Sweden's differing, more relaxed response to coronavirus

[James]

Lockdown, what lockdown? Sweden's unusual response to coronavirus
By Maddy Savage

Stockholm
3 hours ago

https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/7459/production/_111458792_terrace.jpg

While swathes of Europe's population endure lockdown conditions in the face of the coronavirus outbreak, one country stands almost alone in allowing life to go on much closer to normal.

After a long winter, it's just become warm enough to sit outside in the Swedish capital and people are making the most of it.

Families are tucking into ice creams beneath a giant statue of the Viking God Thor in Mariatorget square. Young people are enjoying happy-hour bubbles from pavement seating further down the street.

Elsewhere in the city, nightclubs have been open this week, but gatherings for more than 50 people will be banned from Sunday.

Compare that to neighbouring Denmark, which has restricted meetings to 10 people, or the UK where you're no longer supposed to meet anyone outside your household.

'Each person has a heavy responsibility'

On the roads in Sweden, things are noticeably quieter than usual. Stockholm's public transport company SL says it saw passenger numbers fall by 50% on subway and commuter trains last week.

Polls also suggest almost half of Stockholmers are remote working.

Stockholm Business Region, a state-funded company that supports the city's global business community, estimates that rises to at least 90% in the capital's largest firms, thanks to a tech-savvy workforce and a business culture that has long promoted flexible and remote working practices.

"Every company that has the possibility to do this, they are doing it, and it works," says its CEO Staffan Ingvarsson.

His words cut to the heart of the government's strategy here: self-responsibility. Public health authorities and politicians are still hoping to slow down the spread of the virus without the need for draconian measures.

There are more guidelines than strict rules, with a focus on staying home if you're sick or elderly, washing your hands, and avoiding any non-essential travel, as well as working from home.

Sweden has so far reported nearly 3,500 cases of the virus and 105 deaths.


"We who are adults need to be exactly that: adults. Not spread panic or rumours," Prime Minister Stefan Löfven said in a televised address to the nation last weekend.

"No one is alone in this crisis, but each person has a heavy responsibility."

High level of trust

A majority of Swedes watched and approved of his speech, according to a nationwide survey for Novus, a major polling company.

Meanwhile, there is a high level of trust in public authorities in Sweden, which many believe is driving locals to adhere to voluntary guidelines.

Demography may also be a relevant factor in the country's approach. In contrast to the multi-generational homes in Mediterranean countries, more than half of Swedish households are made up of one person, which cuts the risk of the virus spreading within families.


Meanwhile, Swedes love the outdoors and officials have said that keeping people physically and mentally healthy is another reason they're keen to avoid rules that would keep people cooped up at home.

"We have to combine looking at minimising the health effects of the virus outbreak and the economic impacts of this health crisis," says Andreas Hatzigeorgiou, CEO at the Stockholm Chamber of Commerce.

"The business community here really thinks that the Swedish government and the Swedish approach is more sensible than in many other countries."

'History will be the judge'

But as Swedes watch the rest of Europe grind to a halt, others are starting to question their country's unique approach.

"I think people are prone to listen to the recommendations, but in this kind of critical situation, I am not sure that it's enough," says Dr Emma Frans, an epidemiologist based at Swedish medical university The Karolinska Institute.

She's calling for "clearer instructions" for people on how they should interact in public places such as shops and gyms.


And while business is ticking over for some, others are struggling. Around the corner from Mariatorget's busy bars, popular hipster barber shop Honest Al's has seen customer numbers plummet, despite efforts to improve safety by staggering staffing and appointments.

"My wife is also having her own company, so we pretty much depend on ourselves. Business is bad. I still have bills to pay. We're gonna have to call the banks," says owner Al Mocika.

He's putting his money on Sweden switching tactics and imposing a lockdown, something officials haven't ruled out doing in the future.

Dr Emma Frans says history will be the judge of which politicians and scientists around Europe have made the best calls so far.

"Nobody really knows what measurements will be the most effective," she says. "I'm quite glad that I'm not the one making these decisions".


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52076293


Sweden under fire for ‘relaxed’ coronavirus approach – here’s the science behind it

March 27, 2020 1.40pm GMT

Authors
Paul Franks
Professor of Genetic Epidemiology, Lund University
Peter M Nilsson
Professor of Internal Medicine - Epidemiology, Lund University


A growing number of Swedish doctors and scientists are raising alarm over the Swedish government’s approach to COVID-19. Unlike its Nordic neighbours, Sweden has adopted a relatively relaxed strategy, seemingly assuming that overreaction is more harmful than under-reaction.

Although the government has now banned gatherings of more than 50 people, this excludes places like schools, restaurants and gyms which remain open. That’s despite the fact that 3,046 people have tested positive. Although Norway has the most confirmed cases (3,066) in Scandinavia, COVID-19 fatalities in Sweden are highest by far (92), compared with Norway (15) and Denmark (41).

People now are taking sides, with some arguing that publicly criticising the authorities only serves to undermine public trust at a time when this is so badly needed. Others are convinced that Sweden is hurtling toward a disaster of biblical proportions and that the direction of travel must change. The truth is that of all these opinions, none is derived from direct experience of a global pandemic. No one knows for sure what lies ahead.

In epidemics, prediction models help guide the choice of interventions, assess likely social and economic impacts, and estimate hospital surge capacity requirements. All prediction models require input data, ideally derived from past experience in comparable scenarios. And we know the quality of such input data is poor.

Most current COVID-19 prediction models use data gathered from the COVID-19 epidemics in China and Italy and from past outbreaks of other infectious diseases such as Ebola, influenza and other coronaviruses (Sars and Mers). But demographics and patterns of social interactions differ from country to country. Sweden has a small population and only one real metropolitan area. Ideally, we’d need data from Sweden on the community spread of COVID-19, but this requires screening programmes that do not currently exist.

The little reliable data on COVID-19 in Sweden concerns hospital admissions and fatalities. This latter can be used to get a “poor man’s estimate” of community transmission, providing approximately how many fatalities occur among those infected. But with a two-week lag between diagnosis and death, this a very blunt instrument with which to guide decision making.

