Government: 20,000 CoVid deaths is a good result

[Smithy]

1243939387001503744

Absolutely diabolical, South Korea has a population of 55 million and only has 144 deaths, acting like 20,000 deaths is a good result is disgusting. The government ignored the WHO’s advice and should be held accountable


(I know there’s a corona thread but it’s fast moving and I think this is an important topic)

[arista]

"20,000"

Yes not a good way to talk of this
Covid 19.

Thats a way High amount.

Johnson PM
Dragged his bloody feet

[bots]

i think it's important that experts are realistic in the numbers they present to us.

Just to put it in to perspective. If we had done nothing, the expected death toll would have been 500,000, if we had kept to basic social distancing, the death rate would be 250,000

Other countries may have done better in the short term because they were more rigorous with isolation, but they are all seeing rises again now. They haven't beaten it yet ... nothing like it

[Smithy]

i think it's important that experts are realistic in the numbers they present to us.

Just to put it in to perspective. If we had done nothing, the expected death toll would have been 500,000, if we had kept to basic social distancing, the death rate would be 250,000

Other countries may have done better in the short term because they were more rigorous with isolation, but they are all seeing rises again now. They haven't beaten it yet ... nothing like it

If we had done more the death toll would be much lower, just because it’s not astronomical doesn’t mean 20,000 deaths is good

[Mystic Mock]

1243939387001503744

Absolutely diabolical, South Korea has a population of 55 million and only has 144 deaths, acting like 20,000 deaths is a good result is disgusting. The government ignored the WHO’s advice and should be held accountable


(I know there’s a corona thread but it’s fast moving and I think this is an important topic)

I agree.

Also it's probably best for that guy to apologise and come up with a much lower number and make out that the original statistic was a "mistake" so that people don't panic.

I'd say 5,000 deaths or something around that mark if I was him.

[Kizzy]

i think it's important that experts are realistic in the numbers they present to us.

Just to put it in to perspective. If we had done nothing, the expected death toll would have been 500,000, if we had kept to basic social distancing, the death rate would be 250,000

Other countries may have done better in the short term because they were more rigorous with isolation, but they are all seeing rises again now. They haven't beaten it yet ... nothing like it

So the experts are at fault? Not the initial botched approach from this govt?

[MTVN]

That would be in the ball park of seasonal flu deaths so yes a good outcome. And many of those who will die with Covid would likely have died this year even without the virus. Most of the Western world will experience the same so the chances of us somehow uniquely avoiding a high death count were very slim. I know that Korea has been able to control the outbreak better but they were much better equipped from the beginning because of the Sars outbreak a few years ago. It is better to compare us to other European countries rather than Asian ones

[DouglasS]

It’s harsh to say but that probably is a good outcome. You can not prevent people dieing if people do not follow instructions :shrug:

You also can not compare Asia to Europe in my opinion, the cultures are different and in Asia people typically listen to their governments instruction/are less rebellious, which is why China has succeeded so well.

[Smithy]

It’s harsh to say but that probably is a good outcome. You can not prevent people dieing if people do not follow instructions :shrug:

You CAN prevent people dying if you (as a government) act quicker though

[James]

Why don't they impose lockdowns and testing programmes to reduce the number that die of flu every year?

[Kizzy]

That would be in the ball park of seasonal flu deaths so yes a good outcome. And many of those who will die with Covid would likely have died this year even without the virus. Most of the Western world will experience the same so the chances of us somehow uniquely avoiding a high death count were very slim. I know that Korea has been able to control the outbreak better but they were much better equipped from the beginning because of the Sars outbreak a few years ago. It is better to compare us to other European countries rather than Asian ones

How are we to know that is inclusive of those who die of seasonal flu?

I don't understand how Asian countries should be expected to be better equipped, we had contingency planning for SARS and MERS too.
Every country knew the dangers of a pandemic, it would be better to say that our response knowing the seriousness of the threat was seriously lacking.

[arista]

So the experts are at fault? Not the initial botched approach from this govt?


100% Johnson PM
is at fault
he had Harder warnings
ignored them.

[Kizzy]

Why don't they impose lockdowns and testing programmes to reduce the number that die of flu every year?

You are able to have a flu jab for seasonal flu, there's no vaccine for this.

[The Slim Reaper]

Why don't they impose lockdowns and testing programmes to reduce the number that die of flu every year?

Because there are new flu vaccines every year that provide a layer of protection to the most at risk.

[The Slim Reaper]

100% Johnson PM
is at fault
he had Harder warnings
ignored them.

Not only did he ignore, he was willing to let it run through the population unchecked at one point.

[arista]

Why don't they impose lockdowns and testing programmes to reduce the number that die of flu every year?

Because
thats the luck of draw
if you get Normal Flu
in the whole World


This China Virus Covid 19 Killer
is NOTHING like Flu
is Instant Death to many old folks
Some strong old folks can beat it , of course.


From a SkyNewsHD report
a upset Italian Nurse
said the older ones can not be saved
in Italy.

[Liam-]

The attitude that ‘oh, it’s only the people that are likely to die anyway, so it’s a good result’ is actually abhorrent, what an awful outlook to have about thousands of people dying of something that could have been handled if the people in charge acted much sooner than they did.

[arista]

Not only did he ignore, he was willing to let it run through the population unchecked at one point.


Yes more will Die
because Johnson PM
early on Dragged his Feet

[Kizzy]

100% Johnson PM
is at fault
he had Harder warnings
ignored them.

Yep this has been floating about since January I've read, his pig headed ideas on herd immunity have cost countless lives.

[arista]

The attitude that ‘oh, it’s only the people that are likely to die anyway, so it’s a good result’ is actually abhorrent, what an awful outlook to have about thousands of people dying of something that could have been handled if the people in charge acted much sooner than they did.


Yes Johnson PM said week ago
by now 25,000 tests a day.

