The Crash is coming.

[DemolitionRed]

We really do need to keep a close eye on the world economy. The latest economist predictions are, late summer of 2016 the domino effect will really kick off.

Maersk ties the decline in global shipping to a FALL IN DEMAND, not an increase in shipping fleets.

This point is driven home when one examines the real-time MarineTraffic map, which tracks all cargo ships around the world. For the past few weeks, the map has remained almost completely inactive with the vast majority of the world’s cargo ships sitting idle in port, not travelling across oceans to deliver goods. The reality is, global demand has fallen down a black hole, and the U.S. is at the top of the list in terms of crashing consumer markets.
http://www.alt-market.com/articles/2787-the-us-is-a…

[Livia]

The Baltic Dry Index predicted the 2008 crash and is now at its lowest point since its inception. If I know that, I'm sure the people who matter do.

[DemolitionRed]

I think anything and everything that predicts a forthcoming crash matters to each and every one of us.

Oil is at an all time low, stock markets are tumbling and we have fallen into a deflation trap so the question is, is there or isn't there going to be a world crisis?

Nobody is blaming Osborne for this btw, unless they are stupid. It wouldn't matter who was our PM or Chancellor of the Exchequer were, if the US crashes, we just get sucked into the shock waves.

[Kizzy]

Why is oil at an all time low, who isn't using oil?... Is there a glut of oil?

[King Gizzard]

Why is oil at an all time low, who isn't using oil?... Is there a glut of oil?

I'm not good at this sort of stuff but I think more and more countries have found their own supplies/become oil rich so the demand is less

Probably not

[smudgie]

Why is oil at an all time low, who isn't using oil?... Is there a glut of oil?

They are flooding the market with cheap oil to try and put the fracking companies in U.S. out of business. It was on the business news on the Beeb yesterday..or the day before.

[Cherie]

Why is oil at an all time low, who isn't using oil?... Is there a glut of oil?

America is becoming big producers and are under cutting the Middle East I think!

[Cherie]

They are flooding the market with cheap oil to try and put the fracking companies in U.S. out of business. It was on the business news on the Beeb yesterday..or the day before.

that is it Smudgie I got it the wrong way round

[Will.]

Why is oil at an all time low, who isn't using oil?... Is there a glut of oil?

Our teacher was talking about this,

Apparently too countries in the middle east (I've forgot) are different Islam denominations and they are competing against each other to sell oil around the world.

So they keep lowering the price again and again, which obvs results in really cheap oil.


I could have got this all wrong, this is how I remember it.

[Kizzy]

Fracking produces gas not oil??

[Kizzy]

Our teacher was talking about this,

Apparently too countries in the middle east (I've forgot) are different Muslim denominations and they competing against each other to sell oil around the world.

So they keep lowering the price again and again, which obvs results in really cheap oil.


I could have got this all wrong, this is how I remember it.

We should have really low energy and petrol prices then...but we haven't.

[smudgie]

Fracking produces gas not oil??

All energy.:shrug:

[Livia]

I think anything and everything that predicts a forthcoming crash matters to each and every one of us.

Oil is at an all time low, stock markets are tumbling and we have fallen into a deflation trap so the question is, is there or isn't there going to be a world crisis?

Nobody is blaming Osborne for this btw, unless they are stupid. It wouldn't matter who was our PM or Chancellor of the Exchequer were, if the US crashes, we just get sucked into the shock waves.

Yes it matters to each of us. But although we can be "keeping an eye on it", you've got to hope the people who matter to the economy are keeping an eye on it.

Oil is not at an "all time low", the price of oil is low yes, but production continues. The Saudis have an enormous reserve, for instance. The USA isn't importing now because they have domestic wells and stocks.

The question of whether there will or will not be a world crisis isn't a question anyone on here can answer.

[Will.]

We should have really low energy and petrol prices then...but we haven't.

oh ok.

[Will.]

Apparently it's not impossible for it to drop below $10 a barrel.

[Crimson Dynamo]

I listened to the Head of Aberdeen Asset Management make a rather grim prediction about the world economy yesterday from some thing going on at mo in Switzerland

[Livia]

Petrol IS cheap right now. And energy companies are being forced to lower their prices. Eon cut their gas bills by 5% this week.

[Kizzy]

All energy.:shrug:

How is the production of shale gas relevant to oil prices though?

[DemolitionRed]

Yes it matters to each of us. But although we can be "keeping an eye on it", you've got to hope the people who matter to the economy are keeping an eye on it.

Oil is not at an "all time low", the price of oil is low yes, but production continues. The Saudis have an enormous reserve, for instance. The USA isn't importing now because they have domestic wells and stocks.

The question of whether there will or will not be a world crisis isn't a question anyone on here can answer.

I meant oil prices, not oil reserves.

Clearly but its a debatable topic if your interested enough.

[DemolitionRed]

How is the production of shale gas relevant to oil prices though?

This link explains it better than I could
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/saudi-arabia-is-paying-the-price-for-its-war-on-us-shale-oil-a6789931.html

[Kizzy]

Petrol IS cheap right now. And energy companies are being forced to lower their prices. Eon cut their gas bills by 5% this week.

We have the 2nd highest petrol costs in Europe, yes one provider has passed on a saving on gas but is it relative?

[arista]

Why is oil at an all time low, who isn't using oil?... Is there a glut of oil?


No its in Storage
now being Relocated from War Zones


27bucks a barrel is a Bargain
Kizzy

Life In The City

[arista]

"We really do need to keep a close eye on the world economy."