In Sweden, the public health authorities have released simulations to guide “surge requirements”. This is the extent to which hospitals will need to boost their capacity to deal with the high number of very ill COVID-19 patients that are likely to need specialist care in the coming weeks. From these simulations, it is clear that the Swedish government anticipates far fewer hospitalisations per 100,000 of the population than predicted in other countries, including Norway, Denmark and the UK.

The corresponding number of deaths in Sweden predicted using the UK simulations are much higher than the Swedish government’s simulations suggest. The reason appears to be that Swedish authorities believe there are many infected people without symptoms and that, of those who come to clinical attention, only one in five will require hospitalisation. At this point, it is hard to know how many people are asymptomatic as there is no structured screening in Sweden and no antibody test to check who has actually had COVID-19 and recovered from it. But substantially underestimating hospital surge requirements would nevertheless be devastating.

Uneven spread
Like in many other countries, the spread of COVID-19 is quite uneven in Sweden. Most cases have been diagnosed and treated in the greater Stockholm area, and lately also in the northern county of Jämtland – a popular destination for skiers. On the other hand, some other geographical areas are relatively spared, at least for the moment. In the third largest Swedish city, Malmö, still only a few cases have been hospitalised at the time of writing.


Coronavirus will get worse in Sweden. Lightspring/Shutterstock
There is no doubt that the epidemic will spread, but the speed of this is disputed. The national Public Health authorities are also sceptical about the need for lock-down in most of the country, but discussions are now ongoing to enforce such an intervention in the capital area.

There are several arguments supporting the current official Swedish strategy. These include the need to keep schools open in order to allow parents who work in key jobs in health care, transportation and food supply lines to remain at work. Despite other infectious diseases spreading rapidly among children, COVID-19 complications are relatively rare in children. A long-term lockdown is also likely to have major economic implications that in the future may harm healthcare due to lack of resources. This may eventually cause even more deaths and suffering than the COVID-19 pandemic will bring in the near term.

Herd immunity
The best estimates of the COVID-19 case-fatality ratio (CFR) – the proportion of those infected who die – is currently 0.5-1.0%. By comparison, the 1918-1919 Spanish flu had a 3% CFR in some parts of northern Sweden. A century ago, Sweden was recovering from the first world war, even though the country stayed neutral.

Internal transportation and communication systems were less developed than in many other countries at the time, which helped slow the spread of the epidemic. In the short term, this was perceived to be a good thing, but because herd immunity – whereby enough people have been infected to become immune to the virus – had not been initially achieved, there were at least two additional epidemics of the Spanish flu virus within a year. The second wave of infections had a higher mortality rate than the first wave.

Learning the lesson from this, many people in Sweden are now optimistic that it can achieve herd immunity. Compared with the Spanish flu, COVID-19 is less severe, with many infected people believed to be asymptomatic. While this contributes to a more rapid spread, it also means that the threshold for “herd immunity” is about 60%. This may be quickly achieved in countries that do not have intensive mitigation or suppression strategies.

This may also lower the risk of further waves of the epidemic. So when we probe the lessons learned from the COVID-19 pandemic in the future, there will likely be a lot of focus on the success or failure of Sweden’s relatively relaxed initial approach. This would take into account not just the loss of lives from the pandemic, but also longer term social and economic negative consequences and the deaths they may cause.

Ultimately, given the uneven and relatively modest spread of the virus in Sweden at the moment, its initial strategy may not turn out to be reckless. But going forward, Sweden is likely to have to impose stricter restrictions depending on how the virus spreads, especially in metropolitan areas or when the healthcare system is under severe strain.


https://theconversation.com/sweden-under-fire-for-relaxed-coronavirus-approach-heres-the-science-behind-it-134926

[arista]

You can not compare Small Population Nation
to the UK


We are nothing like them
and will never be

[The Slim Reaper]

They will be forced to change their approach at some point.

[Kizzy]

I was going to raise this yesterday but forgot, Sweden has a similar infection rate to the Netherlands but the death rate is much much lower.. I wonder how?

[arista]

I was going to raise this yesterday but forgot, Sweden has a similar infection rate to the Netherlands but the death rate is much much lower.. I wonder how?


More Tests
Fast Blood test (made in China)
15mins

[James]

I was going to raise this yesterday but forgot, Sweden has a similar infection rate to the Netherlands but the death rate is much much lower.. I wonder how?

Could it be because Netherlands has a high population density?

[arista]

They will be forced to change their approach at some point.


Yes Death Rate can go up fast
105 dead from Covid 19 in Sweden.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

[Kizzy]

Could it be because Netherlands has a high population density?

Yes I guess but everyone has family even within households I'd have expected the figure to be greater. And the infection figure was similar, whereas if population density was a factor this figure would be lower too.
I'll see if I can find it.

[caprimint]

Herd immunity ftw :dance:

[Kizzy]

Sorry it was Switzerland! They have a really high infection rate one of the highest, and yet as of the 27th only 231 deaths.

[user104658]

Sorry it was Switzerland! They have a really high infection rate one of the highest, and yet as of the 27th only 231 deaths.

GDP per capita. They're rich and thus healthy.

For some actual figures; Switzerland has a GDPPC of over 80,000 USD.

For comparison, the UK's is around 40k, Germany 45k and those are high for Europe.

Italy's is 32k and Spain is 28k. In other words, the average person in Switzerland is nearly 3x richer than the average person in Spain.

And that affects basically everything. Lifestyle, healthcare, diet, smoking rates (poorer people smoke more and eat cheap) ...


Death percentages will roughly correlate with population wealth everywhere, that's why developing nations are going to be hit very, very hard when it reaches them. Places in Africa most of South America will see big death rates.


Tl;dr it's because of money. But isn't everything, always?

[edit] Just figure checking and Switzerland is has the second highest GDP in the world by a considerable margin after only Luxembourg which barely counts because its so tiny. Per person it's essentially the wealthiest country in the world.

[James]

Switzerland has a population of 8 million though. So 231 is a higher proportion than some other countries.

[user104658]

Switzerland has a population of 8 million though. So 231 is a higher proportion than some other countries.Population isn't a hugely relevant figure though, deaths/population means nothing, only deaths/cases.