Live on SkyNewsHD and Marr BBC1HD
Gove claimed he reached 10,000 a day.

Johnson Failed 100%
on not Locking down the UK
last month

[arista]

Yep this has been floating about since January I've read, his pig headed ideas on herd immunity have cost countless lives.


Yes Johnson PM
Guilty as charged.

[James]

You are able to have a flu jab for seasonal flu, there's no vaccine for this.

Because there are new flu vaccines every year that provide a layer of protection to the most at risk.

But it still kills about 18,000 people a year and that could be reduced with stronger measures.

Also there's years when the flu vaccine is not well matched to the strain that is going about, and it doesn't do much good. More about that here -
https://www.insider.com/how-effective-is-the-flu-shot

[arista]

But it still kills about 18,000 people a year and that could be reduced with stronger measures.

Also there's years when the flu vaccine is not well matched to the strain that is going about, and it doesn't do much good. More about that here -
https://www.insider.com/how-effective-is-the-flu-shot

add Worldwide?
how can you miss saying Worldwide

[Kizzy]

Boris actually said 250,000 tests, it was the expert next to him who said 25,000.. 10,000 will be a generous estimate too.
Nobody I know that rang 111 with symptoms has been offered a test.

[James]

add Worldwide?


Influenza spreads around the world in yearly outbreaks, resulting in about three to five million cases of severe illness and about 290,000 to 650,000 deaths.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza

[arista]

This worse than the Flu
James
Covid 19 jumps into a old person lungs
FAST

[arista]

Boris actually said 250,000 tests, it was the expert next to him who said 25,000.. 10,000 will be a generous estimate too.
Nobody I know that rang 111 with symptoms has been offered a test.

Yes Kizzy they run out of a large amount
so cancelled General Public tests.

[James]

This worse than the Flu
James
Covid 19 jumps into a old person lungs
FAST

Yes, looks like it.

[The Slim Reaper]

But it still kills about 18,000 people a year and that could be reduced with stronger measures.

Also there's years when the flu vaccine is not well matched to the strain that is going about, and it doesn't do much good. More about that here -
https://www.insider.com/how-effective-is-the-flu-shot

I've read a lot of medical experts saying that comparing this to flu is a mistake. We've done all we can to mitigate risks with the flu, and as a society we accept that there are risks in daily life. Same reason no one wants to ban cars or planes.

The early government guesstimate for Covid-19 was that letting it go would cause over 200,000 deaths, and that's the figure that came out, so it's probably closer to 500,000. That's why Boris had to change tact to now put us in lockdown.

[Kizzy]

But it still kills about 18,000 people a year and that could be reduced with stronger measures.

Also there's years when the flu vaccine is not well matched to the strain that is going about, and it doesn't do much good. More about that here -
https://www.insider.com/how-effective-is-the-flu-shot

ThIs is not flu, I can only suggest that the economy can't grind to a halt every year? Flu is as you say seasonal it comes and it goes..this won't go.

[user104658]

ThIs is not flu, I can only suggest that the economy can't grind to a halt every year? Flu is as you say seasonal it comes and it goes..this won't go.This will become seasonal once larger scale immunity is present and then will reduce further when effective vaccination is possible.

The main difference between this and flu is that it's new and thus large numbers can become infected at once, swamping the healthcare system and condensing deaths into a protracted time period.

Lockdown is to stop that from happening and manage the spread, which can hopefully be contained in pockets post-lockdown (this remains to be seen, we'll see what happens in China).

The lockdown is not to eliminate Covid-19, and realistically, people need to stop believing that it's going anywhere or they're just setting themselves up for a fresh shock. It can't currently be treated like flu because its new; and not everyone catches flu all at once. That's the major difference. Over time, while the disease is NOT flu, the management of it will become EXACTLY like flu. There will be seasonal Covid-19 in the years to come and a yearly death figure (probably similar to flu) is something that is just inevitable.

[user104658]

I'd also point out that we also didn't lockdown the country every winter before annual flu vaccination became widespread (annual shots are actually a very new thing in the UK) and death rates did used to be higher. A long-term, spread out death rate from flu is an accepted "norm" and in the decades to come, the same will be true of Covid.

We just need to get past the initial "hump" of zero population immunity without healthcare and the economy imploding.

[Smithy]

100% Johnson PM
is at fault
he had Harder warnings
ignored them.

DRAG HIM Arista :clap1:

[user104658]

I guess if you want a real-world example of something comparable;

During the colonisation of America a lot of Native Americans died of illnesses brought in by colonists who only had the sniffles. They had NO resistance to the viruses being brought in, when in Europe these bugs had been circulating for decades, and that made them far more severe for the "immune-naive" natives.

Flu is seasonal because of mutations that mean you can "catch it again", but you still have some "tools in the immunity toolkit" to fight it. That will happen with Covid and that's how it will become seasonal. It'll mutate season to season but be less severe than it is as a "fresh virus" straight off the bat.


........


.... And yes I do feel like I need to apologise for that pun...

[The Slim Reaper]

I'd also point out that we also didn't lockdown the country every winter before annual flu vaccination became widespread (annual shots are actually a very new thing in the UK) and death rates did used to be higher. A long-term, spread out death rate from flu is an accepted "norm" and in the decades to come, the same will be true of Covid.

We just need to get past the initial "hump" of zero population immunity without healthcare and the economy imploding.

You can't compare what was happening pre 1940's to the modern day though. Completely different worlds, populations, and medical capabilities.

[Kizzy]

This will become seasonal once larger scale immunity is present and then will reduce further when effective vaccination is possible.

The main difference between this and flu is that it's new and thus large numbers can become infected at once, swamping the healthcare system and condensing deaths into a protracted time period.

Lockdown is to stop that from happening and manage the spread, which can hopefully be contained in pockets post-lockdown (this remains to be seen, we'll see what happens in China).

