Britain on the verge of another recession
 

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Britain is now one step away from a recession.

The economy shrank in the second quarter of the year and since a technical recession is defined as two successive quarters of contraction, that means another similar three months of growth between now and the end of September would tip the UK into its first recession since the financial crisis.

Many economists expected a weak quarter of growth in Q2. Indeed, the average forecast was for a flatlining of 0%.

They knew that there was lots of stockpiling in the first quarter as companies prepared themselves for the first Brexit deadline; they knew after such moments the economy often contracts; they knew too that many factories had timetabled shutdowns for after that March deadline.

They knew it would be weak, but not this weak.

So why did the economy fare worse than those expectations?

In large, part of it is because each part of the economy fared worse than those expectations.

Not only did the manufacturing sector contract, it contracted at the fastest rate since the deep 2009 recession.

Moreover, the services sector, which provides around 80% of the growth in the economy, grew at a far slower rate than usual - the weakest rate in three years.

So this was a perfect storm - all parts of the UK economy slowing or contracting in unison.

However, there was one bright spot.

Despite the slowdown in spending and activity among businesses, household spending remains relatively robust, with growth around the same as in the first quarter.

Businesses may be battening down the hatches ahead of Brexit, but households are not.

Still, there is no reason to fear that the UK is inevitably heading towards a recession.

At present most economists expect an expansion in the third quarter of the year - perhaps around 0.3%.

That said, much depends now on the state of business confidence between now and the next Brexit deadline.

The final irony? We will not know for sure whether the UK is in recession until after that deadline has passed.

Sky News

Still, there is no reason to fear that the UK is inevitably heading towards a recession.


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Of course it is... but the Tories are ace and brexit will be phenomenal!
Pfffft!
I'm stockpiling ramen.

Fairly sure its inevitable we will have a recession with all the Brexit crap. Surely this will not shock anyone?!

That's the least of our worries.

Brexit just keeps on giving

Italy already is one
And Germany will be next

So c'mon Boris, help out businesses! Slash all rates negatively affecting businesses, and give them tax incentives :)

...sadly some businesses, especially smaller ones...would not survive a recession...the pic in your OP, Dia...is so familiar of town landscapes in the U.K. atm...so many closures and empty premises...:sad:...I do often wonder what town and city landscapes will look like for our next generation...

Yeah it's such a sad sight seeing all the closed stores and downtrodden streets in towns that were once bustling, I genuinely dont think those towns will ever be the way they were in the past.

The thing is though (obviously I'm not sure if it's the same everywhere) but the council's future plans for town centres and high streets sadly don't include any stores and businesses, our council revealed plans and images for some of the town centres a while back and they apparently want them to be community 'hubs' with health centres, seating areas, social housing and possibly a few boutiques. Nothing like any of the town centres I've ever known.

isn't that more to do with our penchant for internet shopping though than recession, we are not currently in recession and haven't been for years so the way the high street looks now can't be blamed on Brexit for a change!

Oh yeah I would say its partly that and party the councils to blame, I wasnt suggesting Brexit was the cause of downfall of town centres.

the rich stay rich, and the poor will be even more poor

yep brexit was so good for UK, no more trade deals with rest of europe is so good for UK


so far you guys had already lost the EMA (european medical agency) FDA (food, drug, administration) offices due to brexit

and now being on the verge of another recession


EU did try to persuade you guys into leaving with a deal, or remaining in EU but so much divide in the country, and some people who saw that as ''scare tactics''


but what i try to say, UK loses more with a brexit than they gain

our local shopping centre has had a complete revamp, it was dying on its legs especially as since Westfield in Stratford was built, they have free play areas for kids, street food vans and live music and the place is heaving now even during the week, they need to bring the footfall now via other means, as shops themselves are not enough to attract customers any more

Yeah that sounds as if it's worked out well for that town then but not all councils are interested in revamping or taking the time to stop the centres from becoming abandoned, ours certainly isnt.

Yes our high street has been dying for years but they do try to keep it going,we have a new industrial estate going up just on the outskirts so that hasn't helped,this was way before Brexit, so don't think you can fully blame that,a lot of it is online shopping etc, we don't have that many closed shops,but some just don't seem to stay long.

Funding is a big issue, many councils were cut to the bone while others were given an increase, that will of course make a difference as to where and how funds get allocated.

Yep true.

There are some though that just couldn't care less about town centres, communities etc.

The public toilet near one of our town centres had been used by a homeless person that left it in a mess, it should been cleaned and reopened, the council though decided to demolish it instead? Now there isnt any public toilets at all.

...a lot of our town empty retail premises are now being converted into flats...but with many the progression of those is an on/off thing as well...often halted for long periods of time...I don’t know if that’s a funding issue or another reason...?..but the pull of living in a town centre must surely be less with less facilities there...

Probably because atm our tax payments go to the eu and other countries...like Greece, Spain Italy and german...no more thank God. ..let them get on wit it themselves.

China and America drive all growth throughout the world and as China and America are in the middle of a trade war ... guess who suffers

The situation isn't helped by brexit uncertainty, but political uncertainty is even worse and our politicians have been dire

This is because the councils attitude is, basically, "plenty of shops and all of the supermarkets have toilets so people can just use those". Because then the businesses are responsible for cleaning and maintenance and they can completely cut that from their budget. But then you get things like the Subway in my nearest town centre who have been telling people that the toilet is "out of order" for something like 7 years.

no since when you guys were in EU, you'd still have trade deals with europe

i'd say you guys will struggle more now, no good access to medicine anymore since EMA no longer having a office in UK

also certain foods no longer being available in stores in UK, no more flowers import from my country

That definitely sums up the attitude of our council.

I'm actually laughing because the toilet in our subway has been out of order for years too [emoji23]

It'll probably be company policy! Legally I think anywhere that offers "sitting in" eating is meant to have toilet facilities but they probably tell them that if they have a problem with lots of non-customers using them, to just keep them locked and say they're broken.

I mean on one hand, I get it, as the toilets at my old workplace were left in an unspeakable state a few times over the years I was there. Like needles in the toilet cistern, soiled underwear left balled up in the corner... Once, a sink was full of **** with hand prints smeared up the walls. It was so bad we had to call in an industrial cleaning team [emoji38]