[James]

There's a question mark over how many cases there actually are though?

[James]

I don't know what I'm talking about here. :o

[user104658]

There's a question mark over how many cases there actually are though?True, they might just have a better testing rate and not actually a higher infection rate.

[Kizzy]

According to the info Arista has posted on the other thread Switzerland has over 14,300 confirmed cases.

[user104658]

According to the info Arista has posted on the other thread Switzerland has over 14,300 confirmed cases.Tbh looking at the current numbers (similar confirmed cases with lower deaths) I do think it's probably down to wider-scale testing availability (their total cases number being more accurate). Though that is a £££ issue in itself, the tests currently aren't that cheap.

It does mean that, like SK, they're worth keeping an eye on to get a more accurate case-fatality rate since the total infected numbers for most countries are now wildly inaccurate.

[Kizzy]

So basically they are testing sooner and treating before people get so ill they die.

[user104658]

So basically they are testing sooner and treating before people get so ill they die.I don't know if there's evidence that early intervention makes much difference. It's more that Switzerland "officially" has 14,000 cases and 250-ish deaths where the UK "officially" has 20000 (or thereabouts) cases but well over 1000 deaths... Which looks much worse... But the truth is the UK testing situation ranges from "poor" to "non-existent" so the true number of cases is probably well over 50,000.

I'd actually say a reasonable assumption would be that Switzerland has over 50k and UK has several hundred thousand.

[Kizzy]

Are you saying they are on the same trajectory as us, or that all countries infection rates are a best guess?

[MTVN]

Another European country with a slightly different approach:

In Belarus, authoritarian leader President Alexander Lukashenko has famously scoffed at the coronavirus as a “frenzy and psychosis.” His views also come with advice for citizens who don’t share his coronavirus scorn: Hit the sauna, down some vodka and get back to work.

As surrounding countries have closed borders, shut down passenger transportation, banned mass events and effectively moved indoors, Belarus remains open, and Lukashenko stays defiant.

The country of 9.5 million — between Ukraine, Poland, Russia, Lithuania and Latvia — has reported 94 cases of coronavirus.

Still, Belarus’s soccer league plays on, the only one in Europe still on the field. Theaters are promoting premieres. Markets, shops, bars, restaurants and churches remain open, in the absence of any government order to the contrary.

The air force is conducting field exercises. A Christian Orthodox fair and exhibition, Easter Joy, will be held April 1-12 in the capital, Minsk, with events for families and children.

“This psychosis has crippled national economies almost everywhere in the world,” Lukashenko said Friday, visiting Belgips Plant, a plasterboard manufacturer.

It is a theme he has pounded relentlessly in recent weeks, convinced that the unprecedented measures against the pandemic are designed to benefit some and harm others. On March 19, he slammed the border closures by Belarus’s five neighbors as useless and “absolute and utter stupidity.”

Full article: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/no-lockdown-here-belaruss-strongman-rejects-coronavirus-risks-he-suggests-saunas-and-vodka/2020/03/27/7aab812c-7025-11ea-a156-0048b62cdb51_story.html

[Kizzy]

Another European country with a slightly different approach:

In Belarus, authoritarian leader President Alexander Lukashenko has famously scoffed at the coronavirus as a “frenzy and psychosis.” His views also come with advice for citizens who don’t share his coronavirus scorn: Hit the sauna, down some vodka and get back to work.

As surrounding countries have closed borders, shut down passenger transportation, banned mass events and effectively moved indoors, Belarus remains open, and Lukashenko stays defiant.

The country of 9.5 million — between Ukraine, Poland, Russia, Lithuania and Latvia — has reported 94 cases of coronavirus.

Still, Belarus’s soccer league plays on, the only one in Europe still on the field. Theaters are promoting premieres. Markets, shops, bars, restaurants and churches remain open, in the absence of any government order to the contrary.

The air force is conducting field exercises. A Christian Orthodox fair and exhibition, Easter Joy, will be held April 1-12 in the capital, Minsk, with events for families and children.

“This psychosis has crippled national economies almost everywhere in the world,” Lukashenko said Friday, visiting Belgips Plant, a plasterboard manufacturer.

It is a theme he has pounded relentlessly in recent weeks, convinced that the unprecedented measures against the pandemic are designed to benefit some and harm others. On March 19, he slammed the border closures by Belarus’s five neighbors as useless and “absolute and utter stupidity.”

Full article: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/no-lockdown-here-belaruss-strongman-rejects-coronavirus-risks-he-suggests-saunas-and-vodka/2020/03/27/7aab812c-7025-11ea-a156-0048b62cdb51_story.html
Leaders of countries can be ignorant. .who knew?

[user104658]

It can't be denied that there's a social element to this. I'm not saying it would be a good idea, it would be a horror show, but I strongly suspect that in this exact situation 50+ years ago countries like the UK would have taken the mortality hit and kept the economy open. Public would have gotten vague updates every week or so. Part of the reason governments are responding the way they are is that they're being watched by the whole world minute to minute.

[Cherie]

It can't be denied that there's a social element to this. I'm not saying it would be a good idea, it would be a horror show, but I strongly suspect that in this exact situation 50+ years ago countries like the UK would have taken the mortality hit and kept the economy open. Public would have gotten vague updates every week or so. Part of the reason governments are responding the way they are is that they're being watched by the whole world minute to minute.

That is exactly what happened with Spanish flu, they were aware of social distancing measures and how it would save lives but it was more important to win the war and keep people working in the munition factories

[Kizzy]

Well I don't know about that as they can't control who is exposed can they? Royals and the PM... if the plebs are affected fair play but when the 'ruling classes' are as vulnerable then it's got to be dealt with.

[user104658]

Well I don't know about that as they can't control who is exposed can they? Royals and the PM... if the plebs are affected fair play but when the 'ruling classes' are as vulnerable then it's got to be dealt with.I have at times wondered if all of the 50+ year old male politicians would be as bothered if most of the deaths weren't 50+ year old males. If it was a virus that mainly killed women and children they'd be like "Oh sad, keep calm and carry on".