Yes I do
no Crash in the next month
Everything is moving well

New Buildings
using Lock Together
Strong Plastic and Steel as Frame base
are Fast Builds
with bricks on the outer Final Finsh

Its a revolution

Like lego

[Cherie]

We should have really low energy and petrol prices then...but we haven't.

Because the companies trot out the well worn line that they buy in advance so can't pass on the lower costs immediately, that never stops them putting the prices up immediately though :idc:

[Kizzy]

This link explains it better than I could
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/saudi-arabia-is-paying-the-price-for-its-war-on-us-shale-oil-a6789931.html

'Taxes on sugary drinks and tobacco, 40 per cent increases on the price of petrol and lower subsidies for water and electricity: the low oil price has taken its toll on Saudi Arabia.'

As a side note this is happening here too, when your economy is dependent on high oil/energy prices to function I guess something has to give.
No wonder we always dragged our heels on energy regulations as it possible a major source of wealth for our economy. If it goes down we crash.

We are attempting as America has to divest into shale, can't blame saudi for not slowing production as they are attempting to compete, as they explain who's to say other oil producing nations wouldn't just pick up the slack?...

[DemolitionRed]

I listened to the Head of Aberdeen Asset Management make a rather grim prediction about the world economy yesterday from some thing going on at mo in Switzerland

Yes it was the GEF annual meeting that went on for 4 days. I thought they were more positive than most about the world economy.

[Kizzy]

"We really do need to keep a close eye on the world economy."


Yes I do
no Crash in the next month
Everything is moving well

New Buildings
using Lock Together
plastic and Steel
are Fast Builds

Its a revolution

Like lego

Prefabricated houses have been around for a long time Arista, it's not the future.

[arista]

Prefabricated houses have been around for a long time Arista, it's not the future.


But Faster High Rise Build
of New Top End Flats
are great.


It is the Future
as they can now build Solid Flats on the Sea, now

Like China building a new Runway on their
Island near Japan.

This New Tech gear
is great

[Kizzy]

But Faster High Rise Build
of New Top End Flats
are great.


It is the Future
as they can now build Solid Flats on the Sea, now

Like China building a new Runway on their
Island near Japan.

This New Tech gear
is great

Ignoring the fault line?... Risky

[user104658]

We should have really low energy and petrol prices then...but we haven't.

Petrol prices are low. 58p of each litre of petrol is tax and the tax doesn't change, therefore the price changes are more dramatic than they might look. Petrol falling from £1.15 a litre to 99p a litre = a 14% price drop (which in itself is significant).

Take the tax out of that equation; 57p a litre down to 41p a litre = 28% drop in price.

Also consider that the cost of fuel also covers the cost of production (you don't fill your car with crude oil, it's goes through extensive refinement) and also distribution (transport, the cost of running the pumps and garages themselves) both of which are also mostly static, it's not just the raw price of oil.

We filled up yesterday for 97.7p/litre. I don't remember fuel being that low ever... I remember the "£1" blockade shenanigans and I was about 12 or 13 maybe so that was at least 17 years ago. I'm sure plenty of you oldies remember it being much cheaper :joker:.


Gas and Electricity are of course another matter entirely. There's a huge, insidious energy molopoly there that's been going on for years with absolutely obscene profit margins.

[Kizzy]

Petrol prices are low. 58p of each litre of petrol is tax and the tax doesn't change, therefore the price changes are more dramatic than they might look. Petrol falling from £1.15 a litre to 99p a litre = a 14% price drop (which in itself is significant).

Take the tax out of that equation; 57p a litre down to 41p a litre = 28% drop in price.

Also consider that the cost of fuel also covers the cost of production (you don't fill your car with crude oil, it's goes through extensive refinement) and also distribution (transport, the cost of running the pumps and garages themselves) both of which are also mostly static, it's not just the raw price of oil.

We filled up yesterday for 97.7p/litre. I don't remember fuel being that low ever... I remember the "£1" blockade shenanigans and I was about 12 or 13 maybe so that was at least 17 years ago. I'm sure plenty of you oldies remember it being much cheaper :joker:.


Gas and Electricity are of course another matter entirely. There's a huge, insidious energy molopoly there that's been going on for years with absolutely obscene profit margins.

Our petrol is bought at the 2nd lowest price in Europe and after tax it's the 2nd highest.

[kirklancaster]

Petrol prices are low. 58p of each litre of petrol is tax and the tax doesn't change, therefore the price changes are more dramatic than they might look. Petrol falling from £1.15 a litre to 99p a litre = a 14% price drop (which in itself is significant).

Take the tax out of that equation; 57p a litre down to 41p a litre = 28% drop in price.

Also consider that the cost of fuel also covers the cost of production (you don't fill your car with crude oil, it's goes through extensive refinement) and also distribution (transport, the cost of running the pumps and garages themselves) both of which are also mostly static, it's not just the raw price of oil.

We filled up yesterday for 97.7p/litre. I don't remember fuel being that low ever... I remember the "£1" blockade shenanigans and I was about 12 or 13 maybe so that was at least 17 years ago. I'm sure plenty of you oldies remember it being much cheaper :joker:.


Gas and Electricity are of course another matter entirely. There's a huge, insidious energy molopoly there that's been going on for years with absolutely obscene profit margins.

Good post and all true.

I remember the front page horror of £1 a GALLON.

Like I remember the weeks of front page articles and coloured wash drawings of how we would all be wealthy and living in some paradise when North Sea oil was discovered.

I can laugh at both now (when I'm not actually crying)