General election predictions

[MTVN]

Let's make them :pipe2:

So this is probably the most unpredictable election in ages. Basically certain it'll be a hung parliament and Labour and the Tories both look to be pretty far off any majority. I think the Tories will scrape more seats but only by a few, it's hard to see how they could form a majority because even if they renew coalition with the Lib Dems they're likely to be short because the Dems will lose quite a few seats (though I dont think as many as a lot of people expect). They'll have the DUP but that's not many, they maybe can work out a deal with Ukip but I can't see them getting more than 5 seats maximum, probably less :think:

Actually I think even if they lose Labour will have the best chance of forming a majority with the SNP. I know they've ruled it out but tbh it probably would make sense and I expect they would at least take them up on a supply arrangement. Labour could also go into coalition with the Lib Dems and have supply arrangements with the SNP and Plaid Cymru which could actually give them a decent base. I expect the Greens will be wholly irrelevant and 2 seats is the best they can hope for

In terms of newspaper backing I am thinking:

Times: Conservative
Telegraph: Conservative
Guardian: Labour
Independent: Neutral
FT: Conservative
Daily Mail: Conservative
The Sun: Conservative
The Mirror: Labour
Daily Express: Ukip
Daily Star: Ukip

Other various predictions:
- Natalie Bennett to have an onset of some as yet undiscovered disease on the live debates when she can't remember how to fund the Greens policies
- Miliband will be involved in a second living room scandal
- Farage will consume over 100 pints in the course of his campaign
- Danny Alexander will do a UK tour with his yellow brief case
- Cameron will bring up the 'long term economic plan' at least 15 times in his sole tv debate

[bots]

I'm predicting a Tory victory with a small working majority. I believe the Lib Dems will be down to 2 or 3 seats, that the SNP will wipe the floor in Scotland seriously crippling Labours chances

[JoshBB]

I think;

Result - Labour in a minority government, with some kind of informal coalition with SNP.
But seats-wise, since it is out of 650 I believe I would say:

Labour - 286
Conservative - 279
SNP - 41
Liberal Democrat - 23
DUP - 7
UKIP - 6
Sinn Fein - 4
Green - 2
Plaid Cymru - 2

In the leader debates I think David Cameron will be called out for failed austerity, broken immigration targets, and obviously the NHS.

[MTVN]

I'm predicting a Tory victory with a small working majority. I believe the Lib Dems will be down to 2 or 3 seats, that the SNP will wipe the floor in Scotland seriously crippling Labours chances

Cor that's optimistic for the Tories! And pessimistic for the Lib Dems. I'll be very surprised if the Lib Dems have less than 25 seats

[bots]

Cor that's optimistic for the Tories! And pessimistic for the Lib Dems. I'll be very surprised if the Lib Dems have less than 25 seats

Prepare to be surprised, i think the Lib Dems are ****ed :laugh:

[Calderyon]

Does UK have a Center party? Or to say it otherwise, which of the ones is closest to it?

[MTVN]

Does UK have a Center party?

The three main parties are all pretty centre these days. Labour are slightly left of it and the Tories slightly right - they're the two main parties. The Lib Dems are the third party who are probably the most centrist

[Calderyon]

^ OK. Thank you.

Do in the UK any of the major newspapers/magazines have election machines ie: election candidate comparison machines?

If you want i can explain it further.

[JoshBB]

The three main parties are all pretty centre these days. Labour are slightly left of it and the Tories slightly right - they're the two main parties. The Lib Dems are the third party who are probably the most centrist

Tories have gone further right recently imo. Definitely in between centreright and right-wing.

Labour is pretty centrist though, which is why they are losing their traditional left-wing voters.

[JoshBB]

^ OK. Thank you.

Do in the UK any of the major newspapers/magazines have election machines ie: election candidate comparison machines?

That's not something I have ever heard of

[MTVN]

^ OK. Thank you.

Do in the UK any of the major newspapers/magazines have election machines ie: election candidate comparison machines?

Hmm this is probably the best right now to compare the parties: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-29642613

The manifestos are all due to be released in a couple of weeks so I imagine they'll be more comparing going on then

[Jack_]

Tories the largest party but well short of a majority, try to govern as a minority with the support of UKIP (who I'm worried will end up with about 10 seats) and the DUP

Then hopefully it falls apart and a second election is called later this year, now that'd be exciting :D

[Calderyon]

^ It´s like a questionnaire form program in the net, where candidates first go and answer various questions about major themes and issues surrounding the country that are happened either before or are happening at the moment. These results are then saved to a database.

Then it´s opened for the general public, where people go and answer these same questions that the candidates have answered. And after they have done that, the program compares your answers to all the candidates (who have responded to the questionnaire) and display the candidates and a party that are best and least suited for you based on your answers.

[MTVN]

^ It´s like a questionnaire form program in the net, where candidates first go and answer various questions about major themes and issues surrounding the country that are happened either before or are happening at the moment. These results are then saved to a database.

Then it´s opened for the general public, where people go and answer these same questions that the candidates have answered. And after they have done that, the program compares your answers to all the candidates (who have responded to the questionnaire) and display the candidates and a party that are best and least suited for you based on your answers.

https://voteforpolicies.org.uk/ is probably the closest thing to that, they show a set of policies for each issue and you pick which one you most agree with then it shows which political party you picked on each issue. It's not officially endorsed or anything though

[joeysteele]

If it comes about that the bloodbath for Labour seats in Scotland doesn't come about and they only lose a handful of them then I still can see a Labour majority govt.

However as things stand and from what I have been picking up from my own personal collation of voting intentions from how voting went last time.
Which I stress is totally non scientific or probably reliable.

As things stand, I see the following likely.
Conservatives 275 seats.
Labour. 287 seats
Lib Dems, 19 seats.
UKIP 5 seats
Green. 2 seats.
SNP 40 seats.
Plaid Cymru 4 seats.

I can see a min Labour govt; supported by the SNP,with additional support form Plaid Cymru and the SDLP from Northern Ireland too.

I actually also believe that such a govt would be a good and successful one.

The only other change that may result is were the SNP to fail to really capture lots of Labour seats in Scotland then obviously those seats would push Labour closer to an overall majority or stronger position.

It should be a really interesting election night this one indeed,as the effects of UKIP in the South particularly and also in the North in a few places, could alter the way things go and many seats being won by really wafer thin majorities.

[James]

Tories the largest party but well short of a majority, try to govern as a minority with the support of UKIP (who I'm worried will end up with about 10 seats) and the DUP

Then hopefully it falls apart and a second election is called later this year, now that'd be exciting :D

You wonder what effect having fixed-term parliaments will have now though. A prime minister can't call an early election anymore; he needs to lose a no-confidence vote, and it might not be in the interests of an opposition to have another election. They might prefer a minority government to carry on, unable to pass any laws or do anything.

[Shaun]

I get the feeling UKIP will get more than ten seats... I would say 15-19 personally.

[Nedusa]

So this General Election is still a Lab v Cons but not to get a govt winning majority but rather any sort of majority over the other so that they can try and form a coalition govt and be the major partner in that coalition.

So many tie ups are possible

Lab + SNP + Lib Dems
Lab + Lib Dems + Irish / Welsh MPs
Lab + Lib Dems + UKIP

Or

Cons + UKIP
Cons + Lib Dems + UKIP
Cons + UKIP + Irish/Welsh MP's

Take your pick from above , hard to know as both Cameron and Miliband have serious shortcomings.

Given the so called recovery in the Economy by the Tories and the rise of UKIP coupled with Milibands serious lack of leadership potential , I would have to opt for the Cons/UKIP/lib Dems option and even that could fall apart after a few months resulting in another election before the year is out.

Tough one to call.

[Nedusa]

So this General Election is still a Lab v Cons but not to get a govt winning majority but rather any sort of majority over the other so that they can try and form a coalition govt and be the major partner in that coalition.

So many tie ups are possible

Lab + SNP + Lib Dems
Lab + Lib Dems + Irish / Welsh MPs
Lab + Lib Dems + UKIP

Or

Cons + UKIP
Cons + Lib Dems + UKIP
Cons + UKIP + Irish/Welsh MP's

Take your pick from above , hard to know as both Cameron and Miliband have serious shortcomings.

Given the so called recovery in the Economy by the Tories and the rise of UKIP coupled with Milibands serious lack of leadership potential , I would have to opt for the Cons/UKIP/lib Dems option and even that could fall apart after a few months resulting in another election before the year is out.

Tough one to call.

Oh I also forgot to list one other possible coalition because it is so unlikely it is virtually impossible ie...

Cons + SNP + UKIP

Now that really would be a strange Coalition..

[bots]

Oh I also forgot to list one other possible coalition because it is so unlikely it is virtually impossible ie...

Cons + SNP + UKIP

Now that really would be a strange Coalition..

When a party has the possibility of power and influence, any combination is not beyond bounds. I still think the odds favour a conservative minority government. If they can go it alone, they will, even if it is with the smallest of majorities. I think the lib dems have blown any chance of being a partner in any new government. They got seats the last time and sold out all their ideals for a bit of power. Can't see the GBP allowing them to get away with that again any time soon.

[joeysteele]

You wonder what effect having fixed-term parliaments will have now though. A prime minister can't call an early election anymore; he needs to lose a no-confidence vote, and it might not be in the interests of an opposition to have another election. They might prefer a minority government to carry on, unable to pass any laws or do anything.

I believe however that although the fixed term 5 year parliament applied to the last parliament that in the next, the then govt; can bring forward a vote to reverse that and if it gets the approval of the commons, then the next govt; can be in a position to call the shots again.

That may not be easy as most other parties which are the smaller ones, support the 5 year fixed term usually.
However it could be a negotiated part of any coalition or other arrangement by whoever is the leading party in the next parliament.

As I understand the fixed term ruling, it applies for as long as no govt; wishes to change it but it is not set in stone for future govts; it can be reversed if so desired and the vote can be won in the commons.

[joeysteele]

When a party has the possibility of power and influence, any combination is not beyond bounds. I still think the odds favour a conservative minority government. If they can go it alone, they will, even if it is with the smallest of majorities. I think the lib dems have blown any chance of being a partner in any new government. They got seats the last time and sold out all their ideals for a bit of power. Can't see the GBP allowing them to get away with that again any time soon.

You are spot on with the Lib Dems, I haven't found any change from those who voted for them in 2010, and I was one of them who did, as to even considering voting for them this time.

I cannot wait to place my vote for another party now, I also think even tactical voting may not help the Lib Dems either this time, as they are likely already on a new low base as to votes now.

[Kizzy]

I know he ruled it out but I want Labour and SNP.

[joeysteele]

I know he ruled it out but I want Labour and SNP.

They haven't ruled out confidence and supply Kizzy or a vote by vote arrangement.

I would love a min. Labour govt; with the SNP supporting same.

The way the polls are, despite the Conservatives huffing and puffing as to the SNP not having anything to do with governing.
It could well be that Labour and the Conservatives end up with between 285 to 290 seats each.
If the SNP then hold 40+ seats after the election, then neither party will in efffect be able to govern without some agreement with them.

We know for sure, no way will the SNP help David Cameron and the Conservatives to be in again too.
That's music to my ears.

[DemolitionRed]

I would of put my money on Labour if it wasn't for the SNP. I'll go with Labour ahead on seats and the Conservatives ahead on votes.

Whatever happens its going to be complicated.