[Kizzy]

I have at times wondered if all of the 50+ year old male politicians would be as bothered if most of the deaths weren't 50+ year old males. If it was a virus that mainly killed women and children they'd be like "Oh sad, keep calm and carry on".

Yep the likes of those who were ignoring the advice early on In Spain in the bars, the absolute twunt drivers who would come in work coughing and sneezing and get all offended when I told them to eff off away from me with their germs!...grrr!

Those same drivers who thought it was such a load of rollocks a couple of weeks ago are now wearing gloves and refusing to come in the gatehouse!! Lol they can be educated :laugh:

[arista]

Sweden on CNN HD

Blames China at the start of this,
They are not going change??

[Livia]

I have at times wondered if all of the 50+ year old male politicians would be as bothered if most of the deaths weren't 50+ year old males. If it was a virus that mainly killed women and children they'd be like "Oh sad, keep calm and carry on".

Yeah, politicians. Monsters, aren't they. No one in Parliament gives a flying **** about anyone else and they have no hearts at all.

[user104658]

Yeah, politicians. Monsters, aren't they. No one in Parliament gives a flying **** about anyone else and they have no hearts at all.They haven't been bothered about casually signing off on policies that have destroyed (and ended) lives in the past, so why now? Because you can't hide from a virus behind money, is why. In my humble opinion, of course of course.

[arista]

Sweden Covid 19 Deaths UP today
146


Professional Data : https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

[arista]

Another Jump UP

Covid 19 Deaths in Sweden today : 239

[Crimson Dynamo]

They haven't been bothered about casually signing off on policies that have destroyed (and ended) lives in the past, so why now? Because you can't hide from a virus behind money, is why. In my humble opinion, of course of course.

how do you know that politician "casually" did anything?

you dont

you are doing what tabloids do and you spent a lot of Jan and Feb criticising tabloids for doing what you just did


:idc:

[GoldHeart]

The mind baffles :umm2: , Sweden needs a kick up the backside seen as they're not taking this pandemic seriously.

Just watch ,when we think we're in the clear in the UK ,then some dummy from Sweden will bring it back and it will spread again :crazy: :bored:

[MTVN]

Another different approach:

Turkmenistan’s government has reportedly banned the word “coronavirus” from being used by local media or health information brochures while denying the disease’s presence in the country.

According to independent news source Turkmenistan Chronicle, brochures with information about the prevention of viral diseases distributed by the Ministry of Health have dropped any mention of the coronavirus.

Police are also detaining citizens just for discussing the pandemic, which has swept the globe. Radio Azatlyk reports that “special” agents in civilian clothing eavesdrop on public conversations to identify anyone talking about coronavirus.

Full article: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/coronavirus-turkmenistan-ban-masks-word-a9438266.html

Must be working as despite bordering Iran they currently have zero confirmed cases :clap1:

[bots]

Another different approach:



Must be working as despite bordering Iran they currently have zero confirmed cases :clap1:

banning the word makes the virus disappear ....

[arista]

Sweden is on Ch4HDnews now

[Zizu]

Sweden is on Ch4HDnews now



Interesting take on the situation in Sweden


https://theconversation.com/amp/sweden-under-fire-for-relaxed-coronavirus-approach-heres-the-science-behind-it-134926


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[user104658]

The mind baffles :umm2: , Sweden needs a kick up the backside seen as they're not taking this pandemic seriously.

Just watch ,when we think we're in the clear in the UK ,then some dummy from Sweden will bring it back and it will spread again :crazy: :bored:

If you're worried about that then you're out of luck I'm afraid; there are countries much larger than Sweden where they cannot "lockdown", at all. India, for example, and most of Africa. The lockdowns can't, won't, and are not intended to "snub out" the virus... a lot of people still seem to be under the impression that they are, and I can only put that down to poor reporting.

[Zizu]

The mind baffles :umm2: , Sweden needs a kick up the backside seen as they're not taking this pandemic seriously.



Just watch ,when we think we're in the clear in the UK ,then some dummy from Sweden will bring it back and it will spread again :crazy: :bored:



Those damn Viking rampagers !


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[michael21]

Sweden Covid 19 Deaths UP today
146


Professional Data : https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Why do you keep saying up its not going to go down is it

[arista]

Sweden a Nation that ignores
Lockdown
and has all shops open
are fools.

Great Report today on Ch4HD news

[GoldHeart]

If you're worried about that then you're out of luck I'm afraid; there are countries much larger than Sweden where they cannot "lockdown", at all. India, for example, and most of Africa. The lockdowns can't, won't, and are not intended to "snub out" the virus... a lot of people still seem to be under the impression that they are, and I can only put that down to poor reporting.

But TS Sweden is the polar opposite of those poverty stricken countries you just mentioned . Surely regardless of the testing and population it would be benefactory to put Sweden on lockdown.

India & Places in Africa have soo many other problems to worry about , the lockdown system isn't perfect and of course these countries will struggle . But the whole point is to reduce the risk of spreading .

[arista]

358 Deaths today in relaxed Sweden

[user104658]

But TS Sweden is the polar opposite of those poverty stricken countries you just mentioned . Surely regardless of the testing and population it would be benefactory to put Sweden on lockdown.



India & Places in Africa have soo many other problems to worry about , the lockdown system isn't perfect and of course these countries will struggle . But the whole point is to reduce the risk of spreading .My point really was that Sweden is a small country and you were worried about someone from there bringing it back into the UK... But the risk is obviously much larger from these huge countries where its going to be spreading freely at some point.

[Nicky91]

have a swedish friend on discord (also there the whole coronacrisis is being discussed)


he said most people who live in bigger cities like Stockholm, still also going on holiday despite warnings not to due to the risk of being infected with the virus

[Livia]

They said on the radio earlier that Sweden has a much lower population, more spread out and many more people who live alone.

[arista]

401 Deaths

[Zizu]

401 Deaths



How’s the daily death count graph looking though .. how’s the curve


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[James]

https://specials-images.forbesimg.com/imageserve/5e884c4201879f000703d20d/960x0.jpg?fit=scale

A picture taken on April 1, 2020 shows people on Queens street in Stockholm, amid the novel coronavirus pandemic.