The lockdown is not to eliminate Covid-19, and realistically, people need to stop believing that it's going anywhere or they're just setting themselves up for a fresh shock. It can't currently be treated like flu because its new; and not everyone catches flu all at once. That's the major difference. Over time, while the disease is NOT flu, the management of it will become EXACTLY like flu. There will be seasonal Covid-19 in the years to come and a yearly death figure (probably similar to flu) is something that is just inevitable.

Again if it is not flu why would it be seasonal?

[user104658]

Again if it is not flu why would it be seasonal?Because once widescale population immunity is present (both natural and vaccine) it'll re-emerge as fresh mutations seasonally, but immune systems will have "blueprints" to work off of that will make it spread less easily (a mutated virus strain is not a new virus, some of the previous antibodies can still fight it).

Also this is the 5th human coronavirus, there are 4 other milder coronaviruses in regular circulation and they are largely seasonal.

I think it's also worth noting that we have no real idea how severe those 4 viruses were when they first became active in humans, Covid-19 could theoretically eventually be very similar to them. But that's not really a practical point, more just thinking about what Covid-19 might look like when it's been around for a few hundred years. Very possible that for the people of 2220 it's just another cold.

I might freeze my head like Disney just to pop up in 200 years and say "See, told you!" before I inevitably die (because of being a head in a jar). Really that's how I want to go out.

[Kizzy]

Do you mean bird flu, swine flu, SARS and MERS?
The difference between those are vast, I think this is SARS to be honest.. it's bad enough, if it were MERS Then it would be pretty much game over in the UK before we could even think of finding a vaccine.

[smudgie]

Do you mean bird flu, swine flu, SARS and MERS?
The difference between those are vast, I think this is SARS to be honest.. it's bad enough, if it were MERS Then it would be pretty much game over in the UK before we could even think of finding a vaccine.

Isn’t it called SARS Covid 19

[user104658]

Do you mean bird flu, swine flu, SARS and MERS?
The difference between those are vast, I think this is SARS to be honest.. it's bad enough, if it were MERS Then it would be pretty much game over in the UK before we could even think of finding a vaccine.No, SARS and MERS are severe rare coronaviruses (there are 7 coronaviruses in total), bird flu and swine flu are influenza strains.

There are 4 common, mild, coronavirus strains in permanent circulation. The common cold is usually one of the four coronaviruses.

Common human coronaviruses

229E (alpha coronavirus)

NL63 (alpha coronavirus)

OC43 (beta coronavirus)

HKU1 (beta coronavirus)

Other human coronaviruses

MERS-CoV (the beta coronavirus that causes Middle East Respiratory Syndrome, or MERS)

SARS-CoV (the beta coronavirus that causes severe acute respiratory syndrome, or SARS)

SARS-CoV-2 (the novel coronavirus that causes coronavirus disease 2019, or COVID-19)

People around the world commonly get infected with human coronaviruses 229E, NL63, OC43, and HKU1.

Sometimes coronaviruses that infect animals can evolve and make people sick and become a new human coronavirus. Three recent examples of this are 2019-nCoV, SARS-CoV, and MERS-CoV.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/types.html


There is a consensus that eventually Covid-19 is likely to become a "new 5th" common coronavirus.

[user104658]

Isn’t it called SARS Covid 19The virus that causes Covid-19 (name of the illness, not the name of the virus) is SARS-CoV-2.

They don't use it commonly in reporting because the word "SARS" understandably scares people. But it is a far less severe virus than SARS-1.

[Shaun]

I did think that Boris was too slow to contain it but we're talking about the scope of, say, one week and given the booming figures in Italy and Spain at the time, we could've definitely rushed forward with a total lockdown sooner... but these are unprecedented times and anything done by a PM will have a ton of "how do you know that's the right response?" hypotheses thrown at them. Had he ordered the lockdown mid-February, we may well have been frothing at the mouth and saying things weren't "that bad" yet.

I also have some sympathy with the "might have died anyway" argument... flu seasons are more deadly than we think, and even though the occasional 18 or 21 year old seems to be succumbing to this virus, the vast majority are indeed those who'd struggle with pneumonia or the ilk. It's not exactly pleasant to think, and it certainly shouldn't be upheld disrespectfully as some sort of "people die :rolleyes: get over it :rolleyes:" Darwinist asshole argument, but those figures over an entire Winter of flu seasons (ie. the equivalent of 3-6 months of this virus) might not be much less.

Not to absolve Bojo of guilt, though, since his pals have stripped the NHS to a point where it's desperately trying to keep up and might not. :shrug:

[user104658]

I think a critical factor in the "should we have tightened up earlier" debate has yet to be revealed anyway, and it's one that the government will have considered.

And that is "how long will people fully comply".

Because compliance will drop over time no matter how strict the lockdown is, fatigue will set in and people will start to break quarantine. Some people will, quite simply, become too bored to care. For the time being we like to think everyone is on board and doing great... We've been doing it for less than 2 weeks.

The earlier you implement lockdown, the earlier in the cycle that happens. We want it to be as late as possible.

[arista]

Shaun
Johnson PM
dragged his feet a month ago and weeks ago.
He is responsible for not Locking us down Fully.

The NHS while not be able handle the new amount
and some more Medical Workers can also Die
from Covid 19.

[arista]

DRAG HIM Arista :clap1:

You Are Most Wise
Smithy.

[Crimson Dynamo]

In 2018

In England and Wales


1484 people died every day



so that meant that by 29.3.18 - 130, 592 people had died

[Nicky91]

it's more like very extreme form of pneumonia, and combined with how it spreads almost as rapidly as common flu virus then yes this is a serious virus

pneumonia also kinda destroys the lungs

[Kizzy]

No, SARS and MERS are severe rare coronaviruses (there are 7 coronaviruses in total), bird flu and swine flu are influenza strains.

