery and keeping growth going albeit small growth instead.
All of that has been costly and that will also be made known during the election campaign too when it comes.

I do also think people are underestimating the impact UKIP could have too in the election,I do feel they will be a force to be reckoned with next time.Whether that materialises into seats though, is another matter and another wait and see.

[Omah]

As they say in the stock market :

"Past performance is no guarantee of future returns .... what goes up may also come down"

;)

[Omah]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-22262030

One of the UK's top union leaders has voiced doubts about whether Labour can win the next general election.

Unite boss Len McCluskey said the party would only be elected if it offered a radical alternative to the "gloom and despair" of the coalition government.

He told BBC Radio 5Live that if Labour say they "believe in an austerity programme but won't cut as deep or as fast, it is my view they will lose".

Unite, which has 1.5 million members, is Labour's largest financial backer.

Mr McCluskey's comments come as there is increasing pressure on Labour to give specific details of future policies and set out how its spending plans at the next election, scheduled for 2015, would differ from the Conservatives' and Lib Dems'.

He's right - with an unpopular leader and lacklustre policies, the Labour Party will fail to gain an overwhelming victory in any election ..... :pipe:

[Livia]

If UKIP continue to make noises that the public want to hear, regardless of the fact that their strategy is virtually non-existent, I can see the Tories trying to form a coalition with them. UKIP's policies (such as they are) really aren't that far removed from Conservative policies and it's not beyond the realms of possibility that cosying up to the Tories could suit them, the Tories and the voters who bother to turn out. Of course... two years is still a long time.

[Jack_]

The thought of a Tory and UKIP coalition makes me want to emigrate :yuk:

[Livia]

The thought of a Tory and UKIP coalition makes me want to emigrate :yuk:

Yeah, I know what what you mean. Not what you'd call an ideal situation for most but I can see it being thought about as a solution, especially by the Conservatives, and I think UKIP would jump at the chance of replacing the LibDems as 'the bridesmaid'.

[Redway]

Labour, I hope. Not because I particularly agree with their politics but they're the only party who seem to be able to get us out of this recession

[Vanessa]

I agree. I don't like conservative. :nono:

[Redway]

I agree. I don't like conservative. :nono:

Not with David Cameron as leader, no...

[Livia]

Labour, I hope. Not because I particularly agree with their politics but they're the only party who seem to be able to get us out of this recession

Although you could say that Labour were instrumental in getting into a recession.

[joeysteele]

Not with David Cameron as leader, no...

I know people don't like Ed Miliband that much but I think David Cameron is actually a handicap to the Conservatives now.

He promised a referendum on the Lisbon treaty, now I would be the first to say he was right to drop that idea because when he came to power it was aready in place.
However to a great number of voters he backtracked on that and it is held against him by them.

He gave his word there would be no full reforming of the NHS in this parliament, he broke that word and badly too.
He has backtracked and done u turn on so many policies, made really bad judgements of people he chooses to be around him that people see him as not to be trusted.

WE recently had a double dip recession all of this Govts making because it didn't nurture the fragile recovery in place when it took power and also take steps to keep growth, any growth going.
Only this Govt caused that and it accused Labour in 2010 of having policies that would bring about a double dip recession when in fact it is this Govt that managed that and still has us looking over our shoulder at a possible triple dip recession too.

He is not believed as to Europe,few really believe he would hold a referendum of an in/out nature if he got an overall majority in 2015,in fact his arrogance at saying he will re-negotiate a better deal and hold a referendum 'if' he is given an overall majority only builds more suspicion of him.
He could have now in these next 18 months to 2 years tried to re-negotiate a better deal and hold a referendum on election day 2015.
Why condition it to the voters giving him an overall majority first.

If voters really want a referendum of an in/out nature,then they should vote UKIP as they are the only ones who would ensure one was held, the Conservatives have never held a referendum as to Europe, as to taking us into the common market in the first place, or for any treaty they have signed in their time in power too.
Only the Labour party has ever held a referendum on Europe as to staying in or coming out in 1975.

For the Conservatives, David Cameron is now likely a bigger problem as to the voters than he was in 2010, the easiest election ever that should have been for an opposition party to win outright,yet, the voters wouldn't trust David Cameron denying him by a near 20 seats an overall majority.

After his savage and heartless reforms that are causing massive distress and worry to the genuine sick, disabled and most vulnerable in society, after his misleading the voters as to no full reform of the NHS too,I cannot see anyone who felt they couldn't vote Conservative in 2010 now doing so in 2015.
Not a chance in my view.

He will though be coming to the country in 2015, after failing on just about all of his targets to say he needs another 4 years at least to do the same again.
What arrogance,I have little doubt and lots of hope that his answer from the voters will be a much more resounding no in 2015 than the cautious maybe he got in 2010.

[Redway]

I know people don't like Ed Miliband that much but I think David Cameron is actually a handicap to the Conservatives now.

He promised a referendum on the Lisbon treaty, now I would be the first to say he was right to drop that idea because when he came to power it was aready in place.
However to a great number of voters he backtracked on that and it is held against him by them.

He gave his word there would be no full reforming of the NHS in this parliament, he broke that word and badly too.
He has backtracked and done u turn on so many policies, made really bad judgements of people he chooses to be around him that people see him as not to be trusted.

WE recently had a double dip recession all of this Govts making because it didn't nurture the fragile recovery in place when it took power and also take steps to keep growth, any growth going.
Only this Govt caused that and it accused Labour in 2010 of having policies that would bring about a double dip recession when in fact it is this Govt that managed that and still has us looking over our shoulder at a possible triple dip recession too.

He is not believed as to Europe,few really believe he would hold a referendum of an in/out nature if he got an overall majority in 2015,in fact his arrogance at saying he will re-negotiate a better deal and hold a referendum 'if' he is given an overall majority only builds more suspicion of him.
He could have now in these next 18 months to 2 years tried to re-negotiate a better deal and hold a referendum on election day 2015.
Why condition it to the voters giving him an overall majority first.

If voters really want a referendum of an in/out nature,then they should vote UKIP as they are the only ones who would ensure one was held, the Conservatives have never held a referendum as to Europe, as to taking us into the common market in the first place, or for any treaty they have signed in their time in power too.
Only the Labour party has ever held a referendum on Europe as to staying in or coming out in 1975.

For the Conservatives, David Cameron is now likely a bigger problem as to the voters than he was in 2010, the easiest election ever that should have been for an opposition party to win outright,yet, the voters wouldn't trust David Cameron denying him by a near 20 seats an overall majority.

After his savage and heartless reforms that are causing massive distress and worry to the genuine sick, disabled and most vulnerable in society, after his misleading the voters as to no full reform of the NHS too,I cannot see anyone who felt they couldn't vote Conservative in 2010 now doing so in 2015.
Not a chance in my view.

He will though be coming to the country in 2015, after failing on just about all of his targets to say he needs another 4 years at least to do the same again.
What arrogance,I have little doubt and lots of hope that his answer from the voters will be a much more resounding no in 2015 than the cautious maybe he got in 2010.

In a bit of a rush right now so I haven't actually had a look at that in detail but should be a great read when I'm more able.