From https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesasquith/2020/04/04/no-lockdowns-in-sweden-as-stockholm-remains-open-parks-and-open-air-museums-operating/#560f6822707a

They said on the radio earlier that Sweden has a much lower population, more spread out and many more people who live alone.

Yeah I think that will be a big factor in how it spreads, and shows that it is difficult to make direct comparisons between countries.

[arista]

How’s the daily death count graph looking though .. how’s the curve


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro


Up Curve its
doubled the early Deaths in a few days.


Still a nation without our or USA
Separation advice

[arista]

477 Covid 19 Deaths on Relaxed Sweden today

[Zizu]

477 Covid 19 Deaths on Relaxed Sweden today



Is that good or bad ..


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[Marsh.]

Arista: Death

Zizu: Is that bad?

[MTVN]

477 Covid 19 Deaths on Relaxed Sweden today

In total though, not today

[user104658]

Is that good or bad ..


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk ProTheir death rate is still relatively low, but also they're still quite early in the "cycle" compared to other countries.

[Zizu]

Mmmmm

Sweden
Sweden prepares for possible tighter coronavirus measures as deaths rise
Country, which has taken soft approach, has death rate higher than Nordic neighbours’

Sweden’s government is drawing up new legislation to allow it to take “extraordinary steps” to combat Covid-19, local media have reported, amid concern that its relatively soft approach may be leading to a higher death rate than in other Nordic countries.
Denmark and Norway are among the many countries to have imposed tough lockdowns, closing borders and shutting schools and non-essential stores, and Finland has isolated its main urban area around Helsinki. But Swedes are still able to shop, go to restaurants, get haircuts and send children under 16 to class.
On Sunday Sweden reported a total of 401 deaths so far from Covid-19, up 8% from Saturday and greater than the totals of its three Nordic neighbours combined


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[Cherie]

Mmmmm

Sweden
Sweden prepares for possible tighter coronavirus measures as deaths rise
Country, which has taken soft approach, has death rate higher than Nordic neighbours’

Sweden’s government is drawing up new legislation to allow it to take “extraordinary steps” to combat Covid-19, local media have reported, amid concern that its relatively soft approach may be leading to a higher death rate than in other Nordic countries.
Denmark and Norway are among the many countries to have imposed tough lockdowns, closing borders and shutting schools and non-essential stores, and Finland has isolated its main urban area around Helsinki. But Swedes are still able to shop, go to restaurants, get haircuts and send children under 16 to class.
On Sunday Sweden reported a total of 401 deaths so far from Covid-19, up 8% from Saturday and greater than the totals of its three Nordic neighbours combined


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BBC interviewed a guy living in Stockholm, he said even though everything is open, people are not going out....interesting isn’t it

[Zizu]

BBC interviewed a guy living in Stockholm, he said even though everything is open, people are not going out....interesting isn’t it



Not sure about that .. Sky showed footage of a crammed shopping precinct a few days ago .,


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[Kizzy]

They will have seen how it's ravaged Europe, I can understand how that would make them more cautious about spending more time outdoors than it necessary.

[arista]

In total though, not today


Of Course.

[arista]

Sweden Death Total Today 591

[Zizu]

Not sure about that .. Sky showed footage of a crammed shopping precinct a few days ago .,


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro



Even worse than this shot taken just days ago https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200407/ba25a316df22482e5029c0e0dd1085f1.jpg


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[arista]

Sweden 687
Death Total update today

[GoldHeart]

Sweden 687
Death Total update today

They're not worried , they just carry on as normal :bored:

[bots]

its probably well within their medical capacity at the moment, if that changes, they will change their approach

[Zizu]

Sweden 687
Death Total update today



So up from 591 ??

Nearly a 20% in deaths increase in just 24 hours !?


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[arista]

So up from 591 ??

Nearly a 20% in deaths increase in just 24 hours !?


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Yes they are far to relaxed

[The Slim Reaper]

Looks like the last straw grabbers are left with Belarus.

[Beso]

Looks like it's weather orientated to me...roll on the summer.

[The Slim Reaper]

Looks like it's weather orientated to me...roll on the summer.

What's your thinking?

[Beso]

What's your thinking?



The thing that got me was it started in china, yet spread rapidly westwards mainly..up through Italy and Spain in thier winters, than making its way to the colder areas as Spain and Italy started getting warmer..that pic is Sweden in April and they all have big warm jackets on and gloves of the leather variety...I believe it's looking for cold places as it sweeps the world..

It must have been a strong easterly wind in china the day it took off.
Probably bollocks, but it's what I believe:shrug:

[MTVN]

The thing that got me was it started in china, yet spread rapidly westwards mainly..up through Italy and Spain in thier winters, than making its way to the colder areas as Spain and Italy started getting warmer..that pic is Sweden in April and they all have big warm jackets on and gloves of the leather variety...I believe it's looking for cold places as it sweeps the world..

It must have been a strong easterly wind in china the day it took off.
Probably bollocks, but it's what I believe:shrug:

Also remember two countries that haven't been as badly affected - New Zealand and Australia - have been in their summer

[bots]

Also remember two countries that haven't been as badly affected - New Zealand and Australia - have been in their summer

uv light kills it, so it can still pass person to person but it wont survive outside for long

[Beso]

Also remember two countries that haven't been as badly affected - New Zealand and Australia - have been in their summer


And it seems to be heading westwards rather than eastwards from China.

[user104658]

uv light kills it, so it can still pass person to person but it wont survive outside for longSunlight is one of the best natural disinfectants there is, (and is why other viruses are less active in summer) - there is still plenty of reason to believe that longer days will help bring numbers down. The myth of course is that it has anything to do with heat (people believing that it still spreading in hotter countries meant summer wouldn't help). Number of daylight hours is the more important factor. Though direct sunlight is better so hope for a clear summer, not a grey one like last year.

Of course that's why it could also massively surge at the end of September and no one should get complacent over summer. If it DOES decline significantly in June/July we should use the three summer months to bolster ICU capacity and ventilators so that healthcare services are hopefully over-prepared once we get back into long nights and a potential second wave. I'd imagine another lockdown in October-December is also very possible.

[Beso]

Sunlight is one of the best natural disinfectants there is, (and is why other viruses are less active in summer) - there is still plenty of reason to believe that longer days will help bring numbers down. The myth of course is that it has anything to do with heat (people believing that it still spreading in hotter countries meant summer wouldn't help). Number of daylight hours is the more important factor. Though direct sunlight is better so hope for a clear summer, not a grey one like last year.

Of course that's why it could also massively surge at the end of September and no one should get complacent over summer. If it DOES decline significantly in June/July we should use the three summer months to bolster ICU capacity and ventilators so that healthcare services are hopefully over-prepared once we get back into long nights and a potential second wave. I'd imagine another lockdown in October-December is also very possible.

I'm saving up money to plane hop to warmer climates as it spreads next winter.

[bots]

one could invest in a uv lamp and blast everything with it for 10 mins when its brought into the house

[The Slim Reaper]

Bots when he gets his new lamp

https://i.ytimg.com/vi/dvFzBTlFaww/maxresdefault.jpg

[Kizzy]

uv light kills it, so it can still pass person to person but it wont survive outside for long

Makes you wonder why they were stopping people sunbathing then tbh, I read it couldn't survive over 26 degrees not that we ever get near that here :)

[Kizzy]

one could invest in a uv lamp and blast everything with it for 10 mins when its brought into the house

Is the queen getting one? .. ;)

[James]

The higher temperatures in California might also partly explain why Los Angeles hasn't been as badly affected as New York. As well as people being more spread out in LA and they also like driving everywhere, whereas New York uses public transport more.

I always thought that with colds and flu, more people got them during the winter because they congregated indoors more, and they spread more easily, but I'm not sure how much that is true.

[bots]

Is the queen getting one? .. ;)

it's when i start using the royal 'we' you really have to worry :laugh:

[LaLaLand]

The higher temperatures in California might also partly explain why Los Angeles hasn't been as badly affected as New York. As well as people being more spread out in LA and they also like driving everywhere, whereas New York uses public transport more.

I always thought that with colds and flu, more people got them during the winter because they congregated indoors more, and they spread more easily, but I'm not sure how much that is true.

I've been thinking the same.

Also been thinking about how the mass, mass majority of people who live in NYC obviously live in high-rise apartments/skyscrapers, which all have shared air conditioning systems. Both of these are pretty big factors in the spread. The fact there are potentially hundreds in one building, using the same elevators/stairs etc and then the same A/C which can spread germs room to room, apartment to apartment very quickly. I know it's cold there now as you mentioned, but surely many will still be using their air con.

[Crimson Dynamo]

Well my old mum's house should be ok as it shares the same ambient temperature as the surface of Mercury

[bots]

Well my old mum's house should be ok as it shares the same ambient temperature as the surface of Mercury

temperature isn't relevant it's uv light intensity that does the trick. If it's a sunny day, open all the windows and let the light stream in. UV doesn't pass through glass

[Crimson Dynamo]

temperature isn't relevant it's uv light intensity that does the trick. If it's a sunny day, open all the windows and let the light stream in. UV doesn't pass through glass

She hasn't to opened a window since 1982

[Zizu]

temperature isn't relevant it's uv light intensity that does the trick. If it's a sunny day, open all the windows and let the light stream in. UV doesn't pass through glass



True .. although I’ve never really understood WHY the UV rays don’t pass through glass !


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[bots]

True .. although I’ve never really understood WHY the UV rays don’t pass through glass !


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well they will pass through a bit, but not efficiently. There are not many of us that slap the sun tan lotion on if we are sitting inside on a sunny day :laugh:

[user104658]

True .. although I’ve never really understood WHY the UV rays don’t pass through glass !


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk ProMost modern glass is specifically designed to block UV rays because they of course, much as we love them, technically cause damage (its the UV that gives you sun burn, and skin cancer...). So you also for example can pay more for windscreen glass that has a higher UV filtering level if you drive around a lot in sunny climates.

It causing sunburn is the same reason it kills bacteria and viruses btw... You can also bleach (some) stains out of white clothes by leaving them out in strong sunlight :thumbs:

[user104658]

well they will pass through a bit, but not efficiently. There are not many of us that slap the sun tan lotion on if we are sitting inside on a sunny day [emoji23]Just to add more interesting junk knowledge; on the topic of suntan lotion, the reason it protects your skin from the sun is that it contains microparticles that do exactly the same thing as glass (let visible light through whilst blocking UV)

[Zizu]

Interesting info , peeps . Regards


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[Livia]

Well my old mum's house should be ok as it shares the same ambient temperature as the surface of Mercury
Haha.... like my Grandmother. Her heating has a tropical setting, I'm sure.

[user104658]

Haha.... like my Grandmother. Her heating has a tropical setting, I'm sure.When we visit my wife's grandparents - usually in the middle of summer as they live down in England - they ALWAYS have the gas fire on in the living room. Always. I can't physically handle it for more than 15 minutes, I feel like I'm going to literally pass out... And they have it like that permanently :umm2:.

[arista]

Total of Deaths now : 793 from Covid 19

[arista]

Total of Deaths now : 873
Covid 19 getting a Hold in Sweden.

[arista]

Sweden: 887 Death Total today

[Zizu]

Interesting to see that Sweden have 4 to 5 times more deaths than Denmark, Norway or Finland yet only have DOUBLE the others populations !!


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[James]

Sweden has not done enough, admits PM

Throughout the pandemic, Sweden's response to the coronavirus has been an odd one out. Unlike most of Europe, it did not introduce a lockdown - cafes and restaurants remain open, and schools have not closed. Although the government advised against non-essential travel, it has largely been business as usual, albeit a bit quieter.

Now Prime Minister Stefan Löfven has admitted that Sweden was not properly prepared for the pandemic and that it is "obvious that country has not done enough". Restaurants not observing social distancing should be shut, he told Swedish broadcaster SVT.

In Sweden, 870 people have died from the virus - many more than neighbours Denmark (247) and Norway (113), where lockdowns were introduced in early March.


That is from the BBC.

[arista]

1,033
Current Covid 19 Deaths in relaxed Sweden.

