Reform might be about to wipe out the Tories

The Conservative party would have been lucky to have had a 1997-style wipeout. This result may prove terminal



Prof Sir John Curtice writes:

The overnight election results have been every bit as disappointing for the Conservatives as they might have feared.

The party is so far losing one in two of the seats they have been trying to defend. When all the results are in, it is at risk of suffering the catastrophic 500 losses of council seats that some analysts had predicted.

The party’s vote fell by 32.1 points in Blackpool South, making it the party’s third worst ever performance in a parliamentary by-election. With 16.9 per cent of the vote, its best performance yet, Reform appears to have done much of the damage.

Moreover, in the local elections the Conservative vote fell most heavily in those wards where Reform fielded a candidate. The only silver lining for Tory HQ was that Reform only contested one in six of the wards where there was an election on Thursday. A full slate would have been even more devastating.

Meanwhile, some of the evidence underneath the bonnet of the headlines will particularly worry the party.

First, detailed ward by ward results collected by the BBC suggest that on average support for the party is down on last year’s local elections. That slippage is consistent with the message of the opinion polls that, rather than closing the gap on Labour, the party has actually lost ground over the last twelve months.

Second, the fall in Conservative support is proving to be highest in the party’s heartlands. The better the Conservatives did locally in 2021, that is, when most of the seats being contested on Thursday were last fought, the greater the fall in their support now.

This pattern fits with the evidence of recent MRP polling, which suggested the Conservatives could win even fewer seats in the general election than the 165 to which they fell in 1997.

Third, Labour advanced most strongly by squeezing the Liberal Democrat vote in wards where the Tories were trying to fend off a Labour challenge.

If these patterns persist, it could cost the party dearly in the general election.

Downing St will be hoping for better news today, not least in Tees Valley where polls have suggested Ben Houchen could hang on to the post of Mayor. But on the evidence so far, possible isolated successes should not distract from the broader message of the local ballot boxes – the Conservative party is still in a very deep electoral hole.


https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/202...r-rishi-sunak/

Labour have given in.

LBC said

arista what on earth are you on about.

It is a NOC control now.
Which means it needs 2 parties in coalition or the major one with support to run it.

It doesn't mean Labour will have to bow down and do all what others say.
They'll need to make concessions but it will still be Labour dominated.

Just as the councils where the Cons have lost their majority in.

Oh yes, Ben Houchen .

He has been a really good Mayor for Teesside I agree.

There'll be a big swing to Labour but I'm glad he is near certain to hold it.
Equally too Andy Street in the West Midlands actually.

I like Ben Houchen.
He deserves to not suffer from his Party's errors and lack of popularity.

if the UK follows the way the USA is going, reform is basically the equivalent of maga, so it could be a major threat.

Reform becoming strong is probably one of the few things that would get me out voting, to make sure they don't get in

Good no more Green MP now

https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2024/05...leryImage_.JPG

Conservative
Ben Houchen Still the Good Mayor


Official now


He was just on SkyNewsHD

Yes. So pleased about this, he has really served us well so far.

A glimmer of hope for Sunak

Labor in the lead. Brilliant news!

Conservatives have to go. It's time for labour to come back in government!

Sure many months to go,
for the UK General Election

Labour Lady becomes New North East Mayor.

Beating the for Former Labour Mayor good fella, Jamie Driscoll
he came 2nd running as an independent mayor.

[Kim McGuinness New Labour North East Mayor

total votes 185,051
share 41.3%]


[Independent, Jamie Driscoll

total votes 126,652
share 28.2%]


Data : BBC

Still over 50 Votes still to come


LibDems think they will win some?

Later today

PM Sunak with Ben Houchen Mayor

at the Airport
that only Ben kept open.


Live on TV News


Labour wanted to take that Mayor.
They Failed

Starmer said they would take Harlow?

Conservative Hold Harlow

Conservatives Hold Fareham

Conservatives Hold Broxbourne

Conservatives Hold Lincolnshire


Conservative Hold Walsall



Conservatives Lost Baslidon to NOC

Former Army Capt. Took his Army ID
to vote, they said after going through 20 pages
they said no.

He was just, Live on LBC.

He had to then go to work
did not have time
to go home to get another ID.


An angry Older caller
went without I.D.

He said he was on their list.

LBC presenter fella
said do you know you can get a free ID card
downloaded.

Angry fella said he did not have a Computer.

The council should help him

One Old Lady took her Photo Costco Card

she was refused
She Ripped up her Voter Form.

Another Older Lady
with No Computer


LBC Live

I can't vote. If I could I would definitely vote labour.

Why not?

I assume an Italian passport

Yes, I have an Italian passport. I can only vote for Italian elections.

Fair Play to you
it's great you are honest in backing Labour

SkyNews has done an Early Projection
for House of Commons

Labour +93 Total 294 Seats
Conservative -130 Total 242 Seats
LibDem +30 Total 38 Seats
Others +7 Total 66 Seats


Which means Labour are short of 32 seats
Making it a Hung Parliament


So Labour has more hard work to do
like Oldham

I don't think labour have the lead that they think they have, and once the election is announced, all bets are off

Good point.

Many are saying just that.

I hope they win

Labour think Andy Street Conservative Mayor
could win tomorrow

Ref: Andy Bell on Ch5HDnews
in Westminster

No wins for LibDems?


although some zones are still to come in.

Massive kick in the teeth for Labour. They should have won by a landslide. Starmer needs to go if they want to win by a majority...he is useless imo.

We should find out tomorrow

https://pbs.twimg.com/card_img/17855...jpg&name=small

Absolutely. People do not like Starmer. Surely Labour can see this?

did you notice he now DOES know that women don't have penises now that we are in election time and that the tide is now turning on that nonsense?

what a piece of work he is

untrustworthy

Cold War Steve
Remix Art.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GMpa8guX...jpg&name=small