Win odds following last night

[Calderyon]

Jedward 5/6 - Shortening
James C 7/2
Kim 9/2 - Drifting
Coleen 7 - Shortening
Bianca 25
Nicola 33

http://www.oddschecker.com/tv/celebrity-big-brother/winner

Jedward & Coleen shortening, Kim drifting across the board.

[Niamh.]

what does shortening and drifting mean (I'm not a gambler lol)

[RichardG]

coleen is going to win isn't she, bots were screaming for her last night

in a top two with cosmo

[Vanessa]

what does shortening and drifting mean (I'm not a gambler lol)

Oddds shortening is good. Means Jedward have more chance of winning! :dance:

[chuff me dizzy]

Jedward are NOT shortening they have been this price all week ,the betting odds have been very stable for days now,this is why I started a thread about it yesterday ,Jedward are not firm enough favs to say no one can catch them

[user104658]

what does shortening and drifting mean (I'm not a gambler lol)

Shortening means (technically*) that the bookies think they are more likely to win and you will therefore get less money back for whatever you put on. Drifting means the opposite - less likely to win, more money back if they do.

* I say TECHNICALLY because bookies also manipulate odds for other reasons, for example, to attract bets to a selection that they do NOT think will win. They will cut the odds on a horse / team / BB housemate etc. to make people think "Ooooooh they must be more likely to win I will bet on them!!" when actually that is exactly what the bookie is trying to get you to do...

Odds are also affected by simply how much money has been bet on a selection. The more money has been placed across the country, the more the odds will come in to compensate. That said, for something like reality TV, looking at how much money has been bet on a contestant is actually quite a good indicator of how popular they are.

[Niamh.]

Oddds shortening is good. Means Jedward have more chance of winning! :dance:

:thumbs:

Shortening means (technically*) that the bookies think they are more likely to win and you will therefore get less money back for whatever you put on. Drifting means the opposite - less likely to win, more money back if they do.

* I say TECHNICALLY because bookies also manipulate odds for other reasons, for example, to attract bets to a selection that they do NOT think will win. They will cut the odds on a horse / team / BB housemate etc. to make people think "Ooooooh they must be more likely to win I will bet on them!!" when actually that is exactly what the bookie is trying to get you to do...

Odds are also affected by simply how much money has been bet on a selection. The more money has been placed across the country, the more the odds will come in to compensate. That said, for something like reality TV, looking at how much money has been bet on a contestant is actually quite a good indicator of how popular they are.

This is why I don't gamble :laugh:

[user104658]

Jedward are NOT shortening they have been this price all week ,the betting odds have been very stable for days now,this is why I started a thread about it yesterday ,Jedward are not firm enough favs to say no one can catch them

They are shortening slightly, you could still get evens on them yesterday whereas now they are odds-on across every betting site. Your best price is 10/11. It's not a significant change really but it is still shortening odds. Oddschecker is colour-coded to show exactly that. Blue shortening, red drifting, white unchanged.

[user104658]

This is why I don't gamble :laugh:

It's why I *only* gamble on reality events, if you follow twitter / FB "buzz" you can get some great odds. Helen Wood is still my best coup :flutter:. 33/1. Bear was also an easy win with good odds, as was (sadly!) Trump :umm2:. I haven't bet this year, there's not a huge amount of value left on the board, I wish I had bet on Jedward a few weeks ago :(. I'd only recommend Kim at 9/2 and maybe a small bet on Bianca because of all the weirdness... ... ...

But I actually both hope AND think that the boys will pull it off, and betting odds on isn't worth it (at the moment you don't even double your money on them). The only odds-on BB bet I've ever placed was Gary Busey and I was *****ing my pants watching that finale :umm2: (I put on £110 at 8/11, really stupid bet). Not worth it.

[Time]

seems like a kim win is looking less likely :(

[Niamh.]

It's why I *only* gamble on reality events, if you follow twitter / FB "buzz" you can get some great odds. Helen Wood is still my best coup :flutter:. 33/1. Bear was also an easy win with good odds, as was (sadly!) Trump :umm2:. I haven't bet this year, there's not a huge amount of value left on the board, I wish I had bet on Jedward a few weeks ago :(. I'd only recommend Kim at 9/2 and maybe a small bet on Bianca because of all the weirdness... ... ...

But I actually both hope AND think that the boys will pull it off, and betting odds on isn't worth it (at the moment you don't even double your money on them). The only odds-on BB bet I've ever placed was Gary Busey and I was *****ing my pants watching that finale :umm2: (I put on £110 at 8/11, really stupid bet). Not worth it.

