A big mistake by May

[Gusto Brunt]

From her point of view. I don't think the outcome is cut and dry as the 'experts' are saying.

May and the political pundits are going by the polls. 'Mrs May is 22 points ahead.'

Err, really.

1) The polls got Brexit wrong.

2) They got the 2015 General Election wrong.

3) They got the Trump victory wrong.

I think Corbyn will get more votes than anyone thinks. I don't think he is an unpopular as the media are saying. The Lib Dems will get more MPs than anyone thinks (except me) and this will leave May falling short and there will be a coalition.

* Place your bets now. :p :dance:

[Toy Soldier]

I said in the other thread that I reckon the smart money might well be on "opposite of expected" (lab/lib coalition being the obvious choice). It's not so much that I think it's a dead cert but like you say, the stats, polls and bookies are consistently getting it wrong lately. I have to wonder if people see what they are "expected to do" and simply refuse to do it, no matter what it is. People are expected to keep the Tory majority.

[Withano]

People keep making the link that polls are inaccurate, so the underdog shouldnt be overlooked
Why is nobody making the link that the polls are inaccurate in right wings favour? This was my take on them. Her lead will probably be more impressive than the polls suggest.

[jaxie]

I think anything other than a Tory majority is unlikely but you are right in that anything can happen. No one really expected the Brexit vote to go the way it did. The problem is that at this time Labour and the lib dems really aren't capable of government and that scenario would be an absolute disaster. I think calling the election is quite ballsy by May but anything can happen so it's dangerous too. Politics is exciting and terrifying!

[Jack_]

Here's my prediction for the next seven weeks:

The gap in the polls will close to within 10% as the election looms closer, pundits will start to speculate whether Corbyn and co can pull the unthinkable off, the Tory machine will go into overdrive with the 'threat to national security' propaganda and come 10pm on Thursday 8th June, Huw Edwards will strike the death knell for Britain as he reveals the terrifying exit poll to the haunting sound of Big Ben.

Lib Dems to double their seats, UKIP and Greens to gain one, Labour on less than 200, the Tories on 400+

[Brillopad]

I said in the other thread that I reckon the smart money might well be on "opposite of expected" (lab/lib coalition being the obvious choice). It's not so much that I think it's a dead cert but like you say, the stats, polls and bookies are consistently getting it wrong lately. I have to wonder if people see what they are "expected to do" and simply refuse to do it, no matter what it is. People are expected to keep the Tory majority.

Trouble with that is as that seems to be becoming the 'expected" reaction then the outcome is even less predictable. Besides I don't think the majority of people are likely to play such infantile games. Too much at stake.

[ebandit]

........while brexit/trump were not correctly predicted these were always very close calls

with forecast little more than 50/50

alas the tories are predicted to be miles ahead........................

Mark L

[Withano]

........while brexit/trump were not correctly predicted these were always very close calls

with forecast little more than 50/50

alas the tories are predicted to be miles ahead........................

Mark L

Good point

[MTVN]

The polls were wrong by a few percentage points in the 2015 GE and the Brexit vote, almost within the margin of error, they were not twenty points out. Even if you want to ignore the polls then just look at Labour's electoral performance under Corbyn - they lost Copeland with a 7% swing to the Tories, that was almost unprecedented. If that happened nationwide they'd lose literally dozens of seats. They also had one of the worst performances of an opposition party in local elections in years and they were beaten to second in the Scottish elections by the Tories.

I highly doubt that 20 point Tory lead will hold but I'd also be very surprised if they don't increase their majority by at least 50

[smudgie]

In the long run this election could do labour a big favour.
Unless the leader of the opposition wins, don't they normally step down, therefore giving labour a decent chance at the next election.
Providing they don't choose another clown that is.

[Toy Soldier]

In the long run this election could do labour a big favour.
Unless the leader of the opposition wins, don't they normally step down, therefore giving labour a decent chance at the next election.
Providing they don't choose another clown that is.

I think a major loss would be the catalyst for a quite significant reform and give them a fighting chance in 2022. As things stand, I don't think they would have stood a chance in 2020 unless Brexit starts to go horribly wrong (rather than just the inevitable "a bit wrong but we can spin it").