There are 4 common, mild, coronavirus strains in permanent circulation. The common cold is usually one of the four coronaviruses.



https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/types.html


There is a consensus that eventually Covid-19 is likely to become a "new 5th" common coronavirus.

A coronavirus is anything that jumps from animals to humans isn't it like bird and swine?

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/novel-coronavirus-china/questions-answers

[Zizu]

it's more like very extreme form of pneumonia, and combined with how it spreads almost as rapidly as common flu virus then yes this is a serious virus

pneumonia also kinda destroys the lungs



Uk intensive care wards are reporting 50% death rates ONCE you get to that stage ..

The wards have loads of 20-40 years olds in intensive care wards .. most had NO underlying conditions.

This is seriously scary




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

[The Slim Reaper]

Names of the first 3 doctors in the UK to die from protecting us:

Amged el-Hawrani
Adel el-Tayar
Habib Zaidi

Remember this next time immigration is being used to sow hatred.

[Kizzy]

This is from 2003
https://www.info.gov.hk/info/sars/en/faq.htm

[Kizzy]

Names of the first 3 doctors in the UK to die from protecting us:

Amged el-Hawrani
Adel el-Tayar
Habib Zaidi

Remember this next time immigration is being used to sow hatred.
I was just reading about this so sad and 100% with what you say here, my guess is people will have very short memories.

[Kazanne]

100% Johnson PM
is at fault
he had Harder warnings
ignored them.

I think that's a bit harsh arista,he has been taking advice from health ministers etc,is he supposed to ignore them ? very unfair to solely blame him aswell, he did what he was told and thought best, NONE of these countries know the outcome and neither do we,there is no proof that more people have died than would have, the president of the nursing staff who works in London,said they have everything they need and things are getting through, its all well and good us all sitting back blaming and saying what we should do ,we are as much in the dark as anyone,this thing will take people and no one will be able to stop it,all we can do is try and do as we are asked and support those in charge who have a thankless job to do at the minute,they wont get everything right ,no one would,but they are doing the best they can,cut them some slack and be helpful.Its been explained several times why the lockdown was done when it was and not straight away,that seems like a pretty reasonable thing to me. imo.

[user104658]

A coronavirus is anything that jumps from animals to humans isn't it like bird and swine?

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/novel-coronavirus-china/questions-answers

No a coronavirus is a specific family of viruses (like influenzas) and is named after the shape of the virus under a microscope (has a "crown like" part at the top). Bird and swine flu are both influenza strains, Covid is a coronavirus strain.

[Kizzy]

That's not true.. there have been breakouts of extremely similar coronaviruses within the last 20yrs there are 100s of academic articles and contingency plans on best practice from the WHO and many many other health advisory bodies.
It's a total cop out and a lie to say they didn't know what the outcome could be, so as a member of the public that is at risk the reaction should not be naw, poor boris he didn't know.. it should be what do you mean you didn't know?! Of course you know it's your damn job to know!!

[The Slim Reaper]

I think that's a bit harsh arista,he has been taking advice from health ministers etc,is he supposed to ignore them ? very unfair to solely blame him aswell, he did what he was told and thought best, NONE of these countries know the outcome and neither do we,there is no proof that more people have died than would have, the president of the nursing staff who works in London,said they have everything they need and things are getting through, its all well and good us all sitting back blaming and saying what we should do ,we are as much in the dark as anyone,this thing will take people and no one will be able to stop it,all we can do is try and do as we are asked and support those in charge who have a thankless job to do at the minute,they wont get everything right ,no one would,but they are doing the best they can,cut them some slack and be helpful.Its been explained several times why the lockdown was done when it was and not straight away,that seems like a pretty reasonable thing to me. imo.


Just to give you some further info on this line about how he's taking advice. When experts, ministers, or anyone else is providing advice, they don't say that he should do one thing or another, they only provide options with pros and cons. It is then the choice of the leader to pick the option he thinks is best.

[user104658]

it's more like very extreme form of pneumonia, and combined with how it spreads almost as rapidly as common flu virus then yes this is a serious virus


It is NOT like having a very extreme form of pneumonia at all in over 90% of cases. In a further 5% (of confirmed cases) it progresses to pneumonia-like symptoms needing an oxygen mask. In the worst 5% it requires a full ventilator (and that 5% is like severe pneumonia).

Please stop peddling the myth that everyone who gets Covid gets severe respiratory symptoms anything like pneumonia. It isn't true OR helpful.

[user104658]

That's not true.. there have been breakouts of extremely similar coronaviruses within the last 20yrs there are 100s of academic articles and contingency plans on best practice from the WHO and many many other health advisory bodies.
It's a total cop out and a lie to say they didn't know what the outcome could be, so as a member of the public that is at risk the reaction should not be naw, poor boris he didn't know.. it should be what do you mean you didn't know?! Of course you know it's your damn job to know!!Yup, pretty much every virologist has been warning that it was "when, not if" there would be a global pandemic sine SARS-1 and that was in 2003. And plenty were talking about it before that. No one was interested.

You can Google academic papers from 2005-or-so that were warning that this was coming.

Hopefully they've learned the lesson now because there will definitely be new outbreaks in future. And believe it or not this one isn't even comparatively all that bad. If SARS-1 had gone pandemic it would make this look like a walk in the park.

[Kazanne]

Just to give you some further info on this line about how he's taking advice. When experts, ministers, or anyone else is providing advice, they don't say that he should do one thing or another, they only provide options with pros and cons. It is then the choice of the leader to pick the option he thinks is best.

