Tory MP Chris Davies unseated, triggering by-election in Brecon & Radnorshire

[Firewire]

A by-election will be held in Brecon and Radnorshire after 10,005 people signed a petition to remove the constituency's Conservative MP, Chris Davies.

Mr Davies had been convicted of a false expenses claim in March.

A total of 5,303 names were needed to trigger a fresh poll.

Recall petitions are launched for a number of reasons including when MPs are convicted of providing false information about their expenses.

In 2017 Chris Davies's majority was 8,038.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-48720176

[Liam-]

It’s good that he’s lost his seat, but in that part of Wales it’ll very likely go to the Brexit party, catch 22

[Firewire]

It’s good that he’s lost his seat, but in that part of Wales it’ll very likely go to the Brexit party, catch 22

Unless Lib Dems are able to pull it back, they were 2nd in 2017.

But I don't know much about Welsh politics.

[arista]

It’s good that he’s lost his seat, but in that part of Wales it’ll very likely go to the Brexit party, catch 22



That will make a nice change

[Liam-]

That will make a nice change

No, it really wouldn’t

[Liam-]

Unless Lib Dems are able to pull it back, they were 2nd in 2017.

But I don't know much about Welsh politics.

We’ve pretty much been a heavy Labour country for as long as I can remember, but with us voting for leave in a majority and they’re now peddling the ‘Wales is being forgotten!’ Nonsense, it would be very surprising if they didn’t take it

[bots]

Glad mp's are being dethroned for criminal activity, it's about time

[joeysteele]

I can agree for expenses issues.
An MP ought to be possibly deselected.

However I am not a supporter of this recall process as it stands.

Over 41,000 voted in this seat in 2017.
To have 25% wanting to sack the MP while 75% express no view, of those who voted in 2017.

Just doesn't sit well with me.
No matter who or what Party won the seat.

[arista]

They are saying this will be on August 1st

[arista]

The Anti Brexit Party's Green etc
are saying they will all back LibDem at the ByElection

Reported today on Politics Live BBC1HD shorter show
last 10mins

[Livia]

We’ve pretty much been a heavy Labour country for as long as I can remember, but with us voting for leave in a majority and they’re now peddling the ‘Wales is being forgotten!’ Nonsense, it would be very surprising if they didn’t take it

I genuinely thought you were Scottish, Liam. And there under your avi it says "Cardiff". How'd I miss that for so long? No I'm going to have to read your posts with a completely different accent in my head.


Glad mp's are being dethroned for criminal activity, it's about time

Me too. They should regularly be reminded that they're public servants.

[arista]

Thursday, 1 August
2019 Brecon and Radnorshire by-election

[joeysteele]

Thursday, 1 August
2019 Brecon and Radnorshire by-election

I actually hope the Conservatives hold this seat but doubt they will.

Labour has no chance and I'd never want the Brexit party to win a seat.

So it's between Cons and Lib Dems.
What a horrendous choice.

So may as well leave it in Conservative hands.

[MTVN]

The Tories have re-selected Chris Davies for it so they've basically written it off, Lib Dems will win quite comfortably imo reducing Boris' majority to 3

[joeysteele]

The Tories have re-selected Chris Davies for it so they've basically written it off, Lib Dems will win quite comfortably imo reducing Boris' majority to 3

I'm sure you're right.

Have to get ready for Jo Swinson screaming at the victory then.
Oh well.

[bots]

I like Jo :blush:

[Kizzy]

Glad mp's are being dethroned for criminal activity, it's about time

This

[arista]

A few days
Thursday By-election 1st of August

Most are saying LibDems will win it,
unless there is a sudden change.

[Twosugars]

A few days
Thursday By-election 1st of August

Most are saying LibDems will win it,
unless there is a sudden change.

No boris bounce then?

Oh well... :hee:

[arista]

1156878772773277696


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EA4QtJPXUAEOfNI?format=jpg&name=medium

[arista]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EA0z8T1XUAAonqO?format=jpg&name=small

[joeysteele]

Not a smart move the Conservatives selecting him again.
Doesn't portray a good message.