[joeysteele]

I hope she has made a big mistake here and politics is volatile at present.

I would love to see this smug arrogant Conservative party get the shock of their political lives for now taking the voters for granted.
After all this deceitful PM has said since becoming leader,until yesterday.

I hope somehow this does backfire on her.

[Northern Monkey]

I agree with Withano,MTVN and ebandit.Labour and UKIP are in tatters and the Tories are well ahead.The only party i see doing any better are the Lib Dems with some sour remainers.

[Livia]

No doubt Mrs May is watching this forum very closely to see where she's been going wrong.

[Toy Soldier]

No doubt Mrs May is watching this forum very closely to see where she's been going wrong.

I'm like 97% sure that you are Theresa May so... yeah... she is!

[Livia]

I'm like 97% sure that you are Theresa May so... yeah... she is!

Cover blown....

[Toy Soldier]

Cover blown....

https://www.imageupload.co.uk/images/2017/04/19/ezgif-3-37f8095750.gif

[Cherie]

No doubt Mrs May is watching this forum very closely to see where she's been going wrong.

I don't understand that comment at all. People are entitled to their opinions, this is a forum where they can be aired, would you rather we closed SD and all other forums, after all I'm sure Simon Cowell isn't watching the BGT thread closely either :umm2:

[Livia]

I don't understand that comment at all. People are entitled to their opinions, this is a forum where they can be aired, would you rather we closed SD and all other forums, after all I'm sure Simon Cowell isn't watching the BGT thread closely either :umm2:

In reponse to the highlighted part of your comment... yes, and that's just what I was doing.

[Cherie]

In reponse to the highlighted part of your comment... yes, and that's just what I was doing.

You were being very scathing of the OP's point, you didn't particularly offer an opinion.

[Tom4784]

The majority of voters will vote against themselves as usual and thus the Tories will win.

[Toy Soldier]

I don't understand that comment at all. People are entitled to their opinions, this is a forum where they can be aired, would you rather we closed SD and all other forums, after all I'm sure Simon Cowell isn't watching the BGT thread closely either :umm2:

You can't comment on any legal issue unless you're a lawyer or a judge. You can't comment on the military unless you're military personnel. You can't comment on the police unless you've worked for the police force. And you certainly can't comment on Theresa May unless you're Theresa May.

Them's just the rules.

[ebandit]

No doubt Mrs May is watching this forum very closely to see where she's been going wrong.

think i will write to ms may saying what a good job she's doing....................

she is doing a good job is she not?

it's like..................i hardly even know who she is....................

Mark L

[jaxie]

No doubt Mrs May is watching this forum very closely to see where she's been going wrong.

:laugh:

[Brillopad]

I agree with Withano,MTVN and ebandit.Labour and UKIP are in tatters and the Tories are well ahead.The only party i see doing any better are the Lib Dems with some sour remainers.

The lib dem are in bed with Labour over Brexit and open borders. Can't see them being a viable choice.

[the truth]

the left and the feminists always demand strong women in charge of everything, now theyve got one there legitimately on merit, they hate her and want rid lol

[smudgie]

The lib dem are in bed with Labour over Brexit and open borders. Can't see them being a viable choice.

With Tim Farron refusing to deny he would go into a coalition with the Tories if need be, I doubt people won't see what a squirming self serving twit he is.

[Livia]

You were being very scathing of the OP's point, you didn't particularly offer an opinion.

I was smiling when I typed it. You're mistaking my attempt at humour for me being scathing.

[Livia]

You can't comment on any legal issue unless you're a lawyer or a judge. You can't comment on the military unless you're military personnel. You can't comment on the police unless you've worked for the police force. And you certainly can't comment on Theresa May unless you're Theresa May.

Them's just the rules.

Stop being silly TS.

[Brillopad]

With Tim Farron refusing to deny he would go into a coalition with the Tories if need be, I doubt people won't see what a squirming self serving twit he is.

He's smarmy - reminds me of Blair. I detest Blair.

[Northern Monkey]

The lib dem are in bed with Labour over Brexit and open borders. Can't see them being a viable choice.