Well Slim,I think he IS doing his best, this is an unknown virus and as yet NONE of us know what the outcome will be , it's kind of impossible to get everything right with it, I just think arista is being unfairly harsh as yet, we havent even seen the worst yet,but what do I know,:laugh:and stay safe you :wavey:

[The Slim Reaper]

Well Slim,I think he IS doing his best, this is an unknown virus and as yet NONE of us know what the outcome will be , it's kind of impossible to get everything right with it, I just think arista is being unfairly harsh as yet, we havent even seen the worst yet,but what do I know,:laugh:and stay safe you :wavey:

And you and your family.

[Kizzy]

Just watched this.. the intreviewee suggets that you can become reinfected with this...so what good is the antibody test?

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-compared-to-sars-swine-flu-mers-zika-2020-3%3famp

[Kizzy]

The comparisons in the death rates from Spanish flu are not comparable either the death rate was 0.2% or something ..whereas this it's 3.4% less people infected more deaths.

Oh and Spanish flu came back, it was swine flu in 2009/10 H1N1

[user104658]

Just watched this.. the intreviewee suggets that you can become reinfected with this...so what good is the antibody test?

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-compared-to-sars-swine-flu-mers-zika-2020-3%3fampThat's from March 9TH, nearly 3 weeks ago (and the data on this is very fast moving). All of the latest evidence is that MOST recovered Covid-19 cases have immunity, and even when not full immunity, reinfection is milder. There were some scare stories about "even worse" reinfection in the early days when it had barely spread out of China but they were pretty much just gossip.
The comparisons in the death rates from Spanish flu are not comparable either the death rate was 0.2% or something ..whereas this it's 3.4% less people infected more deaths.

Oh and Spanish flu came back, it was swine flu in 2009/10 H1N1The mortality rate of Spanish Flu was 2.5% globally, I don't know where you got 0.2% from?

For Covid 3.4% of confirmed cases result in death but we know (for a fact) that testing at this point isn't just inadequate, it's ground to an almost total halt. You can't even get through to 111 to ASK. Some NHS front line staff can't get a test for 10 days+, other people with symptoms realistically can't get a test at all. The testing situation is even worse in Italy/France/Spain.

The real number of cases is much, much higher. That's not just a theory at this point, it's just how it is... Not enough tests by a long, long way. Expert opinion still places the true death rate in the 1% range which yes is worse than most normal variants of flu and still a scary number, but it's not unprecedented and lower than both Spanish flu and the smaller epidemic in the 50's.

[Kizzy]

No a coronavirus is a specific family of viruses (like influenzas) and is named after the shape of the virus under a microscope (has a "crown like" part at the top). Bird and swine flu are both influenza strains, Covid is a coronavirus strain.

Ah right sorry if I'd have read on it notes the zoonotic strains of both.

[Kizzy]

That's from March 9TH, nearly 3 weeks ago (and the data on this is very fast moving). All of the latest evidence is that MOST recovered Covid-19 cases have immunity, and even when not full immunity, reinfection is milder. There were some scare stories about "even worse" reinfection in the early days when it had barely spread out of China but they were pretty much just gossip.
The mortality rate of Spanish Flu was 2.5% globally, I don't know where you got 0.2% from?

For Covid 3.4% of confirmed cases result in death but we know (for a fact) that testing at this point isn't just inadequate, it's ground to an almost total halt. You can't even get through to 111 to ASK. Some NHS front line staff can't get a test for 10 days+, other people with symptoms realistically can't get a test at all. The testing situation is even worse in Italy/France/Spain.

The real number of cases is much, much higher. That's not just a theory at this point, it's just how it is... Not enough tests by a long, long way. Expert opinion still places the true death rate in the 1% range which yes is worse than most normal variants of flu and still a scary number, but it's not unprecedented and lower than both Spanish flu and the smaller epidemic in the 50's.

Thank goodness I really hope there is no reinfection I didn't think that could happen with any virus once you had it and fought it off you were immune? ..

I've read that figure a lot today as the exposure was so high, millions getting it even though the deaths were high the death rate based on those infected was low? Mind you that could have been from the 2009/ 10 H1N1 flu?

Yep testing is pants. . Practically none existant, thing they're hoping most will peg it at home without any fuss. The death rate is still rising so who knows? I hope 1% is right over 3.4% :/

[The Slim Reaper]

What a ****

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EUTPlPDWsAIhJu3?format=jpg&name=large

[The Slim Reaper]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EUTTmSNWkAA-hNF?format=jpg&name=900x900

[MTVN]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EUTTmSNWkAA-hNF?format=jpg&name=900x900

That's actually the same as us unfortunately

The death figure is 'of those hospitalised'

[The Slim Reaper]

That's actually the same as us unfortunately

The death figure is 'of those hospitalised'

Yeah, going to take a while before we get to grips with the actual numbers involved.

[Twosugars]

What a ****

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EUTPlPDWsAIhJu3?format=jpg&name=large

They should have him in dictionaries as an example of the figurative use of the word c u n t

[bots]

Yeah, going to take a while before we get to grips with the actual numbers involved.

we can't even test all the living that we need to, it's going to be a long time till the dead are tested

[user104658]

That's actually the same as us unfortunately



The death figure is 'of those hospitalised'Thus far, the number of deaths in the UK outwith hospitals should be extremely low, we haven't hit that level of crisis (yet) and most will have been transferred to hospital when moderately/severely ill but before death.

[Kizzy]

we can't even test all the living that we need to, it's going to be a long time till the dead are tested

They won't test the dead.

[Kizzy]

I just don't get these stats for the UK..
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Why Is the recovery figure so low and why are they saying only 163 people are critical if over 200 are dying a day?

[Beso]

Is it a comfortable death?

[user104658]

I just don't get these stats for the UK..
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Why Is the recovery figure so low and why are they saying only 163 people are critical if over 200 are dying a day?Looks like (extremely, almost nonexistent) reporting of recoveries.

[thesheriff443]

Just to put deaths in some kind of perspective 9.6 million people died of cancer world wide in 2018 .

