Current UK Corona Death total could be 40,000+

[Smithy]

The real death toll from coronavirus in the UK is already more than 40,000, a new analysis suggests – twice the total once described as “a good result”.

Ministers announced on Tuesday that there have been 17,337 fatalities, but this counts only those who have died in hospitals after testing positive for the virus.

Meanwhile, the office for national statistics (ONS) has found the number of registered deaths in the week ending 10 April was 75 per cent above normal in England and Wales, at 18,516.

Now the Financial Times has used that figure to calculate the likely number of “excess deaths” since the coronavirus struck the UK – concluding it could be as many as 41,000.

As 24 per cent of deaths normally occur in care homes, the analysis suggests that just under 11,000 more people than normal have died in residential care, probably from Covid-19.

Carl Henegan, professor of evidence based medicine at Oxford University, said: “I don’t think we’ve ever seen such a sharp upturn in deaths at that rate.”

He said the seasonal flu outbreak in 2017-18 may have killed 50,000 people in the UK, but those deaths “were spread out over many weeks”.

Last month, Stephen Powis, the medical director at NHS England, said 20,000 coronavirus deaths would be “a good result” – when an Imperial College study predicted as few as 5,700.

Excess deaths from all causes stand at 16,952 above the seasonal average across the UK since fatalities from Covid-19, the disease caused by the virus, began to mount in mid-March.

But, because of the lag in collating death registrations data, the ONS figures cover only the period to 10 April 10 are significantly out of date.

Assuming the relationship between hospital deaths and excess deaths has remained stable since, the FT’s estimate of total deaths from the virus by 21 April 21 is 41,102.

They are made up of almost 38,000 deaths in England and Wales, just under 3,000 in Scotland and just below 500 in Northern Ireland.

The ONS has described the number of recorded deaths as “unprecedented”, especially given the sunny and warm weather in the run-up to the Easter weekend.

:worry:

I just had a look at the Guernsey figures for comparison and 11 people have died here, however only one of them was in hospital :worry:

[Cherie]

'probably from Covid' ?

'could be'

clickbait at its best Smithy

[Cal.]

'probably from Covid' ?

'could be'

clickbait at its best Smithy

But a death rate 75% higher than normal is not just a coincidence Cherie surely

[bots]

The group that publishes the death figures usually, reported that the death rate was the highest for 20 years, which isn't really that long ago and I don't remember anyone commenting on it at the time. Indeed, back then it was Labour running the show :laugh:

Deaths in England and Wales have nearly doubled above what would be expected, hitting a 20-year high.

The Office for National Statistics said there were 18,500 deaths in the week up to 10 April - about 8,000 more than is normal at this time of year.

A third were linked to coronavirus, but deaths from other causes also increased, suggesting the lockdown may be having an indirect impact on health.

But experts believe this period could well be when virus deaths peaked.

They point to a separate analysis by NHS England which showed since 8 April the number of deaths in hospitals have been falling when you look at the date of death.

The daily figures presented by government just show when hospital deaths are announced - there is often a delay in recording and reporting which masks when a drop in deaths starts happening.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52361519

[Nicky91]

'probably from Covid' ?

'could be'

clickbait at its best Smithy

:umm2:

of course death numbers are higher than what we see now, not all deaths of covid are reported on same day

so even when the virus is gone yes that will happen eventually 2 years maybe (numbers will still add up for a few weeks longer)

[Cherie]

But a death rate 75% higher than normal is not just a coincidence Cherie surely

of course the death rate is 75% higher than normal due to all the hospital deaths from Covid :shrug: its not 75% higher excluding Covid is it?

[user104658]

This is ignoring the uncomfortable truth that everyone seems super keen to ignore - that not all of the excess deaths are Covid. People are dying more than usual of all sorts of things, because services are shut down, no one can see a GP, no one can get through to NHS 111, people arent being diagnosed with potentially fatal health problems like sepsis, people having strokes and heart attacks ignore symptoms because they're too scared to go to A&E. People don't have adequate access to normal healthcare.

This has been coming for months and this is just the start; in a few months we'll start to see the impact of missed cancer diagnoses. ONE paper finally had a headline about this yesterday. Everyone has been hyper focused on the pandemic and now we're starting to see the very real toll that will have... Because whilst it might seem that "all that matters is the virus" right now... It's just not true and the non-Covid death toll caused by lockdown is going to start soaring. There was always going to be a cost. Too many people have tried to pretend for too long that there wasn't, and this is the absolute tip of the iceberg.

[Cherie]

This is ignoring the uncomfortable truth that everyone seems super keen to ignore - that not all of the excess deaths are Covid. People are dying more than usual of all sorts of things, because services are shut down, no one can see a GP, no one can get through to NHS 111, people arent being diagnosed with potentially fatal health problems like sepsis, people having strokes and heart attacks ignore symptoms because they're too scared to go to A&E. People don't have adequate access to normal healthcare.