[Zizu]

1,033
Current Covid 19 Deaths in relaxed Sweden.



What’s the trend though .. these individual figures are just meaningless tbh


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[arista]

A report
on CNN HD at 3:35PM
said half of killed were in homes of the Elderly.

W.H.O.
said in 2 or 3 weeks time it could be far worse.

[arista]

Sweden now at 1,203 Deaths from Covid 19

[Zizu]

Sweden now at 1,203 Deaths from Covid 19



Is that a positive or a negative ?


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[Kizzy]

Is that a positive or a negative ?


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Is death ever seen as a positive?

[Zizu]

Is death ever seen as a positive?



Relatively speaking ..


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[Kizzy]

Relatively speaking ..


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Define relative.

[Zizu]

Define relative.



“ considered in relation or in proportion to something else “

Google is your friend :)


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[MTVN]

Relatively speaking ..


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Its a much more severe death toll than their neighbours Norway who locked down early

1250538655707430913

I think its definitely clear that lockdown do save lives in the short term, it might be years before we know what the best approach was in the long run though

[Zizu]

Its a much more severe death toll than their neighbours Norway who locked down early



1250538655707430913



I think its definitely clear that lockdown do save lives in the short term, it might be years before we know what the best approach was in the long run though



Fair comments

Thanks for the Twitter link as well !


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[user104658]

Its a much more severe death toll than their neighbours Norway who locked down early



1250538655707430913



I think its definitely clear that lockdown do save lives in the short term, it might be years before we know what the best approach was in the long run thoughIn terms of these graphs, it's worth remembering that Sweden does have roughly double the population of its Scandinavian neighbours. It is still a steeper death toll even with adjusted figures, but you can't do a flat comparison between, say, Norway (5.3 million) and Sweden (10.2 million). You would expect Sweden's figures to be double.

[Kizzy]

According to that the curve is flattening everywhere...is this purely due to lockdown?

[user104658]

According to that the curve is flattening everywhere...is this purely due to lockdown?That graph uses a non-linear x-axis so the illustration is unclear.

A LOT of the newspapers use these for Covid stuff and I honestly think it's very unhelpful because most readers aren't going to know what they're looking at.

In basic terms, the "blocks" on the vertical axis are not regular intervals. The first block represents 10 people, the second block represents 90 people, the third block represents 900 people... Thus the line will look exponentially less steep in third section than in the second even if the number is actually higher, creating the illusion of "slowing" or "flattening".

Look for the ones where it is actually flat or where it has started to drop back down. Otherwise, zoom in and look ONLY at the third block on the vertical axis to assess the curve.

[bots]

People are trying to draw simple conclusions from 1 piece of data and that is absurdly wrong. The factors that we know about are age, health, population density, transportation facilities and weather. There are probably a dozen more all interacting with each other to produce an outcome. So while it might be nice to say that something appears to be working to help, we have no real idea until we know more, and we model it properly. It's only a couple of steps off total speculation at the moment

[Zizu]

Belgium are following Denmark in opening up more shops and facilities DESPITE having horrendous stats for deaths and infection increases.. whilst Denmark’s stats are marvellous in comparison.


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[Cherie]

There is talk of opening schools here in May in non hot spot areas

[user104658]

There is talk of opening schools here in May in non hot spot areasHeadmasters union want to open for a couple of weeks before summer if possible, because transitioning into new classes after summer will be very difficult without any prep before summer.

I think it largely depends on the numbers, though.

We're in the "lucky" position of having one kid who is well ahead of her year level in all areas, and another in special provision where targets are individual anyway so there are no arbitrary levels. This whole situation is an absolute disaster for kids in mainstream education who were at the expected level, or slightly behind. Some kids will be playing catchup for years to come and it'll have a dramatic impact on the outcome of their education overall.

Schools are doing their best with online resources etc. but there comes a point where we have to conceded that it's not the same at all.

[Zizu]

There is talk of opening schools here in May in non hot spot areas



What country ?


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[user104658]

What country ?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk ProCherie is a dirty immigrant worker living in the UK, taking our jobs and further burdening our fragile pensions system. Makes me sick. This isn't what we Brexitted for is it? For Cherie to drain our resources and take up space in the NHS.

[edit] Sadly because of the world we live in, I feel like I need to clarify that this is said in jest :worry:

[Cherie]

What country ?


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UK

Cherie is a dirty immigrant worker living in the UK, taking our jobs and further burdening our fragile pensions system. Makes me sick. This isn't what we Brexitted for is it? For Cherie to drain our resources and take up space in the NHS.

[edit] Sadly because of the world we live in, I feel like I need to clarify that this is said in jest :worry:

:omgno: I ain't moving ...yet.. although I think this might precipitate our planned exodus from the big Smoke :laugh:

[Zizu]

UK







::



So where have you heard May mentioned in regards to schools !?

Any links ?


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[arista]

"Cherie is a dirty immigrant worker living in the UK,"

Sure TS
but she is Quality Worker
we need them in England


And That Lady has ever right to Free NHS

[James]

There was an scientific study recently which said that closing schools, only had a minimal impact on the spread of the virus - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52180783

[Cherie]

So where have you heard May mentioned in regards to schools !?

Any links ?


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https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1268392/uk-schools-reopen-uk-school-closures-uk-schools-open-coronavirus-news-latest

and it was reported across a lot of media a few days ago

The whole point of the lockdown was to defer the peak so that the NHS got over the months of the year when they would be struggling with other viral illnesses like seasonal flu, we cant stay closed for business until a vaccine is found

[MTVN]

There's an interview here with one of the experts advising Sweden: https://unherd.com/thepost/coming-up-epidemiologist-prof-johan-giesecke-shares-lessons-from-sweden/

That was one of the more extraordinary interviews we have done here at UnHerd.