I suppose betting on Helen atleast mad you happy in some way anyhow :fan:

[chuff me dizzy]

seems like a kim win is looking less likely :(

Dont panic, the odds have hardly moved all week

[chuff me dizzy]

I suppose betting on Helen atleast mad you happy in some way anyhow :fan:

I made a right killing on Helen and Bear winning !!

[user104658]

I suppose betting on Helen atleast mad you happy in some way anyhow :fan:

Best £10 I ever spent.

...said Wayne Rooney.

:hehe:

[Vanessa]

Might put a bet on Jedward winning :think:

[Vanessa]

Best £10 I ever spent.

...said Wayne Rooney.

:hehe:

:laugh2:

[joeysteele]

Jedward are NOT shortening they have been this price all week ,the betting odds have been very stable for days now,this is why I started a thread about it yesterday ,Jedward are not firm enough favs to say no one can catch them

I don't bet or gamble on BB but I popped into.a local betting shop on Tuesday to see the CBB odds, Jedward had gone to 10/11 from evens.
If they are now 5/6 that means they are now 10/12 so have shortened slightly again.

Not that betting odds mean much as to BB really.

[user104658]

Might put a bet on Jedward winning :think:

Unless you're betting £50-£100+ it's honestly barely worth it...

[Vanessa]

Unless you're betting £50-£100+ it's honestly barely worth it...

But if they lose D:

[Niamh.]

I made a right killing on Helen and Bear winning !!

I didn't watch Bears series but I could imagine if you'd put some money on helen in that first or second week you would have cleaned up :shocked:

Best £10 I ever spent.

...said Wayne Rooney.

:hehe:

:laugh3:

[user104658]

But if they lose D:

Exactly :joker:. You need to be really confident for a bet like that. I'm about 70% sure they'll win but I wouldn't risk money on it, BB can be so unpredictable at the end. Like I said I did it with Busey and he seemed unbeatable, I was 99% sure he was going to win but it was STILL a scary bet for me! It worked out fine obviously but risking £110 to get £190 back... ... ... the £80 wasn't worth the stress of watching the final :bawling:

[user104658]

I didn't watch Bears series but I could imagine if you'd put some money on helen in that first or second week you would have cleaned up :shocked:


I got 33/1, £340 for £10. I didn't expect her to win at all and was barely watching the finale, didn't register at all when they announced her as the winner, until my wife (not a BB fan :fist: ) was like "isn't that the one you were wanting to win?" :omgno:.

Helen bought me my original PS4 and Trump bought me my PS4 Pro. I'm dreading the PS5 release and the horrible things that will have to happen for me to buy it :worry:.

[user104658]

Helen btw was actually 7/1 on the DAY of the finale, and Ashleigh was 8/15 (almost a dead cert to win). A prime example really of how wrong the odds can be for BB.

[Vanessa]

Exactly :joker:. You need to be really confident for a bet like that. I'm about 70% sure they'll win but I wouldn't risk money on it, BB can be so unpredictable at the end. Like I said I did it with Busey and he seemed unbeatable, I was 99% sure he was going to win but it was STILL a scary bet for me! It worked out fine obviously but risking £110 to get £190 back... ... ... the £80 wasn't worth the stress of watching the final :bawling:

Might bet 50 £, a bit less stressful? :laugh:

[Niamh.]

I got 33/1, £340 for £10. I didn't expect her to win at all and was barely watching the finale, didn't register at all when they announced her as the winner, until my wife (not a BB fan :fist: ) was like "isn't that the one you were wanting to win?" :omgno:.

Helen bought me my original PS4 and Trump bought me my PS4 Pro. I'm dreading the PS5 release and the horrible things that will have to happen for me to buy it :worry:.

omg TS are you actually causing all this horrible stuff?

I have visions of you being visited by some evil witch tempting you with the Play stations but telling you It comes with a price

http://25.media.tumblr.com/6549688618d8653f6df00900aa9142ee/tumblr_ml7feqxsXn1r0y8j6o1_500.gif

[user104658]

Might bet 50 £, a bit less stressful? :laugh:

"Never bet more than you can afford to lose" #ABB #ResponsibleGambling #GambleAware :hee:

[user104658]

omg TS are you actually causing all this horrible stuff?

I have visions of you being visited by some evil witch tempting you with the Play stations but telling you It comes with a price

http://25.media.tumblr.com/6549688618d8653f6df00900aa9142ee/tumblr_ml7feqxsXn1r0y8j6o1_500.gif


"TS... yes you may have a free minor console upgrade... however you must destroy western democracy in the process. There will be huge protests and lives will almost certainly be lost..."