[user104658]

Is it a comfortable death?Depends on if you get hospital treatment. If you die on ventilator you most likely won't even know anything about it. If you can't access treatment/sedation I imagine it's not the most pleasant (breathing difficulties) but that said, respiratory and cardiovascular failure is one of the most common causes of "old age" death and always has been, so not really any different a death than a lot of people get.

I suppose the harsh truth is, unless you're under sedation there aren't many comfortable deaths. The image we like to have of old people slipping away in their sleep is sadly not that common. Both of my parents worked in elderly care (my mum was a ward sister in a private care home, my dad was a specialist dementia nurse) and weren't shy about telling me that most people aren't that lucky. When my own mum died she was filled to the eyeballs with morphine and sedation, which I'm quite thankful for.

So I guess the answer is, if you're sedated on ventilator it's a better death than most.

Sorry for the grim post :umm2:.

[Kizzy]

Just to put deaths in some kind of perspective 9.6 million people died of cancer world wide in 2018 .

It doesn't put anything in perspective. .but just so you have some perspective we knew cancer existed, untill 6 weeks ago we didn't know this existed.

[thesheriff443]

World health Organisation estimates 137,000 people die world wide from snake bites each year but the figures could be higher.

[thesheriff443]

It doesn't put anything in perspective. .but just so you have some perspective we knew cancer existed, untill 6 weeks ago we didn't know this existed.

You didn’t know the thousands being killed by flu each year.

It’s just something else to kill humans.

[The Slim Reaper]

Good job I'm isolating from cancer then. :fc:

[user104658]

Good job I'm isolating from cancer then. :fc:By staying away from passive smoke [emoji709]

[thesheriff443]

Good job I'm isolating from cancer then. :fc:

It won’t help you, we are all born with cancer cells And if they mutat then you get cancer.

[Zizu]

This Welsh guy ( working in China at the time ) had Cov19 back last NOVEMBER !
First symptoms started November ..


https://news.sky.com/story/amp/fighting-coronavirus-one-of-the-first-british-sufferers-describes-his-ordeal-11950631

[user104658]

It won’t help you, we are all born with cancer cells And if they mutat then you get cancer.Someone needs to cobble together Tibb's guide to health and the human body. A rollicking parody of made up nonsense.

Cancer is a mutation of normal cells. Obviously, everyone is born with normal cells. The risk of mutation increases with age, and from exposure to radiation or carcinogens,but can also happen more or less at random. There's a genetic element to the risk of SOME cancers.

You are not born with specific cancer cells waiting to pop.

Interestingly though, cancer stats in humans are "artificially" higher than in most other species, because humans have a natural lifespan of 40-60 years. For 99% of human evolution you had absolutely no chance of reaching 60+, when most cancers occur. Cells start mutating at an increasing pace the further you get past 60 because in the natural world you'd be long dead... :umm2:.

[Zizu]

This Welsh guy ( working in China at the time ) had Cov19 back last NOVEMBER !
First symptoms started November ..


https://news.sky.com/story/amp/fighting-coronavirus-one-of-the-first-british-sufferers-describes-his-ordeal-11950631


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

[Kizzy]

You didn’t know the thousands being killed by flu each year.

It’s just something else to kill humans.

Of course I was aware that flu kills.. lots of things kill but this is a new thing, you can't expect people and governments not to act and react?
It's a nightmare scenario like an invisible monster just snatching your nana out of her chair! We have to do all we can to trap it and contain it.

[The Slim Reaper]

It won’t help you, we are all born with cancer cells And if they mutat then you get cancer.

That's not true though. No one is born with "cancer cells" unless you are unlucky enough to be born with cancer (not even sure if that's possible but I assume it is). Cells turn cancerous, they are not cancer cells.

[user104658]

This Welsh guy ( working in China at the time ) had Cov19 back last NOVEMBER !
First symptoms started November ..


https://news.sky.com/story/amp/fighting-coronavirus-one-of-the-first-british-sufferers-describes-his-ordeal-11950631It's possible, but totally unverified. They can't possibly know he had it because there was no test for it; it's possible that he did have flu followed by post-viral pneumonia. They've decided he might have had it based on the symptoms he had, not from a verified test.

However there is a semi-conspiracy that it existed in China months before the supposed initial outbreak. But its entirely anecdotal, there's no hard evidence of it.

[arista]

They should have him in dictionaries as an example of the figurative use of the word c u n t


No Trump is the Legit President
even today


Can they have a Election in November?

[Zizu]

Teenagers are dying now ... all with no underlying health issues !!

Even more worrying is that I’ve just heard a top medical bod speaking on LBC radio saying that it’s crucial that we all understand that even when you’ve HAD it ( and survived ) then there is not one thread of evidence to guarantee that you are safe from getting it AGAIN !!
You MAY be immune , you may get another mild dose or you may GET really , really poorly (and even die !)

... we just don’t know for sure yet !!



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

[arista]

"Teenagers are dying now ... all with no underlying health issues !!"

Of course a very young 13 year old
mat not be strong enough , yet.

It's not a shock to me

[Beso]

Depends on if you get hospital treatment. If you die on ventilator you most likely won't even know anything about it. If you can't access treatment/sedation I imagine it's not the most pleasant (breathing difficulties) but that said, respiratory and cardiovascular failure is one of the most common causes of "old age" death and always has been, so not really any different a death than a lot of people get.

I suppose the harsh truth is, unless you're under sedation there aren't many comfortable deaths. The image we like to have of old people slipping away in their sleep is sadly not that common. Both of my parents worked in elderly care (my mum was a ward sister in a private care home, my dad was a specialist dementia nurse) and weren't shy about telling me that most people aren't that lucky. When my own mum died she was filled to the eyeballs with morphine and sedation, which I'm quite thankful for.

So I guess the answer is, if you're sedated on ventilator it's a better death than most.

