View Full Version : Britain on the verge of another recession
Scarlett.
09-08-2019, 09:55 PM
https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2019/04/05/02/11884622-6888695-image-a-50_1554426439505.jpg
Britain is now one step away from a recession.
The economy shrank in the second quarter of the year and since a technical recession is defined as two successive quarters of contraction, that means another similar three months of growth between now and the end of September would tip the UK into its first recession since the financial crisis.
Many economists expected a weak quarter of growth in Q2. Indeed, the average forecast was for a flatlining of 0%.
They knew that there was lots of stockpiling in the first quarter as companies prepared themselves for the first Brexit deadline; they knew after such moments the economy often contracts; they knew too that many factories had timetabled shutdowns for after that March deadline.
They knew it would be weak, but not this weak.
So why did the economy fare worse than those expectations?
In large, part of it is because each part of the economy fared worse than those expectations.
Not only did the manufacturing sector contract, it contracted at the fastest rate since the deep 2009 recession.
Moreover, the services sector, which provides around 80% of the growth in the economy, grew at a far slower rate than usual - the weakest rate in three years.
So this was a perfect storm - all parts of the UK economy slowing or contracting in unison.
However, there was one bright spot.
Despite the slowdown in spending and activity among businesses, household spending remains relatively robust, with growth around the same as in the first quarter.
Businesses may be battening down the hatches ahead of Brexit, but households are not.
Still, there is no reason to fear that the UK is inevitably heading towards a recession.
At present most economists expect an expansion in the third quarter of the year - perhaps around 0.3%.
That said, much depends now on the state of business confidence between now and the next Brexit deadline.
The final irony? We will not know for sure whether the UK is in recession until after that deadline has passed.
Sky News (https://news.sky.com/story/uk-recession-depends-on-state-of-business-confidence-ahead-of-brexit-deadline-11780745)
reece(:
09-08-2019, 09:59 PM
Still, there is no reason to fear that the UK is inevitably heading towards a recession.
https://media1.tenor.com/images/ebed2ea1afde9afb633f15e2075dfce7/tenor.gif?itemid=4669624
Kizzy
09-08-2019, 09:59 PM
Of course it is... but the Tories are ace and brexit will be phenomenal!
Pfffft!
I'm stockpiling ramen.
Vicky.
09-08-2019, 10:03 PM
Fairly sure its inevitable we will have a recession with all the Brexit crap. Surely this will not shock anyone?!
That's the least of our worries.
Twosugars
09-08-2019, 10:25 PM
Brexit just keeps on giving
arista
10-08-2019, 01:02 AM
Italy already is one
And Germany will be next
Oliver_W
10-08-2019, 06:58 AM
So c'mon Boris, help out businesses! Slash all rates negatively affecting businesses, and give them tax incentives :)
https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2019/04/05/02/11884622-6888695-image-a-50_1554426439505.jpg
Britain is now one step away from a recession.
The economy shrank in the second quarter of the year and since a technical recession is defined as two successive quarters of contraction, that means another similar three months of growth between now and the end of September would tip the UK into its first recession since the financial crisis.
Many economists expected a weak quarter of growth in Q2. Indeed, the average forecast was for a flatlining of 0%.
They knew that there was lots of stockpiling in the first quarter as companies prepared themselves for the first Brexit deadline; they knew after such moments the economy often contracts; they knew too that many factories had timetabled shutdowns for after that March deadline.
They knew it would be weak, but not this weak.
So why did the economy fare worse than those expectations?
In large, part of it is because each part of the economy fared worse than those expectations.
Not only did the manufacturing sector contract, it contracted at the fastest rate since the deep 2009 recession.
Moreover, the services sector, which provides around 80% of the growth in the economy, grew at a far slower rate than usual - the weakest rate in three years.
So this was a perfect storm - all parts of the UK economy slowing or contracting in unison.
However, there was one bright spot.
Despite the slowdown in spending and activity among businesses, household spending remains relatively robust, with growth around the same as in the first quarter.
Businesses may be battening down the hatches ahead of Brexit, but households are not.
Still, there is no reason to fear that the UK is inevitably heading towards a recession.
At present most economists expect an expansion in the third quarter of the year - perhaps around 0.3%.
That said, much depends now on the state of business confidence between now and the next Brexit deadline.
The final irony? We will not know for sure whether the UK is in recession until after that deadline has passed.
Sky News (https://news.sky.com/story/uk-recession-depends-on-state-of-business-confidence-ahead-of-brexit-deadline-11780745)
...sadly some businesses, especially smaller ones...would not survive a recession...the pic in your OP, Dia...is so familiar of town landscapes in the U.K. atm...so many closures and empty premises...:sad:...I do often wonder what town and city landscapes will look like for our next generation...