Somehow though, I'd rather the Conservatives held this seat.

[bots]

What it means is that literally no-one of a conservative persuasion wanted to contest the seat other than the crook. I think the chances of a tory win are as close to zero as it's possible to get

[joeysteele]

What it means is that literally no-one of a conservative persuasion wanted to contest the seat other than the crook. I think the chances of a tory win are as close to zero as it's possible to get

I sgree.

[Twosugars]

What it means is that literally no-one of a conservative persuasion wanted to contest the seat other than the crook. I think the chances of a tory win are as close to zero as it's possible to get

Still, it reflects badly on the party for letting him run

[bots]

Still, it reflects badly on the party for letting him run

it's democracy

[Twosugars]

it's democracy

You missing the point
Selecting an unsuitable candidate shows contempt for the electorate

[bots]

there are lots of inappropriate candidates that stand for the major parties all the time

[Twosugars]

there are lots of inappropriate candidates that stand for the major parties all the time

Well, it's wrong. Someone has to start changing it

[Kizzy]

there are lots of inappropriate candidates that stand for the major parties all the time

Then the parties are doing the electorate a disservice.

[Greg!]

I love a good by election :love:

Get the Tory expenses cheat OUT!

[joeysteele]

It is rather bizarre to select a candidate the constituents in effect sacked as an MP themselves.

[Kizzy]

I know ... thick skinned or what? I can't see how it's allowed to be honest :/

[Twosugars]

It is rather bizarre to select a candidate the constituents in effect sacked as an MP themselves.

It's arrogant tbh

[MTVN]

Well the Tories know they won't win it basically and this way Davies owns the defeat rather than it being a black mark on Johnson

[MTVN]

I am just sad we don't have a This Week by election special for this one

[MTVN]

Looks like it'll be closer than thought between Cons and Lib Dems with Brexit Party well third. Irony is that Tories probs would have held the seat if the Brexit Party hadn't stood yet they've now handed the result to the Lib Dems most likely

[arista]

I am just sad we don't have a This Week by election special for this one


Yes.


The LibDem Lady Won It.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EA34SYLXUAYDgAR?format=jpg&name=900x900
Jane Dodds MP LibDem Winner

[bots]

It must surely be a wakeup call for labour. To come 4th when in opposition is a dreadful result. Maybe Corbyn will think twice about calling for a GE now

[arista]

it must surely be a wakeup call for labour. To come 4th when in opposition is a dreadful result. Maybe corbyn will think twice about calling for a ge now


ldem: 43.5% (+14.3)
con: 39.0% (-9.6)
brex: 10.5% (+10.5)
lab: 5.3% (-12.5)
mrlp: 1.0% (+1.0)
ukip: 0.8% (-0.6)


Brexit Party splits the Conservative vote

[joeysteele]

It must surely be a wakeup call for labour. To come 4th when in opposition is a dreadful result. Maybe Corbyn will think twice about calling for a GE now

Not in this seat.
Labour has been well behind in this seat for a good few elections now.

Never had a hope to do well here.
For the Brexit party in a leave voting seat this was poor.

This billing was a Con v LibDem show only.
In a general election, this result in Con LibDem marginals could see many Conservative seats fall to Lib Dems.

It indicates again, a likely hung Parliament.
Now Conservatives largest party again but with probably less seats than they have now.

I think Corbyn will still want a general election.
An election on these figures could mean, the Conservatives and DUP could not command a majority in parliament together.

[Kizzy]

Not another condem coalition...Are people really that stupid?

[arista]

1157187835537100800

[bots]

Not in this seat.
Labour has been well behind in this seat for a good few elections now.

Never had a hope to do well here.
For the Brexit party in a leave voting seat this was poor.

This billing was a Con v LibDem show only.
In a general election, this result in Con LibDem marginals could see many Conservative seats fall to Lib Dems.

It indicates again, a likely hung Parliament.
Now Conservatives largest party again but with probably less seats than they have now.

