Facebook poll on the final 5

[Mike0902]

I have always found Facebook to be an extremely reliable guide as to the outcome of reality TV shows and I've no reason to believe this will be any different. It flies in the face of forum polls which seem to be extremely out of touch with people's voting intentions, This is the result of 764 random comments posted after the final 5.was announced.

JORDAN 45%
HENRY 25%
OLIVIA 24%
YINRUN 4%
NOKI 2%

Olivia has become extremely popular and with only 1% between her and Henry she could easily pip him into 2nd place, especially as it's highly likely that people who like both Jordan and Henry might vote for just Jordan because they won't split the vote.

Yinrun and Noki are fighting it out for the bottom 2 places, their support is virtually zero and it's a toss up who is out first, it looks like Noki at the moment.

Jordan to win looks nailed on, something would have to go drastically wrong if he doesn't walk out the winner with either Henry or Olivia in second place.

It beggars belief that Yinrun is second favourite to win with bookmakers, I would be tempted to lay her on the Exchanges but laying out £600 to win just £100 doesn't seem a smart move, best to put it on Jordan at the best price you can get, he's an absolute certainty.

[Christmas Lights]

Facebook is a pile of rubbish, I don't take much notice of that.

[Bronzo]

I think the reality is the vote is a mix between Facebook and Twitter/forums and the vote is in the middle.

Jordan is winning on both which is looking good, I think 2-4 seem very interchangeable

[SoberLikeGizmo]

Facebook is a pile of rubbish, I don't take much notice of that.

Its usually the most accurate from other years

[Merry Mockmas]

The only thing to watch out for with Facebook is that their political bias might be underestimating Yinrun's vote slightly.

I think she'll end up finishing third.

[Cherry Christmas]

I think the reality is the vote is a mix between Facebook and Twitter/forums and the vote is in the middle.

Jordan is winning on both which is looking good, I think 2-4 seem very interchangeable

Jordan will be a boringly predictable winner, put a tenner on Noky and reap that cash :laugh:

[Merry Mockmas]

My guess at what the final placings will be.

1st Place - Olivia (I think that she might get the anti-Jordan/Love Triangle vote at the final two)
2nd Place - Jordan
3rd Place - Yinrun
4th Place - Henry (as the "shock" placing of the night)
5th Place - Noky

[Santa's NaughtiNess]

Anyone but Olivia for me.

[saiwong]

I don't think Facebook or any other online forum can help predict the final as it is only a handful of people (764 randow comments).
So many voters don't engage in these site so their voting pattern is unknown.

So I just recommend people to vote as they please and enjoy the final.

[Santa's NaughtiNess]

I don't think Facebook or any other online forum can help predict the final as it is only a handful of people (764 randow comments).
So many voters don't engage in these site so their voting pattern is unknown.

So I just recommend people to vote as they please and enjoy the final.

But Olivia odds are shortening. Her winning is a real possibility.
I wouldn't be happy with that at all.
But it's up to the public. If they want her to win then she will.
I'm just happy my favourite is in the final.
Anything else is a bonus.

[Mike0902]

Facebook is a pile of rubbish, I don't take much notice of that.

You'll take that back later, what's your opinion then? That is exactly how it's going to turn out I can guarantee it.

[Mike0902]

I think the reality is the vote is a mix between Facebook and Twitter/forums and the vote is in the middle.

Jordan is winning on both which is looking good, I think 2-4 seem very interchangeable

I hate to say it because I like her but Yinrun won't make the top 3 guaranteed.

[Holly Christmas]

You'll take that back later, what's your opinion then? That is exactly how it's going to turn out I can guarantee it.

Don't be silly, you can't guarantee anything.

[Mike0902]

Its usually the most accurate from other years

I can vouch for that between 2013/14 I won £50,000 using Facebook comments. Went 2 years without a losing bet. Bookmakers closed my accounts and had to rely on Betfair Exchange.

[Mike0902]

The only thing to watch out for with Facebook is that their political bias might be underestimating Yinrun's vote slightly.

I think she'll end up finishing third.