...sadly some businesses, especially smaller ones...would not survive a recession...the pic in your OP, Dia...is so familiar of town landscapes in the U.K. atm...so many closures and empty premises...:sad:...I do often wonder what town and city landscapes will look like for our next generation...Yeah it's such a sad sight seeing all the closed stores and downtrodden streets in towns that were once bustling, I genuinely dont think those towns will ever be the way they were in the past.
The thing is though (obviously I'm not sure if it's the same everywhere) but the council's future plans for town centres and high streets sadly don't include any stores and businesses, our council revealed plans and images for some of the town centres a while back and they apparently want them to be community 'hubs' with health centres, seating areas, social housing and possibly a few boutiques. Nothing like any of the town centres I've ever known.
Cherie
10-08-2019, 08:12 AM
Yeah it's such a sad sight seeing all the closed stores and downtrodden streets in towns that were once bustling, I genuinely dont think those towns will ever be the way they were in the past.
The thing is though (obviously I'm not sure if it's the same everywhere) but the council's future plans for town centres and high streets sadly don't include any stores and businesses, our council revealed plans and images for some of the town centres a while back and they apparently want them to be community 'hubs' with health centres, seating areas, social housing and possibly a few boutiques. Nothing like any of the town centres I've ever known.
isn't that more to do with our penchant for internet shopping though than recession, we are not currently in recession and haven't been for years so the way the high street looks now can't be blamed on Brexit for a change!
isn't that more to do with our penchant for internet shopping though than recession, we are not currently in recession and haven't been for years so the way the high street looks now can't be blamed on Brexit for a change!Oh yeah I would say its partly that and party the councils to blame, I wasnt suggesting Brexit was the cause of downfall of town centres.
Nicky91
10-08-2019, 08:17 AM
Brexit just keeps on giving
the rich stay rich, and the poor will be even more poor
yep brexit was so good for UK, no more trade deals with rest of europe is so good for UK
so far you guys had already lost the EMA (european medical agency) FDA (food, drug, administration) offices due to brexit
and now being on the verge of another recession
EU did try to persuade you guys into leaving with a deal, or remaining in EU but so much divide in the country, and some people who saw that as ''scare tactics''
but what i try to say, UK loses more with a brexit than they gain
Cherie
10-08-2019, 08:19 AM
Oh yeah I would say its partly that and party the councils to blame, I wasnt suggesting Brexit was the cause of downfall of town centres.
our local shopping centre has had a complete revamp, it was dying on its legs especially as since Westfield in Stratford was built, they have free play areas for kids, street food vans and live music and the place is heaving now even during the week, they need to bring the footfall now via other means, as shops themselves are not enough to attract customers any more
our local shopping centre has had a complete revamp, it was dying on its legs especially as since Westfield in Stratford was built, they have free play areas for kids, street food vans and live music and the place is heaving now even during the week, they need to bring the footfall now via other means, as shops themselves are not enough to attract customers any moreYeah that sounds as if it's worked out well for that town then but not all councils are interested in revamping or taking the time to stop the centres from becoming abandoned, ours certainly isnt.
Kazanne
10-08-2019, 08:30 AM
Yes our high street has been dying for years but they do try to keep it going,we have a new industrial estate going up just on the outskirts so that hasn't helped,this was way before Brexit, so don't think you can fully blame that,a lot of it is online shopping etc, we don't have that many closed shops,but some just don't seem to stay long.
Kizzy
10-08-2019, 08:43 AM
Funding is a big issue, many councils were cut to the bone while others were given an increase, that will of course make a difference as to where and how funds get allocated.
Funding is a big issue, many councils were cut to the bone while others were given an increase, that will of course make a difference as to where and how funds get allocated.Yep true.
There are some though that just couldn't care less about town centres, communities etc.
The public toilet near one of our town centres had been used by a homeless person that left it in a mess, it should been cleaned and reopened, the council though decided to demolish it instead? Now there isnt any public toilets at all.
...a lot of our town empty retail premises are now being converted into flats...but with many the progression of those is an on/off thing as well...often halted for long periods of time...I don’t know if that’s a funding issue or another reason...?..but the pull of living in a town centre must surely be less with less facilities there...
Probably because atm our tax payments go to the eu and other countries...like Greece, Spain Italy and german...no more thank God. ..let them get on wit it themselves.
China and America drive all growth throughout the world and as China and America are in the middle of a trade war ... guess who suffers
The situation isn't helped by brexit uncertainty, but political uncertainty is even worse and our politicians have been dire
Toy Soldier
10-08-2019, 08:59 AM
Yep true.