":worry: ... :bawling: ... Do it."

[Niamh.]

"TS... yes you may have a free minor console upgrade... however you must destroy western democracy in the process. There will be huge protests and lives will almost certainly be lost..."

":worry: ... :bawling: ... Do it."

:fan:


what's next though, Trump to press the button? :worry:

[chuff me dizzy]

I got 33/1, £340 for £10. I didn't expect her to win at all and was barely watching the finale, didn't register at all when they announced her as the winner, until my wife (not a BB fan :fist: ) was like "isn't that the one you were wanting to win?" :omgno:.

Helen bought me my original PS4 and Trump bought me my PS4 Pro. I'm dreading the PS5 release and the horrible things that will have to happen for me to buy it :worry:.

I got her at 25-1

[Niamh.]

I got her at 25-1

so how much did you win?

[Denver]

I win money aslong as Jedward get top 3

[sampvt]

The smart money this year went early on JC, then it shifted to Kim now its back to Jedward. The bookies have been so wrong this year its hard to find a bet that makes sence but in happy as I took an american to walk, Ray Hay obliged, I took Biance to reach the final and JC to win. I lost one bet on Austin to walk as he went early but my bets are all well covered and im in good profit allready. I still think 9/2 in places for JC is a great bet and I dont know why but i cant see the GBP voting for Jedward, i honestly cant see them getting the middle of the road last minute voters and they have probably lost a lot of the granny votes as well this year due to the arguments.

[Amy Jade]

The only time I have ever gambled was £20 on Vicky Pattison winning IAC :flutter:

[chuff me dizzy]

so how much did you win?

I won £250 ,just had another couple of £s on Kim

[Niamh.]

I won £250 ,just had another couple of £s on Kim

ah very good, I hope you get something from a Kim win :love:

[chuff me dizzy]

ah very good, I hope you get something from a Kim win :love:

Not a lot ,she's never been really big odds like Helen :worship: was

[user104658]

The smart money this year went early on JC, then it shifted to Kim now its back to Jedward. The bookies have been so wrong this year its hard to find a bet that makes sence but in happy as I took an american to walk, Ray Hay obliged, I took Biance to reach the final and JC to win. I lost one bet on Austin to walk as he went early but my bets are all well covered and im in good profit allready. I still think 9/2 in places for JC is a great bet and I dont know why but i cant see the GBP voting for Jedward, i honestly cant see them getting the middle of the road last minute voters and they have probably lost a lot of the granny votes as well this year due to the arguments.

The thing is... by this logic, Ricky should easily have won summer BB and yet was beaten by Bear.

[Calderyon]

what does shortening and drifting mean (I'm not a gambler lol)

Shortening odds mean that more people are putting money towards that choice than not thus decreasing the value of that choice. Meaning the people that are betting towards that choice/target think that the event (win, eviction etc.) is more likely to happen than some of the the other choices that are available on the same betting target/choice.

Drifting odds meant that less people are putting money towards that choice/target than
some of the others. Meaning the people that are betting towards that choice/target think that the event (win, eviction etc.) is less likely to happen than some of the the other choices that are available on the same betting target/choice.

[Niamh.]

Shortening odds mean that more people are putting money towards that choice than not thus decreasing the value of that choice. Meaning the people that are betting towards that choice/target think that the event (win, eviction etc.) is more likely to happen than some of the the others that are available in the same betting target/choice.

Drifting odds meant that less people are putting money towards that target than
some of the others. Meaning the people that are betting towards that target think that the event (win, eviction etc.) is less likely to happen than some of the the others that are available in the same betting target/choice

Thanks Calderyon :love:

[Calderyon]

http://www.oddschecker.com/tv/celebrity-big-brother/winner

Coleen has overtaken Kim in the odds as the third favorite to win and is about to pass James C. (Already has on some of the markets)

[Wizard.]

http://www.oddschecker.com/tv/celebrity-big-brother/winner

Coleen has overtaken Kim in the odds as the third favorite to win and is about to pass James C. (Already has on some of the markets)

I read somewhere that bookies can manipulate odds to make people think they're more likely to win, so people will bet on them? I hope Tim Booth does a winner prediction because he predicted Angies, Stacey, Jessica, and Calum's eviction.

[Calderyon]

^ Which of the odds do you think are manipulated?

[Lostie!]

http://www.oddschecker.com/tv/celebrity-big-brother/winner

Coleen has overtaken Kim in the odds as the third favorite to win and is about to pass James C. (Already has on some of the markets)

http://media.vanityfair.com/photos/5625347bd475a5ce0f58e2f4/master/w_690,c_limit/downton2.gif

[Wizard.]