Political bias?.I don't see anything political about Facebook comments on reality TV shows, Yinrun won't make the top 3 guaranteed. This is the Henry/Jordan show with Olivia playing the bit part.

[Mike0902]

My guess at what the final placings will be.

1st Place - Olivia (I think that she might get the anti-Jordan/Love Triangle vote at the final two)
2nd Place - Jordan
3rd Place - Yinrun
4th Place - Henry (as the "shock" placing of the night)
5th Place - Noky

Between them Henry and Jordan have about 70% of the vote with Olivia 25% of the vote. Noki and Yinrun are fighting over the remaining 5%.

[Jones]

Yinrun is getting massive support on reddit and discord. I can see her being either the winner or finishing second.

[Jordan.]

Trust facebook to have it completely backwards

[Mike0902]

I don't think Facebook or any other online forum can help predict the final as it is only a handful of people (764 randow comments).
So many voters don't engage in these site so their voting pattern is unknown.

So I just recommend people to vote as they please and enjoy the final.

About 1% of all the votes come from forums, they become very biased and don't represent the voting public in the least. Political pollsters only sample 1,000 people for political polls and that's enough to give them a good snapshot of public opinion. 700+ people is more than enough to predict a reality TV show, especially when it's so clear cut that Jordan is going to win and Yinrun and Noki won't even make the final 3.

[The Human Santapede]

Trust facebook to have it completely backwards

Those Facebook mums are awful. Not even sure why people use FB anymore.

[In the Drunk Tank]

About 1% of all the votes come from forums, they become very biased and don't represent the voting public in the least. Political pollsters only sample 1,000 people for political polls and that's enough to give them a good snapshot of public opinion. 700+ people is more than enough to predict a reality TV show, especially when it's so clear cut that Jordan is going to win and Yinrun and Noki won't even make the final 3.

Bet you that £50,000 you won that Henry doesn't come top 3

[In the Drunk Tank]

Didn't your Facebook poll have Noky out 6th?

[Santa's NaughtiNess]

Facebook mums must love Jordan :laugh:

[Locke.]

Looks very inaccurate to me delete this thread

[The Human Santapede]

Facebook mums must love Jordan :laugh:

Facebook mums also enjoy the market place and casual racism.

[SoberLikeGizmo]

Pretty spot on then

[Merry Mockmas]

You'll take that back later, what's your opinion then? That is exactly how it's going to turn out I can guarantee it.

The only real difference from this poll was Yinrun getting way higher than 4% of the public vote.

But tbf to Facebook they were near enough spot on about everything else.

[Garfie]

Between them Henry and Jordan have about 70% of the vote with Olivia 25% of the vote. Noki and Yinrun are fighting over the remaining 5%.

Just had to say credit to you, Mike. Your predictions were so right, despite it being unexpected by many and a shock for many others. Yinrun coming 4th was the biggest surprise for me, but you predicted it. You know your stuff!

[Santa's NaughtiNess]

I have always found Facebook to be an extremely reliable guide as to the outcome of reality TV shows and I've no reason to believe this will be any different. It flies in the face of forum polls which seem to be extremely out of touch with people's voting intentions, This is the result of 764 random comments posted after the final 5.was announced.

JORDAN 45%
HENRY 25%
OLIVIA 24%
YINRUN 4%
NOKI 2%

Olivia has become extremely popular and with only 1% between her and Henry she could easily pip him into 2nd place, especially as it's highly likely that people who like both Jordan and Henry might vote for just Jordan because they won't split the vote.

Yinrun and Noki are fighting it out for the bottom 2 places, their support is virtually zero and it's a toss up who is out first, it looks like Noki at the moment.

Jordan to win looks nailed on, something would have to go drastically wrong if he doesn't walk out the winner with either Henry or Olivia in second place.

It beggars belief that Yinrun is second favourite to win with bookmakers, I would be tempted to lay her on the Exchanges but laying out £600 to win just £100 doesn't seem a smart move, best to put it on Jordan at the best price you can get, he's an absolute certainty.
They almost got it right. They did say Olivia and Henry were very close.