There are some though that just couldn't care less about town centres, communities etc.
The public toilet near one of our town centres had been used by a homeless person that left it in a mess, it should been cleaned and reopened, the council though decided to demolish it instead? Now there isnt any public toilets at all.This is because the councils attitude is, basically, "plenty of shops and all of the supermarkets have toilets so people can just use those". Because then the businesses are responsible for cleaning and maintenance and they can completely cut that from their budget. But then you get things like the Subway in my nearest town centre who have been telling people that the toilet is "out of order" for something like 7 years.
Nicky91
10-08-2019, 09:01 AM
Probably because atm our tax payments go to the eu and other countries...like Greece, Spain Italy and german...no more thank God. ..let them get on wit it themselves.
no since when you guys were in EU, you'd still have trade deals with europe
i'd say you guys will struggle more now, no good access to medicine anymore since EMA no longer having a office in UK
also certain foods no longer being available in stores in UK, no more flowers import from my country
This is because the councils attitude is, basically, "plenty of shops and all of the supermarkets have toilets so people can just use those". Because then the businesses are responsible for cleaning and maintenance and they can completely cut that from their budget. But then you get things like the Subway in my nearest town centre who have been telling people that the toilet is "out of order" for something like 7 years.
That definitely sums up the attitude of our council.
I'm actually laughing because the toilet in our subway has been out of order for years too [emoji23]
Toy Soldier
10-08-2019, 09:14 AM
That definitely sums up the attitude of our council.
I'm actually laughing because the toilet in our subway has been out of order for years too [emoji23]It'll probably be company policy! Legally I think anywhere that offers "sitting in" eating is meant to have toilet facilities but they probably tell them that if they have a problem with lots of non-customers using them, to just keep them locked and say they're broken.
I mean on one hand, I get it, as the toilets at my old workplace were left in an unspeakable state a few times over the years I was there. Like needles in the toilet cistern, soiled underwear left balled up in the corner... Once, a sink was full of **** with hand prints smeared up the walls. It was so bad we had to call in an industrial cleaning team [emoji38]
isn't the problem with public toilets more to do with the need for them to be supervised constantly to stop them being used by junkies/prostitutes and the like. It's not just about having an open, clean toilet
Vicky.
10-08-2019, 09:34 AM
It'll probably be company policy! Legally I think anywhere that offers "sitting in" eating is meant to have toilet facilities but they probably tell them that if they have a problem with lots of non-customers using them, to just keep them locked and say they're broken.
Apparently its places where food is sold who also seat over 40 people (or 50..cant remember which) according to our local cafe, who seat 70 people but still do not offer loos because 'they were open before that rule came in so its fine' :suspect: Never looked into it but will always remember that really bad proper blazing row between the staff and some old woman who was dying for the loo, who did subsequently wet herself during the argument. They told her there was no loo on the premises at all. Which always sounded dodgy as staff work there so there must be. But people took that as truth until one day James was desperate and was about to take him outside to go round the back (so easy with boys..) and one of the staff said he could use their loo and everyone seemed gobsmacked!
Theres like one loo now, in a bar, on chester front street. Right down the bottom theres Morrisons and Tesco who let people in obviously. The other few down there are bars who can be dodgy (personally, If I use the loo in a bar, I buy a drink, everytime, maybe just a half of coke, but still..a drink) but for a long long way, theres just this one bar which is quite dodgy about people coming in just for the loo obviously given, there were 6 public loos down that stretch until the council ripped them out for no reason and expected the bar to basically..be loo for thousands of people per day instead :rolleyes: Meanwhile, they spent a MILLION on some stupid statue type thing at the bottom of the street, that was ugly and hated, and is now (2 yars later) being ripped down to be replaced..so not sure its budgeting problems as much as them just being uncaring twats.
Places tend to be fine with it if you have young kids. But many many places have been dodgy as **** with me if I ask to use the loo when theres just me, even when obviously pregnant. Mention health issues and they roll eyes (as probably, everyone says that to try and get to go) which is basically why I adopted, buy a half of coke. They cannot refuse you then and its only 2 quid, which I am more thanm happy to pay to make sure I dont piss myself tbh.
Kizzy
10-08-2019, 10:08 AM
Yep true.
There are some though that just couldn't care less about town centres, communities etc.
The public toilet near one of our town centres had been used by a homeless person that left it in a mess, it should been cleaned and reopened, the council though decided to demolish it instead? Now there isnt any public toilets at all.
That's happening across the country they did the same in my town. To keep them serviceable someone would have to be employed to maintain them, a luxury not all towns can afford now. In larger cities you'll have the attended 20p a go loos but if there's not the footfall to make it profitable then there's nothing.