However.The Lib Dems unlike Labour actually have a position on Brexit.They want a re-run of the referendum.They're the stubborn remainers 'go to' party.

[Brillopad]

However.The Lib Dems unlike Labour actually have a position on Brexit.They want a re-run of the referendum.They're the stubborn remainers 'go to' party.

On principle I am totally against a re-run. The vote has been cast and it should not be manipulated by sore losers to suit them. That is not democracy in my opinion.

[Tom4784]

Lib Dems are trash, I'd never vote for them after they sold their souls in the coalition and demanding another referendum is pointless. The Leaver camp have made their bed, now they must be made to lie in it. They shouldn't get a get out of jail free card for making the wrong choice.

[the truth]

However.The Lib Dems unlike Labour actually have a position on Brexit.They want a re-run of the referendum.They're the stubborn remainers 'go to' party.

it is a position, but its a totally insane one,,,,now tim "treasonous"ferrett, jezza protest everything trivial for the sake of it "corbyn and nicola "jimmy cranky only policy is scottish independence " sturgeonwill have to actually produce some policies that stand up to scrutiny lol good luck with that...theyre a real bunch of clowns

[Northern Monkey]

On principle I am totally against a re-run. The vote has been cast and it should not be manipulated by sore losers to suit them. That is not democracy in my opinion.

Totally agree.I'm just looking at it objectively in terms of why i think the Lib Dems will do better this time

[Cherie]

On principle I am totally against a re-run. The vote has been cast and it should not be manipulated by sore losers to suit them. That is not democracy in my opinion.

Don't you think we should get a vote on the deal though? and also don't you think we should get answers about where the money that we paid into the EU is going to go and also how much we are going to have to pay to get out!

[Cherie]

Will people trust the Lib Dems to follow through on any of their policies, they blew it with tuition fees to get into bed with Dave

[Tom4784]

Will people trust the Lib Dems to follow through on any of their policies, they blew it with tuition fees to get into bed with Dave

Exactly, they pretty much went against everything their party stood for in order to get a sniff at power.

[Northern Monkey]

Will people trust the Lib Dems to follow through on any of their policies, they blew it with tuition fees to get into bed with Dave

That was a few years back now though and alot has changed.

[Brillopad]

Don't you think we should get a vote on the deal though? and also don't you think we should get answers about where the money that we paid into the EU is going to go and also how much we are going to have to pay to get out!

In theory maybe, but what choice is there? Most will want to be in the single market and that means open borders, something I am completely against. If we can be in the single market without open borders that would be ideal, but the EU are not going to sanction that. They want to make an example of us, although I did read something recently that certain countries will defend us on that.

The divorce settlement figure is absurd and there could certainly be negotiations around that.

[Withano]

In theory maybe, but what choice is there? Most will want to be in the single market and that means open borders, something I am completely against. If we can be in the single market without open borders that would be ideal, but the EU are not going to sanction that. They want to make an example of us, although I did read something recently that certain countries will defend us on that.

The divorce settlement figure is absurd and there could certainly be negotiations around that.

Out of interest, if it was announced that we basically have zero trade deals and the UK was set for a permanent economic decline for the long foreseeable future, and there was a re-referendum before the deal was sealed, how would you vote?
The more I think about it, the more I lean towards libdems. a re-referendum based on the deals seems like a very good idea, so good infact that a referendum before the deals almost seems bizzare in hindsight! I think most (both leave and remain) could change their mind based on the circumstance

[DemolitionRed]

I think the Tories will keep a majority but they probably won't get a landslide. They will take some seats of Labour and lose a few to the Lib Dems.

[DemolitionRed]

http://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/this-is-how-you-should-vote-to-stop-the-tories-1-4980541
If you want to get rid of the Torys there is a good voting guide here as to how you should vote in your constituency.

[Toy Soldier]

Stop being silly TS.
Never

[jaxie]

Lib Dems are trash, I'd never vote for them after they sold their souls in the coalition and demanding another referendum is pointless. The Leaver camp have made their bed, now they must be made to lie in it. They shouldn't get a get out of jail free card for making the wrong choice.

Punish them all. :fist: :laugh: