Diagram - What would the government look like if only the youth voted?

[JoshBB]

It's no myth to anyone that the age group least likely to vote in general elections is the bracket of 18-24 year olds. Although we did see a rise from 50% to 58% in youth turnout this election, many young people are still failing to fill out the ballot on voting days. Let's turn this statistic completely on it's head. What if the young people were the only people voting? Using the latest political data here is a resemblance of what Westminister would look like*:

http://i.imgur.com/rb5Hmjk.png
diagram put together by myself

As you see, the outcome of the election would be considerably different. Rather than a Conservative majority, we would be seeing one slightly larger but with a Labour government rather than a tory one. This signifies the vast political differences between the old and the young; which is that younger people are much more left-wing than those of their elderly counterparts.

A common claim is that once you grow up, you tend to lose your left-wing tendencies although a recent study (https://books.google.co.uk/books/about/Voter_Turnout_and_the_Dynamics_of_Electo.html?id=p lYRx0sFT-cC&hl=en) suggests otherwise.

Great news for those on the left of the spectrum, although probably slightly worrying for those on the right. It may also be worthwile to note that the Greens and UKIP both received 10% in the opinion poll, but the diagram does not reflect that at all. Possibly even more reason to replace First Past The Post?

-
Method of calculation here:



Because the electoral system we use is First Past The Post and not a form of proportional representation, a method of calculation for the amount of seats using a national percentage can never be completely accurate however I believe the calculations used below are the closest we are going to get.

The method for this is as follows; first taking the number of votes total, then multiplying it by the percentage given in the opinion poll, and then dividing it by the current number of votes per seat. Sources are below the calculations.

Labour Seats = (30,691,680 * 0.41) / 40,290
Conservative Seats = (30,691,680 * 0.24) / 34,244
Green Seats = (30,691,680 * 0.10) / 1,157,613
UKIP Seats = (30,691,680 * 0.10) / 3,881,129
SNP Seats = (30,691,680 * 0.04) / 25,972
Liberal Democrat Seats = (30,691,680 * 0.08) / 301,986

[Source #1 - Opinion Poll: Lord Ashcroft, http://theconversation.com/how-did-young-people-vote-in-2015-and-what-does-it-mean-for-the-future-41650]

[Source #2 - Votes per Seat: The Telegraph, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/politics-blog/11593854/Votes-Per-Seat-for-each-party.html]


*Disclaimer: This diagram was calculated using only six parties, and therefore more regional or smaller parties such as the Democratic Unionists were not included in the chart itself.

[bots]

As you have no reliable information on how people vote, how can you say this with any more accuracy than the accuracy of the base poll, which in itself was proven inaccurate.

[T*]

um

[JoshBB]

As you have no reliable information on how people vote, how can you say this with any more accuracy than the accuracy of the base poll, which in itself was proven inaccurate.

It was taken on the same day as the election, this is as accurate as it is going to get.

um

Thanks for your input..

[joeysteele]

It is a really interesting graph and result.

As I have said a few times now, I am a convert to changing first past the post,this just helps to reinforce that view.

[bots]

It was taken on the same day as the election, this is as accurate as it is going to get.


But its not accurate enough to project the detailed result that you have derived from it. The problem is that the inbuilt uncertainty could push that projected majority either way ... Anyway, just my input, don't put to many hopes on it becoming a reality in the future.

[ps, the links have an extra ] at the end]

[JoshBB]

But its not accurate enough to project the detailed result that you have derived from it. The problem is that the inbuilt uncertainty could push that projected majority either way ... Anyway, just my input, don't put to many hopes on it becoming a reality in the future.

[ps, the links have an extra ] at the end]

Oh yes I understand there is probably a margin of error around 15-25 seats, maybe even more. But if you look at the percentages (Labour 41%, Tory 24%) you see a real difference.

[Ninastar]

I don't think that's something to be proud of tbh...

[In the Drunk Tank]

Yep I'd say it is the case that young people generally lean more to the left just as old folk generally lean more to the right. People talk about shy Tories and they don't come any shier than young conservatives

[JoshBB]

Yep I'd say it is the case that young people generally lean more to the left just as old folk generally lean more to the right. People talk about shy Tories and they don't come any shier than young conservatives

Very true. I know I'm still in secondary school so most are still quite young to form political opinions, but all of those who do have them do tend to share them quite openly and they are mostly labour/green. There's probably three people who support the tories and like four who back UKIP in my entire school.. but then again I live in the south in a very right-wing area so that is expected.

[divergent]

I'd say Lib Dems and Greens would be quite popular

[Jack_]

This is great Josh and really clever! It looks like you've put some time into it as well

I know there's still a lot of prejudice in the world but I take a positive view that I think our generation is on the whole pretty open minded and liberal, and just as some ism's have waned in severity over the decades, I feel that with each generation that passes on we'll become more accepting and open to all types of lifestyles, and of course that's only a good thing. I've gone off on a tangent there but I'd agree that perhaps in twenty, thirty years time we might have an electorate that leans more to the left than they do now. We can only hope, I guess :laugh:

also on a somewhat related note, I really hope it won't be long before 16 year olds have the right to vote. It's typical that the Tories were literally the only party not open to that suggestion this election, but perhaps with a bit of lobbying it might end up happening

[Kizzy]

That's great Josh and I have to agree with that poll, young people aren't as fear driven as those slightly older, they aren't as affected by the tory cloak of paranoia that is swept over every issue to keep the electorate in a state of high anxiety.
So yes I think they would be more left leaning in a positive progressive sense.

[JoshBB]

I don't think that's something to be proud of tbh...

I do. :laugh:

[lostalex]

what would a town center look like if only the youth designed it? giant statue of justin beiber and rhianna in the center. young people are idiots, i know, i used to be one.

[Kizzy]

My brats are young adults and they're ok.