the way the infection rate is rising at the moment, we will hit 100k per day by the end of January unless there is a severe lockdown. With a 100k a day rate, its not going to take much time until we reach saturation of those likely to get infected and the numbers are going to just drop on their own. I have a feeling this is the strategy Boris will follow. That then gives breathing space until it all kicks off again in the autumn

No

Big Fears the Oxford Vaccine can not stop
the New South African Varient Covid.



Blood tests in the Oxford Lab
being done now.


But Travel from South Africa has not been stopped?

This is getting too much now.

Why are countries not shutting their borders with South Africa? If we can't vaccinate their variant then we (the rest of us) shouldn't be allowing them into our countries.

they are all tested and quarantined ... thats all that is required

Apparently that was the case with the Italians and the Chinese that came into all of our countries and look at us now.

This was always the gamble of the traditional viral-vector vaccines (Oxford, Russian etc.) vs the newer, more expensive mRNA vaccines (Pfizer, Moderna). They are less likely to be as effective on new strains. They're likely to still be somewhat effective but might be a lower percentage (and thus no herd immunity).

HOWEVER even if they are still effective just in limiting severity, that's the biggest concern. If it still runs through the population but non-mild cases are extremely rare, then that's half the battle.

I just heard that last bit on LBC !!

This is pure madness ... they knew about the SA variant 10 to 14 days ago .. I presumed they’d stopped all flights from SA at that time !!!!


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So OUR Oxford vaccine is likely to be one of the vaccines that will NOT be so effective against the SA variant ?


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#]

This is dated 24/12

BRITAIN has issued a ban on all travel from South Africa to halt the spread of a new, more infectious strain of coronavirus.

The Department of Transport last night confirmed that all passengers travelling from South Africa to England from 9am this morning would not be permitted to enter the country.

the testing has only started on the new strain, no-one can possibly know yet whether it will be less effective or not. It's not a binary switch with these things. So, yes, it's another complexity, but its not all doom and gloom either. The media thrive on stuff like this and honestly, they have no idea what they are talking about

LBC presenter was just going mad after learning that flights coming from SA hadn’t stopped .. hopefully she has been misinformed and flights in had creased


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Indeed, it's currently just a "we don't know because we haven't tested", not "we don't think it'll work".

However, broadly speaking, these new mRNA vector vaccines have a greater likelihood of still being highly effective against multiple strains than the "more traditional" viral vector vaccines, because they direct antibodies to a specific feature of the virus (and thus in theory to any virus with that feature) rather than directing them to the virus "as a whole".

With the latter it's less a case of "antibodies will attack if it still has that specific feature" and more a case of "antibodies will attack if it still looks more or less like the same virus".

The benefit of the former over the latter is that the part of the virus these vaccines recognise and attack is essential to viral reproduction (i.e. if that feature mutates out, that strain is unlikely to be able to spread anyway). With viral vector the virus could (in theory) mutate in other ways to look different enough to not be recognised by the vaccine-created antibodies whilst STILL HAVING the feature that lets it spread.

tl;dr whether or not Oxford still works depends on how different the strain looks overall. Whether or not the mRNA vaccines still work depends on the strain having a specific feature - and in theory, it NEEDS that feature.

The other consideration is %age of effectiveness. The faster a virus can spread, the larger the proportion of population higher efficacy is needed in the vaccine to be effective for herd immunity, so if the Oxford one is indeed lower...

who are the creators of the Oxford vaccine anyway?

I'm not sure if you're being sarcastic Nicky? :joker:

... Oxford University ... in partnership with AstraZeneca (UK/Swedish BioPharma company)

...yeah, the media do tend to thrive on things like this...but equally I think it’s misleading when we’re told that ‘there is no reason to think the vaccines won’t be effective’..when the new variant was only known about for hours...

I don't think that's misleading really - there is no specific reason to think they won't work (it's actually more likely that they will work). We just can't say FOR SURE that they will work or be as effective, because there is no test data to base that claim on.

...Nicky..:love:...making sure those facts are fact proven for us again and again...

...the situation is that it’s being tested atm so until those assessments have been made, it’s all unnecessary information, I feel...because if it actually wasn’t effective on the variant, then it absolutely would have been misleading in its ‘knee jerk reassurances’...

There are quite a number of vaccines in progress for instance Imperial, so who knows where we will be vaccine wise in a a few months time

That's good news.

any incoming travel here in Netherlands must be thoroughly screened, tested, quarantined and people can only enter upon ''negative tests only'' so no questionable cases either (who first got positive test, then negative test)

but there is a negative travel advice anyways, with the code orange


shame certain dutch people still have to go to germany, sneak into there to shop :rolleyes: many cases in german towns have come from that

That was dated 24/12 ...

Is this still in force though as LBC radio suggested otherwise earlier today


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I'm not a cynic. ... as you know....

But does anyone else think that this is why they postponed the 2nd Pfizer jabs for the vulnerable?

If they are proven the more effective of the 2, then they are going to be in greater demand.
I really can't see any other reason that makes any sense to have cancelled appointments for it.

On a serious note ... now I’m not certain which vaccines they are producing BUT I just heard someone on LBC report that India have tonight put a total ban on exporting vaccines produced in their country ..

This may or not be disastrous for the uk I really can’t say but it doesn’t sound like a good development ..


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