EU Referendum The Betting

[jaxie]

Suddenly, with polls proclaimed too close to call, the betting is going heavily for Remain. If remain wins do you think we as a nation should be looking more closely at how the bookies and/or their customers 'know' and whether there is some potential fix that the public don't know about?

[Liberty4eva]

The Bookies set the odds based on how the bets are coming in. If more people or more money is being bet in favor of Remain, they will adjust the odds accordingly. What it tells you is the people who are betting may be in the know over the outcome. I think it's because they know either people will actually vote Remain or the vote will be rigged so that Remain wins.

The day before 9/11 there were a several fold increase in puts bought in the options market. A "put" for those who don't know is a bet that a stock will tank. Coincidence?

I agree that the betting odds is more reliable than the polling because, as Stalin once said, it is not who votes but who counts the votes. The globalists are not going to let the UK leave and probably a few of them want to make some money on the side by betting tons of money on Remain.

[Kizzy]

As conspiracy theories go I would say that has better odds on being accurate ( see what I did there?)

[Toy Soldier]

Will just quote what I said on the other thread:

Ashleigh was 8/15 on vs manky Helen Wood at 6/1 (on the night) and 16/1 24h before the final.

We do get it wrong sometimes, unfortunately... plus there's not a huge market for politics betting (and usually pretty strict stake limits, due to as you say, insider info) so the bookies don't make a big loss either way, it's considered "novelty betting", along the same lines as "What colour of hat will the Queen wear to Ascot" (a real bet btw :joker: )

It's not true that odds are dictated entirely by the money that's being placed, al though that is used as one indicator of likely outcome, especially with public-vote events... whether that be politics or The X Factor. In this case, it's likely a combination of political knowledge and "following the betting" - there will have been more money placed on "remain", though that's not necessarily an indicator of any extra knowledge. It also doesn't necessarily indicate that there has been a hge difference on the money placed on either side because - in this case - remain was heavily "odds on" before a single bet was placed. In fact, I think the odds HAVE a bit over time for "exit". You could get 6/1 at one point earlier in the year, now you're looking more at 5/2... which could indicate that there has been more money than expected placed on Exit... but IMO is more likely following a perceived shift in public opinion / the press.

Another thing you have to factor in is the worth of a bet. Anyone who believes in Brexit might be tempted to bet on it as it's still worth nearly 3x your money. Anyone who walks into a shop / goes online looking to stick a few £ on remain is likely going to walk away without betting because the odds are worthless unless you're "buying money" (lumping on stupid amounts, like risking £3000 for a £1000 profit).