Sorry for the grim post :umm2:.



Thanks, that's a weight off my mind.

[arista]

A new report on SkyNewsHD
Adam Boulton 9:10AM
From Italy.

The Hospital Staff have Gas masks on
So eyes are protected.
The Young and Old being saved, some though do die
Gun Armed Security on all connecting wards.

Now Finally
Italy has not lost any staff
in that Clever Hospital.



Over 12,000 Deaths in Italy.

[arista]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EUcUBu6XgAcHo93?format=jpg&name=small

2 days ago

[user104658]

Teenagers are dying now ... all with no underlying health issues !!

Even more worrying is that I’ve just heard a top medical bod speaking on LBC radio saying that it’s crucial that we all understand that even when you’ve HAD it ( and survived ) then there is not one thread of evidence to guarantee that you are safe from getting it AGAIN !!
You MAY be immune , you may get another mild dose or you may GET really , really poorly (and even die !)

... we just don’t know for sure yet !!



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

So LBC a few days ago apparently reported that you can't get cold flu in summer so if you're ill in April it must be Covid (a flat out lie), and is row reporting that there's no evidence of immunity in recovered patients (also totally false)? I think they're fudging their reporting to keep people from breaking lockdown, if I'm being totally honest.

There's no such thing as 100% immunity from any disease. It's exceptionally rare to catch chicken pox twice - but not impossible. It's rare to get measles after being infected or vaccinated - but not impossible (in fact 3 in every 100 are not immune after vaccination). That's the same with this but "some people get it twice" isn't "not a thread of evidence that you get immunity". There are over 100,000 recovered now and absolutely tonnes of evidence - both anecdotal and medical - that recovered patients have a level of immunity. There's a possibility if it becomes "seasonal" that you could get it again the next time it emerges, but that has nothing to do with the current outbreak.

I've never listened to LBC but I've now heard multiple examples of them reporting some really dubious stuff that doesn't reflect the actual, reputable and extremely reliable work being done by universities and researchers. Not sure what's going on there.

In terms of teenage deaths, this isn't a new revelation, we've known since mid February from data in China that the only "seems almost totally safe" age bracket is 0-9. The risk of death at 10-19 is VERY, VERY SMALL but it isn't zero so as the total number of deaths increases, sadly, yes we are going to see a very small number of people in that age category dying. It doesn't mean something has changed and we're suddenly going to see huge numbers. It just means that the risk isn't zero - which we already knew.

Also be wary if reporting "died of Covid with no underlying health conditions". Autopsies have not been done so we have no idea of the cause of death, OR if there was an underlying health condition. Twice in the last week we've had front-page reports of young people dying and it's later emerged that they didn't even die of Covid. And on several occasions its been discovered that people with no recorded health problems did in fact have a health condition.

It MAY be that this tragic example is exactly as reported, because as I said, although the risk is very, very low it isn't zero, so as more people become infected these very rare examples will start to emerge. There are, in theory, potentially hundreds of thousands of cases in the UK at this point (and some suggest more).

[arista]

" LBC a few days ago apparently reported"


No thats just some caller
NOT LBC

[user104658]

" LBC a few days ago apparently reported"


No thats just some caller
NOT LBCLT told me it was a doctor who was "adamant about the science" of not being able to get a cold in summer. It certainly makes more sense if it was just a caller pretending to be a doctor because it's an utterly ludicrous claim.

[arista]

If a NHS caller speaks Live to the Press
they are told they will be Fired.

Home births are being cancelled
but some women are Terrified to go to Hospital.

[Zizu]

Some good news maybe

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-8169043/School-jab-protect-corona-scrapped.html

[arista]

Some good news maybe

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-8169043/School-jab-protect-corona-scrapped.html


Yes James posted all that on Shauns
(wrong death total title) thread

[Smithy]

Welp

[Zizu]

This is why I’m so wary about everything we’re told by politicians...

It’s not a Tory flaw it’s sadly something they’re all guilty of


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

[Gstar]

“20,000 deaths is a good result”

This thread didn’t age well :skull:

[Tom4784]

This is why I’m so wary about everything we’re told by politicians...

It’s not a Tory flaw it’s sadly something they’re all guilty of


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

You can't 'both sides' this when the Tories have been in control for the past decade. Any failings by the government are tory failings. I've had it officially with 'both sides' bull****.

[The Slim Reaper]

Some horrific downplaying early in this thread. Weird reading it back after the time passed and what has happened in between.

[Zizu]

Has anyone heard how many cases of the SA variant we have in the uk ?

We were initially told there were just TWO unconnected cases but I’ve heard nothing since ..


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

[Smithy]

Some horrific downplaying early in this thread. Weird reading it back after the time passed and what has happened in between.

Yep and none of them seem to have returned to comment on the thread now which is interesting :think:

[Beso]

I was just reading about this so sad and 100% with what you say here, my guess is people will have very short memories.

What were there names?

[Crimson Dynamo]

using death?

wow

[user104658]

Some horrific downplaying early in this thread. Weird reading it back after the time passed and what has happened in between.I just skimmed through the first 50 posts and still stand by basically every single thing I said, and still think I'll be proven right about seasonal Covid of lesser severity.

I mean the only other possibilities are that Covid is the big one, the humanity ender. (it isn't) OR that it will be eliminated entirely with vaccination (and I'm sorry guys but... It simply won't).

[bots]

the government wasn't wrong, 20,000 would have been a good result

[joeysteele]

The death total has become obscene and a scandal.
From in part the reckless and dangerous decisions and procrastination of the government, when it's deliberately chosen to disregard health and science advice.

Also on its preparing, or more like it not preparing for how to deal with this pandemic.

However it was the health and science who originally stated 20,000 would be a good result.
Not the government, they just went with that view from them.