I think Corbyn will still want a general election.
An election on these figures could mean, the Conservatives and DUP could not command a majority in parliament together.

by elections are typically a method for the opposition to strike when the government are in power. Lets face it, the tories put up a crook and would have won if not for the brexit party :laugh:

Politics is a disgrace at the moment, there is no-one in parliament that deserves our trust

[Liam-]

Labour was never going to win that seat, they haven’t won it since the 70’s, it’s constantly been a Tory/LD seat, even Tony Blair with a majority only came third there.

Ironically, a mixture of a split of Tory votes with the Brexit party and a remain party alliance sealed it for the Dems, Farage ****s things up again :hee:

I’m still not sure how I feel about this LibDem surge though, with Jo’s voting record and her eagerness to prop up another Tory government, it’s hardly the ‘progressive’ party they claim to be, but if they win a few seats in a couple of by-elections and chip away at the majority enough to call a GE then crack on

[Crimson Dynamo]

poor lib dems they really are the party to vote for when there is nothing else

[joeysteele]

Labour was never going to win that seat, they haven’t won it since the 70’s, it’s constantly been a Tory/LD seat, even Tony Blair with a majority only came third there.

Ironically, a mixture of a split of Tory votes with the Brexit party and a remain party alliance sealed it for the Dems, Farage ****s things up again :hee:

I’m still not sure how I feel about this LibDem surge though, with Jo’s voting record and her eagerness to prop up another Tory government, it’s hardly the ‘progressive’ party they claim to be, but if they win a few seats in a couple of by-elections and chip away at the majority enough to call a GE then crack on


Yes, I agree with all you say.
It's telling that Labour did not really even do well in Blair's tidal wave to power here.

I'd guess too, some Labour voters backed the Lib Dem here.

I would doubt in another hung Parliament, that the Lib Dems would enter a coalition with the Conservatives.
Although I don't trust Jo Swinson whatsoever.

[Oliver_W]

1157187835537100800

A victory is a victory, I'm not gonna take it away from her.

If the Tories lost votes to the Brexit party, they should have done something about it before the hustings were over.

[user104658]

Not Brexit Party siphoning away too many Tories to make the Tories viable whilst not gathering enough to make themselves viable :joker:. Wups.

[reece(:]

12 and a half thousand people still voting for that crook of a conservative :skull:

[reece(:]

The Conservative’s grip on a majority in Parliament now hangs on just one MP as they currently hold a majority of 319 MPs to 318 in opposition, excluding seven Sinn Fein MPs who do not take their seats in Parliament. This tenuous majority includes 10 DUP MPs who agreed to vote with the Tories on matters of confidence and spending, also known as supply.


:joker::joker::joker:

[Kizzy]

Come on now Sinn Fein ya big set of eejits ye!!
(Sorry Niamh)

[Underscore]

I am so happy at the result. I couldn't get down to B&R but I know how much hard work our activists put in every day!

[Cherie]

given what had gone on it is pretty incredible that the cons came second :joker:

em: 43.5% (+14.3)
con: 39.0% (-9.6)
brex: 10.5% (+10.5)
lab: 5.3% (-12.5)
mrlp: 1.0% (+1.0)
ukip: 0.8% (-0.6)

[bots]

given what had gone on it is pretty incredible that the cons came second :joker:

em: 43.5% (+14.3)
con: 39.0% (-9.6)
brex: 10.5% (+10.5)
lab: 5.3% (-12.5)
mrlp: 1.0% (+1.0)
ukip: 0.8% (-0.6)

cons being the operative word :laugh:

[Cherie]

cons being the operative word :laugh:

honestly, I thought they would be last!

[bots]

honestly, I thought they would be last!

we can all kneel and thank the brexit party for stopping a crook get elected :laugh:

Also, with the cons majority reduced, it makes the likelihood of brexit that bit less ... the irony is quite special

[Withano]

Good! Letting the tories lose their minority slowly is probably more fun than that time Tez lost her majority overnight.

