Do you trust betting odds?

[DrunkerThanMoses]

They have Angel favourite to go tonight? But after Celeb Big Brother, with Wats her name was 4th favourite, and then ended up winning it, somehow? Do you trust bettting odds? They have been right the last two weeks?

[Ketman]

Betting odds are essentially determined by the punters, not the bookies. And the punters know no more than you or me. But they wouldn't risk their money without checking the polls on forums like this. So you'll find the odds won't be much different from what the TIBB poll, for instance, suggests they should be. So it's a fair certainty that Angel is going.

[Appearance_Of_A_Junky]

For the Overall winner, I don't trust the odds, but thats more down to the length of time left and we all know that housemates can very quickly change.

For the eviction I would have more faith in them, the odds are changed by the amount of money on a housemate. Yet, on Wednesday night Angel was 1/10 down to 1/25.

She should be gone, they might get it wrong, but not when the odds are 1/25 and 10/1. It can't be that close. The bookies will get it wrong when its close from time to time, but not on this one.

Ladbrokes have her as 1/150 now!

[Appearance_Of_A_Junky]

Originally posted by Ketman
Betting odds are essentially determined by the punters, not the bookies. And the punters know no more than you or me. But they wouldn't risk their money without checking the polls on forums like this. So you'll find the odds won't be much different from what the TIBB poll, for instance, suggests they should be. So it's a fair certainty that Angel is going.

Well obviously apart from the fact that the TiBB poll is likely to be a smaller sample.

The bookies still set the odds in the first place, but thats why there was so much drift for Angel on wednesday. I can't see any result other than Angel.

[Ketman]

They set provisional odds in the first place, yes. But those would also be based on the only sources of public opinion available, i.e. polls on forums and tabloids. But as soon as the money starts coming in, the odds become self-adjusting, reflecting the opinion of the punters, not the opinion of the bookies.

[*mazedsalv**]

I dont trust it at all anymore, in the last 2 and a half years straight, the bookies fave has never won apart from Ray in DOI.

Also Steph's eviction did it for me, never trust it anymore.

[Appearance_Of_A_Junky]

Originally posted by Ketman
They set provisional odds in the first place, yes. But those would also be based on the only sources of public opinion available, i.e. polls on forums and tabloids. But as soon as the money starts coming in, the odds become self-adjusting, reflecting the opinion of the punters, not the opinion of the bookies.

Im sure in a previous year that one of the bookies was on BBLB and they said they have people watching BB all the time.

How nice a summer job would that be!

[Ketman]

Originally posted by *mazedsalv**
I dont trust it at all anymore, in the last 2 and a half years straight, the bookies fave has never won apart from Ray in DOI.

Also Steph's eviction did it for me, never trust it anymore.

Last year there was quite a gap between the polls and the punters. In the closing stages Mikey was favourite with the punters, though not by much. But the opinion polls had Rachel well ahead. The final result had her winning by quite a small margin, well down on what the polls suggested. So both polls and punters were wrong.