This has been coming for months and this is just the start; in a few months we'll start to see the impact of missed cancer diagnoses. ONE paper finally had a headline about this yesterday. Everyone has been hyper focused on the pandemic and now we're starting to see the very real toll that will have... Because whilst it might seem that "all that matters is the virus" right now... It's just not true and the non-Covid death toll caused by lockdown is going to start soaring. There was always going to be a cost. Too many people have tried to pretend for too long that there wasn't, and this is the absolute tip of the iceberg.

exactly, the article seems to be implying that everyone who died in the last 6 weeks died of Covid

[Nicky91]

This is ignoring the uncomfortable truth that everyone seems super keen to ignore - that not all of the excess deaths are Covid. People are dying more than usual of all sorts of things, because services are shut down, no one can see a GP, no one can get through to NHS 111, people arent being diagnosed with potentially fatal health problems like sepsis, people having strokes and heart attacks ignore symptoms because they're too scared to go to A&E. People don't have adequate access to normal healthcare.

This has been coming for months and this is just the start; in a few months we'll start to see the impact of missed cancer diagnoses. ONE paper finally had a headline about this yesterday. Everyone has been hyper focused on the pandemic and now we're starting to see the very real toll that will have... Because whilst it might seem that "all that matters is the virus" right now... It's just not true and the non-Covid death toll caused by lockdown is going to start soaring. There was always going to be a cost. Too many people have tried to pretend for too long that there wasn't, and this is the absolute tip of the iceberg.

quite opposite to 2009/2010 with swine flu when many deaths were labelled as normal flu victims

[Crimson Dynamo]

| doubt many people know

how many people die per day, week, month and year in the UK during a regular year and of what

so i cant imagine these people fully understand the figures quoted

(and oh, its the clickbait independent "newspaper")

[bots]

This is ignoring the uncomfortable truth that everyone seems super keen to ignore - that not all of the excess deaths are Covid. People are dying more than usual of all sorts of things, because services are shut down, no one can see a GP, no one can get through to NHS 111, people arent being diagnosed with potentially fatal health problems like sepsis, people having strokes and heart attacks ignore symptoms because they're too scared to go to A&E. People don't have adequate access to normal healthcare.

This has been coming for months and this is just the start; in a few months we'll start to see the impact of missed cancer diagnoses. ONE paper finally had a headline about this yesterday. Everyone has been hyper focused on the pandemic and now we're starting to see the very real toll that will have... Because whilst it might seem that "all that matters is the virus" right now... It's just not true and the non-Covid death toll caused by lockdown is going to start soaring. There was always going to be a cost. Too many people have tried to pretend for too long that there wasn't, and this is the absolute tip of the iceberg.

in that report i detailed above, which is the actual stats, it was 8k more than normal in the peak week with 2 thirds not related to covid, so yes, its keeping people away from hospital for one reason or another

[Kizzy]

'probably from Covid' ?

'could be'

clickbait at its best Smithy

What would you suggest has caused the excess deaths we are seeing cherie?

When it's a stated fact that deaths are 75% above normal how is that clickbait?

It can't be said with any certainty that Covid killed everyone, however if it wasn't the primary cause of death it was a contributory factor and is the reason it is highlighted on the death certificates of so many.

[Cherie]

see above kizzy for answers

[Kizzy]

The group that publishes the death figures usually, reported that the death rate was the highest for 20 years, which isn't really that long ago and I don't remember anyone commenting on it at the time. Indeed, back then it was Labour running the show :laugh:



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52361519

The figures show that the overall number of deaths topped 18,500. That is the highest since January 2000 when there was a bad flu outbreak.

Are you attempting to politicise this issue?... Why the reference to Labour being in charge during an outbreak of flu? (for which there was a vaccine)
That's low, and rather pathetic.

[Cherie]

are GPs even attending nursing homes or are they signing off on Certs remotely?

[Kizzy]

exactly, the article seems to be implying that everyone who died in the last 6 weeks died of Covid

Not true, if the death certificate mentions covid then that is reflected in the ONS figures. If it doesn't it isn't.

[Cherie]

Not true, if the death certificate mentions covid then that is reflected in the ONS figures. If it doesn't it isn't.

are GPs even attending nursing homes or are they signing off on Certs remotely?

do you know?

[bots]

it actually raises a whole new question for me. Normally a funeral director comes and picks up the bodies, but thats a whole new ball game with potential covid victims. Does anyone know what the process is? because the bodies would need to be isolated.

[Kizzy]

do you know?

Yes due to emergency legislation from March they can sign remotely.

Do you think they are making mistakes, that any death is being signed off as covid related?

[Kizzy]

it actually raises a whole new question for me. Normally a funeral director comes and picks up the bodies, but thats a whole new ball game with potential covid victims. Does anyone know what the process is? because the bodies would need to be isolated.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-guidance-for-care-of-the-deceased/guidance-for-care-of-the-deceased-with-suspected-or-confirmed-coronavirus-covid-19

[arista]

| doubt many people know

how many people die per day, week, month and year in the UK during a regular year and of what

so i cant imagine these people fully understand the figures quoted

(and oh, its the clickbait independent "newspaper")


Yes thats true LT

[user104658]

| doubt many people know

how many people die per day, week, month and year in the UK during a regular year and of what

so i cant imagine these people fully understand the figures quoted

(and oh, its the clickbait independent "newspaper")It's 1500+ per day and a lot of them are elderly people dying of respiratory failure but if that respiratory failure happens to be caused by Covid, its somehow more important. For some reason.