Professor Johan Giesecke, one of the world’s most senior epidemiologists, advisor to the Swedish Government (he hired Anders Tegnell who is currently directing Swedish strategy), the first Chief Scientist of the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, and an advisor to the director general of the WHO, lays out with typically Swedish bluntness why he thinks:

UK policy on lockdown and other European countries are not evidence-based

The correct policy is to protect the old and the frail only
This will eventually lead to herd immunity as a “by-product”

The initial UK response, before the “180 degree U-turn”, was better

The Imperial College paper was “not very good” and he has never seen an unpublished paper have so much policy impact

The paper was very much too pessimistic

Any such models are a dubious basis for public policy anyway

The flattening of the curve is due to the most vulnerable dying first as much as the lockdown

The results will eventually be similar for all countries

Covid-19 is a “mild disease” and similar to the flu, and it was the novelty of the disease that scared people.

The actual fatality rate of Covid-19 is the region of 0.1%

At least 50% of the population of both the UK and Sweden will be shown to have already had the disease when mass antibody testing becomes available

[Zizu]

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1268392/uk-schools-reopen-uk-school-closures-uk-schools-open-coronavirus-news-latest



and it was reported across a lot of media a few days ago



The whole point of the lockdown was to defer the peak so that the NHS got over the months of the year when they would be struggling with other viral illnesses like seasonal flu, we cant stay closed for business until a vaccine is found



Mmmmm seems very optimistic given we’re still seeing around a THOUSAND people dying every 24 hours - that could remain fairly high for the next couple of months I fear .


I still think the last two weeks of the summer term are the most likely.


It actually talks about June 1st being a possibility but then says ...

“now if the public health experts indicate that schools can return before the summer holidays, even for two weeks, there will be a sense of educational rebirth, of bringing young people back together “


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[Cherie]

Mmmmm seems very optimistic given we’re still seeing around a THOUSAND people dying every 24 hours - that could remain fairly high for the next couple of months I fear .


I still think the last two weeks of the summer term are the most likely.


It actually talks about June 1st being a possibility but then says ...

“now if the public health experts indicate that schools can return before the summer holidays, even for two weeks, there will be a sense of educational rebirth, of bringing young people back together “


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I think they will reopen in some way, before the holidays maybe not all classes but Year 6 for transition is important, and maybe nursery to Reception

[Zizu]

I think they will reopen in some way, before the holidays maybe not all classes but Year 6 for transition is important, and maybe nursery to Reception



Yes that’s my viewpoint as well .. the last two or three weeks before the summer holidays would be nice .. remember 90%+ of pupils will be livid that they’re back in schools at all - even for that short few weeks


Somebody ( a SLT) told my daughter that they ( the schools) could be back in three weeks !!

That’s sounds very , very unlikely but that person will have a much better idea about things than I will , I guess

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[Kizzy]

“ considered in relation or in proportion to something else “

Google is your friend :)


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Death is a positive in relation to what?
Google can't help me unravel your logic here.

[Zizu]

Death is a positive in relation to what?

Google can't help me unravel your logic here.



Death is rarely a positive in my book .. I’ve no idea what you’re on about tbh


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[arista]

Sweden 1,540 Total Covid 19 Deaths.

[Kizzy]

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/sweden-coronavirus-deaths-lockdown-social-distancing-denmark-finland-norway-a9470771.html

[arista]

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/sweden-coronavirus-deaths-lockdown-social-distancing-denmark-finland-norway-a9470771.html


Yes Sweden
is far to relaxed.

Crazy

[MTVN]

Even with no lockdown the rate of hospital admissions is slowing in Sweden though and will soon be falling which suggests they are at around their peak

1251967620934443008

[Niamh.]

Even with no lockdown the rate of hospital admissions is slowing in Sweden though and will soon be falling which suggests they are at around their peak

1251967620934443008Hopefully it's just starting to die off like flu does

[Zizu]

Even with no lockdown the rate of hospital admissions is slowing in Sweden though and will soon be falling which suggests they are at around their peak

1251967620934443008



That sounds positive yet when you compare the deaths / million to Finland , Denmark and Norway then Sweden’s figures are dreadful


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[Zizu]

Hopefully it's just starting to die off like flu does



I’ve not heard one single scientist/microbiologist suggest that anything remotely similar to that is likely to occur


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[arista]

Covid 19 Death Total is 1,580 today

[Zizu]

Interesting development ..

The head of WHO has apparently just stated that the worst is yet ahead of us and latest tests show that only 2 to 3% of populations have been infected by Covid 19 ana that’s even in heavily affected countries !!


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[arista]

Covid 19 Death Total is 1,765 today

[arista]

1,937 Covid Deaths Total today.

[Cherie]

Guess thats not working out so well for them did, Ohio etc take note

[arista]

Last night Sweden's Covid 19 death rate total
was 2,021

Also last night BBC2 NewsnightHD
did a update report.
Some are saying they are doing Herd Immunity
old people know they must stay at home etc.

[GoldHeart]

Why don't they quit this relaxed foolery and actually get tough . They have the resources to self isolate.

Other poorer countries don't .

[James]

How Swedes follow social distancing guidelines.

1252634021596626944

[arista]

Sweden tonight's Covid Death's : 2,192

[arista]

Sweden's Covid 19 Total today is 2,355

[arista]

2,586 Todays Death Covid 19 Total

[arista]

Sweden now at 3,040 Covid 19
Death Total

[Nicky91]

https://www.mupload.nl/img/z6k8baaz0fd.png

huge decrease in number of ICU cases in Sweden

[arista]

huge decrease in number of ICU cases in Sweden

Great Nicky, but kill off the old in Sweden


Sweden now at 3,175 Covid 19
Death Total

[arista]

4,029 Death Total today in Sweden.

[arista]

5,041 Covid-19 Death total now


This System in Sweden is not working

[user104658]

5,041 Covid-19 Death total now


This System in Sweden is not working

44 deaths per day by your new figures, 47 deaths per day at your last figures. It's not eliminating it but it's not not working... their figures are at a plateau/slight decrease. If it wasn't working there would be exponential increase.

[arista]

44 deaths per day by your new figures, 47 deaths per day at your last figures. It's not eliminating it but it's not not working... their figures are at a plateau/slight decrease. If it wasn't working there would be exponential increase.


We will see if the numbers
go up higher

[bots]

Sweden's health service was never in any danger of being overwhelmed, so they took the correct approach. There is no point in having a lock down unless the health service is in danger of collapse