Although how anyone, government, health or science so called expert or layperson.
Could ever term in any context, 20,000 deaths and the grief and devastation that brings to at least hundreds of thousands of families and friends of those lost loved ones, as a good result is disgraceful.

[James]

I don't really comment on Covid anymore on here because I realised I don't know what I'm talking about when it comes to viruses - none of us really do.

[Cherie]

I don't really comment on Covid anymore on here because I realised I don't know what I'm talking about when it comes to viruses - none of us really do.

True, unless we are virologists who have actually studied the science, what we need to do is social distance, wear masks, limit social interactions and wash our hands but instead we have a whole new cohort of people who suddenly know what to do better than scientists

[user104658]

You shouldn't disagree with scientific concensus but I fundamentally disagree that you should just shrug your shoulders and yield to others instead of educating yourself on a topic... What a grim reality :umm2:.

[Josy]

I don't really comment on Covid anymore on here because I realised I don't know what I'm talking about when it comes to viruses - none of us really do.Theres plenty of armchair experts that's for sure (online in general)

[Niamh.]

I don't really comment on Covid anymore on here because I realised I don't know what I'm talking about when it comes to viruses - none of us really do.

Same tbh

[user104658]

Why do you even have a serious debates section if you so strongly believe that we should all know our place, tip our caps and accept status quo without examination? :think: odd.

I agree that DECISIONS should be left to people with expertise, but discussion is just that - discussion.

[Crimson Dynamo]

Decisions should be left to those who have been elected to make them, experts inform those people with all the best facts available.

[Josy]

Why do you even have a serious debates section if you so strongly believe that we should all know our place, tip our caps and accept status quo without examination? :think: odd.

I agree that DECISIONS should be left to people with expertise, but discussion is just that - discussion.How did you end up at that conclusion from the few previous posts? [emoji23]

Just because someone has a personal opinion on a single subject doesnt mean they think everyone should have that projected on to them about every topic possible, no one mentioned having a problem with serious debates/discussion :/

[user104658]

I don't really comment on Covid anymore on here because I realised I don't know what I'm talking about when it comes to viruses - none of us really do.



How did you end up at that conclusion from the few previous posts? [emoji23]

Just because someone has a personal opinion on a single subject doesnt mean they think everyone should have that projected on to them about every topic possible, no one mentioned having a problem with serious debates/discussion :/

Because if the above opinion applies to "viruses" then it should equally apply to all topics, unless you're taking the completely illogical stance that it's fine to debate some topics you don't have expert knowledge of, but not others.

In terms of it being a personal stance - which I could have accepted - "because I don't really know what I'm talking about" is a personal reflection, but it ceases to be one and becomes a broad statement with clear implications when "none of us do" is added to the end.

"There's plenty of armchair experts" is also not a personal reflection :idc:.

[bots]

Because if the above opinion applies to "viruses" then it should equally apply to all topics, unless you're taking the completely illogical stance that it's fine to debate some topics you don't have expert knowledge of, but not others.

In terms of it being a personal stance - which I could have accepted - "because I don't really know what I'm talking about" is a personal reflection, but it ceases to be one and becomes a broad statement with clear implications when "none of us do" is added to the end.

"There's plenty of armchair experts" is also not a personal reflection :idc:.

someone got out of bed the wrong side this morning :laugh:

[James]

I'm not saying anyone else shouldn't comment on it. By all means knock yourself out.

Just me. I've decided just to hunker down and wait for it all to be over.

[user104658]

I'm not saying anyone else shouldn't comment on it. By all means knock yourself out.

Just me. I've decided just to hunker down and wait for it all to be over.Then why not keep the comments self-reflective and your thoughts about the rest of the class to yourself :hee:

[James]

Then why not keep the comments self-reflective and your thoughts about the rest of the class to yourself :hee:

Fair enough.

[Josy]

Because if the above opinion applies to "viruses" then it should equally apply to all topics, unless you're taking the completely illogical stance that it's fine to debate some topics you don't have expert knowledge of, but not others.

In terms of it being a personal stance - which I could have accepted - "because I don't really know what I'm talking about" is a personal reflection, but it ceases to be one and becomes a broad statement with clear implications when "none of us do" is added to the end.

"There's plenty of armchair experts" is also not a personal reflection :idc:.

My comment about armchair experts was actually my personal opinion, I also deliberately added in 'online in general' so it wouldnt be taken as a snipe at anyone on here....if you read any news article comments on social media you will understand.

No one on here is a qualified virologist as far as I'm aware either so James was pretty spot on with his comment imo.

Still none of that though would suggest that no one should have discussions or serious debates about any or all topics.

[arista]

I'm not saying anyone else shouldn't comment on it. By all means knock yourself out.

Just me. I've decided just to hunker down and wait for it all to be over.



I am glad you think it will be over.

[Cherie]

You shouldn't disagree with scientific concensus but I fundamentally disagree that you should just shrug your shoulders and yield to others instead of educating yourself on a topic... What a grim reality :umm2:.

That is not what is implied at all, educate yourself away, not every one has to take an intense interest and follow it avidly, I think after almost a year of it a lot of people have had enough of talking about it :shrug:

[bots]

That is not what is implied at all, educate yourself away, not every one has to take an intense interest and follow it avidly, I think after almost a year of it a lot of people have had enough of talking about it :shrug:

i don't watch the news on it. Maybe twice in the last 6 months. I don't find it healthy for me to fixate on it constantly. All we are really doing is looking at statistics, they mean nothing until personally affected as is always the case.

[LukeB]

True, unless we are virologists who have actually studied the science, what we need to do is social distance, wear masks, limit social interactions and wash our hands but instead we have a whole new cohort of people who suddenly know what to do better than scientists

I don't think people think they know better but really what should happen should have been simple on everyone's behalf (the public and the government) acting quick and following the rules but yeah gov have been slow and some are breaking the rules.