If I need to go while I'm out I sneak in wetherspoons and pretend I'm looking for someone :hehe:
Vicky.
10-08-2019, 10:10 AM
If I need to go while I'm out I sneak in wetherspoons and pretend I'm looking for someone :hehe:
Loads of people do that. In rare times when we go, we play guess the person pretending to be looking about for friends then shooting to the loo and walking/running out with a red face.:D
Kizzy
10-08-2019, 10:27 AM
Loads of people do that. In rare times when we go, we play guess the person pretending to be looking about for friends then shooting to the loo and walking/running out with a red face.:D
Yep thats me lol... unlike you Vicky im too tight to even buy a drink :) and if i did i'd need the loo 10 mins later so no point :laugh: guess it's a sign of the times, if toilets were more of a risk to the public than a service then it kind of makes sense to get rid of them.I can see the logic behind it to be fair.
Kazanne
10-08-2019, 12:08 PM
From what I have seen many councils waste money that they could be using on housing and other maintainance , its not always the governments fault.
Withano
10-08-2019, 12:17 PM
Yeh people shop online now cos brexit x
Kizzy
10-08-2019, 04:29 PM
From what I have seen many councils waste money that they could be using on housing and other maintainance , its not always the governments fault.
Such as, which council has wasted money kaz, seeing as many have had cuts to central govt funding that restricts even basic services I'd like to know where it's being wasted?
Vicky.
10-08-2019, 04:36 PM
Such as, which council has wasted money kaz, seeing as many have had cuts to central govt funding that restricts even basic services I'd like to know where it's being wasted?
Ous wasted vast amounts on the stupid statue thing, was a mini bridge..seemed for no reason whatsoever. I have yet to meet a person who thinks it was even half decent, let alone good or money well spent! Being pulled down 2 years later as they are trying to open the market place up a bit more :rolleyes: Meanwhile, they claim to not have money for maintaining properties right, or doing roadworks or anything. But can pay out a million quid on some stupid fake bridge thats ugly as hell :laugh:
Yeah most councils have been cut to the bone. Unfortunately, some still do waste money on endless crap, rather than trying to focus it on things that are needed.
Cherie
11-08-2019, 08:23 AM
Ous wasted vast amounts on the stupid statue thing, was a mini bridge..seemed for no reason whatsoever. I have yet to meet a person who thinks it was even half decent, let alone good or money well spent! Being pulled down 2 years later as they are trying to open the market place up a bit more :rolleyes: Meanwhile, they claim to not have money for maintaining properties right, or doing roadworks or anything. But can pay out a million quid on some stupid fake bridge thats ugly as hell :laugh:
Yeah most councils have been cut to the bone. Unfortunately, some still do waste money on endless crap, rather than trying to focus it on things that are needed.
the public toilets are a strange one, generally I don't know anyone who liked to use them as there were some morons who abused the facilities and after dark they became no go areas
Our local council invested in a new fleet of buses, all pretty basic apart from the one that ferries the councillers around, which is a top of the range model :skull:
Kizzy
11-08-2019, 08:42 AM
Ous wasted vast amounts on the stupid statue thing, was a mini bridge..seemed for no reason whatsoever. I have yet to meet a person who thinks it was even half decent, let alone good or money well spent! Being pulled down 2 years later as they are trying to open the market place up a bit more :rolleyes: Meanwhile, they claim to not have money for maintaining properties right, or doing roadworks or anything. But can pay out a million quid on some stupid fake bridge thats ugly as hell :laugh:
Yeah most councils have been cut to the bone. Unfortunately, some still do waste money on endless crap, rather than trying to focus it on things that are needed.
That couldve been a grant? Councils get those for culture and arts and such it may have been from the EU... What's it called I'll try find out :)
Kazanne
11-08-2019, 08:50 AM
Such as, which council has wasted money kaz, seeing as many have had cuts to central govt funding that restricts even basic services I'd like to know where it's being wasted?
Well ours have just had their block of offices refurbished , their fleet of vans painted with Wallace and Gromit images , they also send out thousands and thousands of glossy calendars every year most are never opened and put in the recycling, all these cost a lot of money and they are not necessary imo.
The Slim Reaper
11-08-2019, 12:01 PM
the public toilets are a strange one, generally I don't know anyone who liked to use them as there were some morons who abused the facilities and after dark they became no go areas
You should be grateful they've invested in your work space :smug:
Cherie
11-08-2019, 02:10 PM
You should be grateful they've invested in your work space :smug:
in grand Cal style
- SLAP - :smug:
vBulletin® v3.8.11, Copyright ©2000-2025, vBulletin Solutions Inc.