Originally Posted by Toy Santa (Post 11125681)

Identifying trends and using those trends to form a hypothesis is not the same thing as drawing conclusions - and therein lies the problem. An optimistic hypothesis is fine if it makes people feel better but drawing a conclusion from not enough data is bad science and just a bad idea generally.

Also observed correlation without control variables (as mass public data always is) does not imply causation. In other words, we have no idea if the lower death and hospitalisation figures are because “omicron is milder” or because of some other variable, such as a shift in infection demographic, effect of vaccination, old/vulnerable having previous natural immunity (or already being dead from it) etc.

People are using it to declare that Omicron is mild. We do not know that.

You can look at the lower deaths and say “phew, that’s good, hopefully something has changed that means things won’t be as bad as thought”.

You cannot look at it and say “Omg Omicron is clearly mild whup tee too Covid is just a cold now quick everyone, get back out there and snog!”

Not until there is real, robust, variable-controlled clinical data that actually shows the variant to be milder. Not until we’re well past the peak of infections and know how high that number will go.

It may be the case. I’ve never said otherwise. I’ve said there isn’t enough data to go on and there won’t be for probably another month or so. That is the simple fact. I know that people wish it wasn’t and want to believe that optimistic observations and predictions are facts. I know why. But I think it’s risky thinking - and certainly not thinking to base actual policy decisions on, as people seem to want to happen.

I think the phrase people need to keep in mind is “cautious optimism”. But maybe that’s a bit too “middle ground” for 2021, I know people are keen to throw their eggs into a basket.

Originally Posted by arista (Post 11125693)

LBC reports
40% of booked Covid appointments
are being wasted, as they do not turn up.

That's real bad.

Originally Posted by arista (Post 11125693)

LBC reports
40% of booked Covid appointments
are being wasted, as they do not turn up.

That's real bad.

Originally Posted by MeghansLetterToSanta (Post 11125703)

More from Professor Peter Openshaw, who says someone only needs to be exposed to "a whiff of infected breath" to catch the highly transmissible Omicron variant of coronavirus.

"Omicron is so infectious. We're lucky really that it wasn't this infectious when it first moved into human-to-human transmission," he told BBC Breakfast.

"We've had several iterations of this virus going through different stages of its evolution.

"It has ended up being so infectious that it almost needs just a whiff of infected breath and you could get infected."

----------------------------------------

if that's not alarmist, what is?

Originally Posted by arista (Post 11125704)

Paris is now Outside all must by law
have a Mask on.

Originally Posted by arista (Post 11125697)

Originally Posted by MeghansLetterToSanta (Post 11125706)

the latest data coming out of America is that anything less than kn95 face masks are completely useless

Originally Posted by thesheriff443 (Post 11125692)

A year or so ago you was working in a betting shop no you are head of the world health organisation

Intelligent people are not jumping the gun

Originally Posted by All The Jingle Ladies (Post 11125715)

40% of vaccine appointments are no-shows

Talkradio

Originally Posted by All The Jingle Ladies (Post 11125715)

40% of vaccine appointments are no-shows

Talkradio

Originally Posted by All The Jingle Ladies (Post 11125715)

40% of vaccine appointments are no-shows

Talkradio

Originally Posted by Toy Santa (Post 11125714)

Two and a half years ago, and since then I've finished my degree and my wife has gained a research Masters.

Not everyone stagnates in life sheriff.

Also, if you'd care to actually read my posts, all I'm stating is that we do NOT know the full picture. I'm not claiming expertise, saying that I know anything specific, or drawing conclusions. I'm saying that other people are too keen to draw conclusions. So it's actually pretty much the exact opposite of what you're saying. I'm freely admitting that "I don't know" - I'm just pointing out that no one else on this thread knows anything either, but I'm seeing an awful lot of bold claims about Omicron and how it's going to go, based on absolutely nothing at all.

Because...

We do not have enough data yet.

Less than two months of data, less than half way into a situation, with no measurable peak, is not enough data. It's not complicated, it's really simple.

"We don't know anything yet, stop pretending that we do"

That's it, that's all. I could have made that statement whatever job I was doing so really the pointed comments are needless, but telling. Again I understand that people are tired, scared and frustrated and desperately want to glimpse the light at the end of the tunnel... but lighting a match in front of your face and saying "oh look there it is!" is just nonsense.

Originally Posted by MeghansLetterToSanta (Post 11125719)

that figure could easily be people isolating .... take a look at the infection rate and the absences from work

Originally Posted by All The Jingle Ladies (Post 11125727)

but surely they would call and rebook?

Originally Posted by thesheriff443 (Post 11125723)

I will say it once again, intelligent people are not jumping the gun