The thing is... by this logic, Ricky should easily have won summer BB and yet was beaten by Bear.

What time do the markets close? When the finale show starts? before the lines close, or as close as before the last time the vote freezes?

[Denver]

Jedward have won

[user104658]

Shortening odds mean that more people are putting money towards that choice than not thus decreasing the value of that choice. Meaning the people that are betting towards that choice/target think that the event (win, eviction etc.) is more likely to happen than some of the the other choices that are available on the same betting target/choice.

Drifting odds meant that less people are putting money towards that choice/target than
some of the others. Meaning the people that are betting towards that choice/target think that the event (win, eviction etc.) is less likely to happen than some of the the other choices that are available on the same betting target/choice.

In basic terms yes, but with reality shows they're also watching the shows themselves and the press and adjusting accordingly. If someone has a great show / a lot of social media buzz they'll cut the odds quickly regardless of the money that's being placed. The odds setters are slow to react to social media though, and that's where you can win big, by betting before they notice the hype.

[Calderyon]

^ How do you know that?

You could be be right though. It might be true that they adjust the odds shortening/drifting parameters in the fly to avoid losses.

[Brother Leon]

I can live with Jedward losing to Kim. Maybe even Cosmo, but Coleen... hell no.

[Calderyon]

I read somewhere that bookies can manipulate odds to make people think they're more likely to win, so people will bet on them? I hope Tim Booth does a winner prediction because he predicted Angies, Stacey, Jessica, and Calum's eviction.

He already has.

http://www.oddschecker.com/tips/tv/big-brother/20170120-celebrity-big-brother-eviction-betting-tips-preview

I think he is wrong though.

[Calderyon]

I read somewhere that bookies can manipulate odds to make people think they're more likely to win, so people will bet on them? I hope Tim Booth does a winner prediction because he predicted Angies, Stacey, Jessica, and Calum's eviction.

He already has.

http://www.oddschecker.com/tips/tv/big-brother/20170120-celebrity-big-brother-eviction-betting-tips-preview

I think he is wrong though. He was wrong about Speidi winning.

[Wizard.]

He already has.

http://www.oddschecker.com/tips/tv/big-brother/20170120-celebrity-big-brother-eviction-betting-tips-preview

I think he is wrong though. He was wrong about Speidi winning.

Yes but the Speidi prediction was on launch night and that Kim one was like 2 weeks ago.

[Calderyon]

True. But I do think he is wrong on this one.

I think Kim lost it for her this week. But then again she lost to Coleen in a vote to save before, so she might have lost it way before. And so did Jedward.

We have to remember that although Jedward topped one of the votes and Bianca was second, that vote was the one that Coleen was not in. She was not in the last eviction vote before the vote to win started. We don´t know what happened in the 8 people up vote, cause they only announced the evictee and nothing else, but i wouldn´t be surprised if Coleen topped it also.

Coleen really could be the winner tomorrow.

[Denver]

The only way Jedward will lose is if they dont already have a massive gap between them but u feel they will have at least half the votes around this point

[Calderyon]

^ Maybe.

I really hope they release the percentages.

[Wizard.]

Coleen is now second fav to win

[Epic.]

Coleen is now second fav to win

Vile

[Denver]

Kim is 3rd and James 4th

[Wizard.]

James has shot back up to second

[y.winter]

I find the bookies really unreliable. The results have proved them wrong a few times for the last years, including this series

[Calderyon]

They are more reliable than any of the polls tbh and more often than not usually get the results right.

[Patricia4]

Coleen is now second fav to win

please no

[y.winter]

They're as reliable as the common die hard BB fan. They're not psychic, they get their prediction the same way anyone can -audience research and past results. Therefore is nothing but another prediction, just with the option of getting money out of it.

[Calderyon]

Just like anything is until the real result arrives. To me they are the most reliable one as when polls fail betting odds have usually been correct.

[Wizard.]

Odds will be up and down all day between the bottom 5, Jedward will stick top all day but there's no real indication from odds until 9pm.

[y.winter]

Polls are long time unreliable, it's not a secret. They may have been a good guess when BB was more relevant, but the percentage of poll voters is not that big amongst the actual voters. Polls are for cult fans, which are a small portion of those who pick up the phone.

[Calderyon]

That´s very true, they give you some direction for example in terms of who might be the biggest favorite, but often fail on other parts and could be very wrong.

[sampvt]

looking at jedwards odds, i think the bookies have insider info about a pending vote rig in favour of jedward, probably because mummy has negotiated a future programme deal