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-   -   Big Brother 2024 Betting Odds Thread [ALI CLEAR FAVE TO WIN] (https://www.thisisbigbrother.com/forums/showthread.php?t=392919)

OnTheRight 13-11-2024 08:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zizu (Post 11571164)
Bookies normally do though or certainly very close - thats why they are all wealthy and the gambling addicts broke


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Plenty of Bookies have gone bankrupt.
And Bookies do not want the favourite to win.

Zizu 13-11-2024 08:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by OnTheRight (Post 11571208)
Plenty of Bookies have gone bankrupt.
And Bookies do not want the favourite to win.


Who said anything about Bookies wanting favourites to win ?

They simply calculate the odds accordingly


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OnTheRight 13-11-2024 08:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zizu (Post 11571222)
Who said anything about Bookies wanting favourites to win ?

They simply calculate the odds accordingly


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They always want the fav to lose. There will be massive liabilities on the fav.

Crimson Dynamo 13-11-2024 08:46 PM

An Ali win would be so bad for BB

Zizu 13-11-2024 08:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Crimson Dynamo (Post 11571241)
An Ali win would be so bad for BB


…. and in the real world …


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moon_peach 13-11-2024 10:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GoldHeart (Post 11571028)
Can it really change much in 2 days though

Sometimes it can. Just checked now and on oddschecker Ali’s at around 73% odds and Marcello 18%, so the gap has widened after that ep (which I haven’t seen yet so idk why.) If Ali’s odds stay that high and she doesn’t win then they’ll have really gotten it wrong!

GoldHeart 13-11-2024 10:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by moon_peach (Post 11571372)
Sometimes it can. Just checked now and on oddschecker Ali’s at around 73% odds and Marcello 18%, so the gap has widened after that ep (which I haven’t seen yet so idk why.) If Ali’s odds stay that high and she doesn’t win then they’ll have really gotten it wrong!

That's my point, Ali is winning no matter what.

Painfully predictable,and a horrible result:bored:.

Bronzo 13-11-2024 10:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Benjamin (Post 11571014)
Based on current odds here the % chance of likely to win:

Ali - 65.20%
Marcello - 20%
Emma - 7.7%
Hanah - 7.7%
Nathan - 2.9%
Segun - 2%

Helen winning at 13.3% and even Luke at just over 20, shows it’s not a complete dead cert. It’s when some Cody reaches 70+% they become a dead cert imo.

joeysteele 13-11-2024 11:02 PM

The thing that's different now though is you only get 5 votes at a time
That removes the high level of extra phone voting there was before.
When you could hammer your phones endlessly voting for someone or against someone too.

This app voting limits the amount of votes cast now.
Plus the opportunity to target even probably.

eternal 14-11-2024 12:22 AM

I'd be happy with Hanah, Marcello or Emma winning it. I wouldn't mind Nathan either as he has been entertaining but his showmance and nastiness at times has brought him down.

Segun and Ali should be nowhere near it. Neither have brought any humour or entertainment to the house. Segun is a nice guy but spineless and Ali is straight up awful.

Benjamin 14-11-2024 01:09 AM

To win

Ali - 4/11
Marcello - 9/2
Emma - 9/1
Hanah 12/1
Nathan - 28/1
Segun - 40/1


bots 14-11-2024 03:56 AM

that order shows nathan and segun with the lowest votes which ties in with them being bottom 4 in the vault :laugh:

GoldHeart 14-11-2024 04:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bots (Post 11571441)
that order shows nathan and segun with the lowest votes which ties in with them being bottom 4 in the vault :laugh:

I suspected that, but then I'm kept thinking Nathan was higher up.

Zizu 14-11-2024 04:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Benjamin (Post 11571425)
To win

Ali - 4/11
Marcello - 9/2
Emma - 9/1
Hanah 12/1
Nathan - 28/1
Segun - 40/1



For anyone unsure …

You have to pay £11 in order to possibly win £4 - betting on Ali


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Benjamin 14-11-2024 07:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bots (Post 11571441)
that order shows nathan and segun with the lowest votes which ties in with them being bottom 4 in the vault :laugh:

No you can’t use the odds for the finishing order. They rarely reflect that.

Benjamin 14-11-2024 08:38 AM

To win

Ali - 4/9
Marcello - 9/2
Emma - 10/1
Hanah 14/1
Nathan - 28/1
Segun - 50/1


moon_peach 14-11-2024 08:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Benjamin (Post 11571613)
To win

Ali - 4/9
Marcello - 9/2
Emma - 10/1
Hanah 14/1
Nathan - 28/1
Segun - 50/1


Can I ask Benjamin, is there any one bookies that tends to be more accurate than the others? I know they all seem to offer slightly different odds

Benjamin 14-11-2024 08:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by moon_peach (Post 11571616)
Can I ask Benjamin, is there any one bookies that tends to be more accurate than the others? I know they all seem to offer slightly different odds

Not really. They tend to all have very similar odds.

Zizu 14-11-2024 08:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by moon_peach (Post 11571616)
Can I ask Benjamin, is there any one bookies that tends to be more accurate than the others? I know they all seem to offer slightly different odds


Slight tangent but I think OddsChecker assimilates ALL the other bookies’s odds together to give an overall view on things


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Benjamin 14-11-2024 08:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zizu (Post 11571624)
Slight tangent but I think OddsChecker assimilates ALL the other bookies’s odds together to give an overall view on things


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Correct. It will show you all the bookies odds for a housemate if you expand it. Odds checker will show you the one which will give you the best return out of all of them unless you expand it.

moon_peach 14-11-2024 10:09 AM

Oh thank you both, I didn’t realise that! I’ve been mostly focusing on oddschecker, so good to know that’s probably the best way to do it

bots 14-11-2024 10:21 AM

All we can really take from the odds are that Nathan and Segun are unlikely to win. All the rest of them reflect the money placed on them, which in a system consisting of limited free votes, points to corresponding likely outcomes. It's not possible these days to swamp vote for one house mate, so the odds are far more likely to reflect reality than they did when you had to pay to vote

Locke. 14-11-2024 11:44 AM

10/1 for Ali to win and Hanah to come 2nd is generous

https://sports.williamhill.com/betti...ther/outrights

GoldHeart 14-11-2024 03:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Benjamin (Post 11571613)
To win

Ali - 4/9
Marcello - 9/2
Emma - 10/1
Hanah 14/1
Nathan - 28/1
Segun - 50/1



See it's changed again, except for Ali of course.

BBXX 14-11-2024 04:03 PM

I've put a bet on Marcello to soften the blow by £35 if he wins. :laugh:


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