[arista]

are GPs even attending nursing homes or are they signing off on Certs remotely?

Yes One bloke on LBC
had to find out himself from
a Lab in Southampton
as the Government would not confirm
how his relative died in a care home
it was infact Covid 19 that speeded up the old fella's
death

[Denver]

It's just guess work and they would have to do autopsies to be certain rather then just saying it's because of Covid

[Smithy]

'probably from Covid' ?

'could be'

clickbait at its best Smithy

Are you saying that you believe people who die from CoVid have only died in hospital?

Despite the fact I’ve just stated Guernsey figures (albeit much smaller) but still relevant

[Cherie]

Yes due to emergency legislation from March they can sign remotely.

Do you think they are making mistakes, that any death is being signed off as covid related?

Yes how many people think they have Covid and test negative, flu like symptoms, asthmas, pneunomia literally anyone who dies in a care home without testing will be listed as having died with Covid like symptoms

[Cherie]

Are you saying that you believe people who die from CoVid have only died in hospital?

Despite the fact I’ve just stated Guernsey figures (albeit much smaller) but still relevant

No of course people are dying in nursing homes, I had a relative die myself in a nursing home in Ireland, the problem lies in what is written on the death cert Covid like...and actual Covid, if they havent been tested how can it be confirmed .

[user104658]

No of course people are dying in nursing homes, I had a relative die myself in a nursing home in Ireland, the problem lies in what is written on the death Covid like...and actual Covid, if they havent been tested how can it be confirmed .My grandmother-in-law (in her 80's,lots of health conditions and very frail) was in hospital in March, being treated as a Covid patient (pneumonia-like symptoms). She's in and out of hospital quite a lot, has been for years. Thankfully she recovered again and was sent home... Test results eventually came through, Covid negative. If (God forbid) she had died in the hospital, her death would 100% have been recorded as a Covid death. The doctors were convinced she had it.

[Kizzy]

Yes how many people think they have Covid and test negative, flu like symptoms, asthmas, pneunomia literally anyone who dies in a care home without testing will be listed as having died with Covid like symptoms

That's a possibility. . We would have to wait for the yearly average of asthma or pneumonia related deaths to be collated to decide if there has been any misdiagnosed cause of death in these care homes.

[Nicky91]

My grandmother-in-law (in her 80's,lots of health conditions and very frail) was in hospital in March, being treated as a Covid patient (pneumonia-like symptoms). She's in and out of hospital quite a lot, has been for years. Thankfully she recovered again and was sent home... Test results eventually came through, Covid negative. If (God forbid) she had died in the hospital, her death would 100% have been recorded as a Covid death. The doctors were convinced she had it.

good she recovered first of all

but covid + pneumonia are similar, only difference is covid is so many times more aggressive, i personally can understand doctors being convinced it was covid at first

but this is what you get if you don't test enough, and test results come later than when you actually want them

[user104658]

but covid + pneumonia are similar, only difference is covid is so many times more aggressive, i personally can understand doctors being convinced it was covid at first

Again Nicky this is not accurate at all... Covid is mild, a small number of Covid patients develop more dangerous pneumonia-like symptoms. In the elderly, ANY pneumonia is often very bad news.

[Niamh.]

Deleted some posts in here, can people try to stick to the thread topic please?

[bots]

when anyone dies in old age, they usually pick an existing diagnosed issue as the cause, which usually is the most significant of many issues. Without testing and proper diagnosis, it's always a best guess on the certificate

[user104658]

when anyone dies in old age, they usually pick an existing diagnosed issue as the cause, which usually is the most significant of many issues. Without testing and proper diagnosis, it's always a best guess on the certificateThat's often the case really, I believe my mum's official cause of death was pneumonia (as that's what she was taken into hospital for) but the reality was cascading multiple organ failure due to her liver giving up.

[GoldHeart]

18,000 deaths that we know of, just think how many more there is that we don't know about in the UK :facepalm:

[bots]

18,000 deaths that we know of, just think how many more there is that we don't know about in the UK :facepalm:

the 18k figure is the legally required registered figure ... so it will be pretty accurate. Dying home alone with no relatives would be about the only exception

[Trouble1321075]

The devil is in the details of the numbers but at face value i think its fair to conclude that C19 is at least partially responsible for statistical anomalies.

I think saying that X amount of people died last year during the same time period and therefore any difference between that number and the current ones is due to the outbreak is an over simplification.
There are other mitigating factors that need to be included as modifiers to get a more accurate count. If that was not done then the 40k is no more valuable than throwing a dart at a board and picking whatever random number it hit.

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