[Twosugars]

Good! Letting the tories lose their minority slowly is probably more fun than that time Tez lost her majority overnight.

That was a sweet night tho :flutter:

[reece(:]

Good! Letting the tories lose their minority slowly is probably more fun than that time Tez lost her majority overnight.

https://66.media.tumblr.com/384fd13fec62ba8a45d2b0a8fc5e0f8c/tumblr_inline_p6oumtsxWx1sipzka_500.gif

[joeysteele]

I also think there are, no matter how squeezed votes are achieved.
Some voters will not vote that way.
UKIP votes have flooded to the Brexit party.
There are still a few hundred voters who will still unshakingly vote UKIP however.

I think the Brexit party vote was squeezed all it could be.
Had those 3000+ Brexit party votes not been able to be cast for the Brexit party.
I'd guess, some would have gone back to UKIP and others just not voted at all.

As to the selection of Chris Davies again.
I disagreed with that.
However maybe this getting rid of a sitting MP by constituents, needs to have to result in over half of the constituents demanding that.

It is very likely he himself held a good personal vote in the constituency.
No matter his wrong as to expenses.

[Cherie]

we can all kneel and thank the brexit party for stopping a crook get elected :laugh:

Also, with the cons majority reduced, it makes the likelihood of brexit that bit less ... the irony is quite special

:laugh: it sure is

[Twosugars]

Going for the hardest possible brexit will alienate moderate tories




One former cabinet minister said they believed swathes of seats were now at risk, including Cheltenham, Chippenham, Guildford and even Surrey Heath, the seat of Michael Gove.

“Threatening no deal essentially hands our core seats across the south-west, south-east and south coast to the Lib Dems,” the ex-minister said. “We’ll lose tons of decent MPs. The Lib Dems will pick off lots of the big beasts in Surrey and have some spectacular gains. Worst of all the new northern core will never materialise – the Labour vote is tribal. It’s a suicidal vote strategy. I’m beginning to think Dominic Cummings is a Lib Dem sleeper agent.”


https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/02/boris-johnson-warned-he-could-lose-control-of-parliament

[Livia]

Laughing at the people celebrating the Tories' loss, while their own party languished in fourth place with a miserable 5% of the vote.

[Twosugars]

we can all kneel and thank the brexit party for stopping a crook get elected :laugh:

Also, with the cons majority reduced, it makes the likelihood of brexit that bit less ... the irony is quite special

The irony is delicious :hee:

[Withano]

Laughing at the people celebrating the Tories' loss, while their own party languished in fourth place with a miserable 5% of the vote.

People vote tactically. The 10% of brexit votes and the 5% of labour votes were casted by people that wasted their time.

[joeysteele]

People vote tactically. The 10% of brexit votes and the 5% of labour votes were casted by people that wasted their time.

It's unbelievable.

Anyone understanding politics knows tactical voting takes place.
Labour hasn't done well in Brecon since early 70s.
They dropped one place further to 4th.
Never ever going to do well in this seat now.

Some Labour votes will have gone to Lib Dem re brexit.

Just to set the record straight, I wanted the Cons to hold this seat as I've said on this thread.
A majority of 1 or 2 or 3.in parliament is as tight as it gets anyway.

I think there will be a small number of Conservative MPs defecting to the Lib Dems anyway.

However deflecting from the Conservative loss here by getting a dig at a party again who could never likely do well in this seat. As Liam said earlier, not since the 70s has Labour been a runner here.

It is one the stronger Conservative and Lib Dem battles.
I never cared where Labour came in this seat.
The result signifies possibly a loss of upwards of 30+ Conservative seats to the Lib Dems.
Maybe that's the stronger point to consider.

[Underscore]

Laughing at the people celebrating the Tories' loss, while their own party languished in fourth place with a miserable 5% of the vote.

I'm a Lib Dem

[Tom4784]

Bad losers need to laugh at other competitors to feel bad about losing themselves, I guess.

As long as the Brexit Party continues to flop in these snap elections, I'm happy.