how many seats will ukip win?
 

theres vast enormous under current of support for farage
the vast majority agree with him but are too scared to admit it in public , but will admit it in private.
this is a legacy of pc Britain under new labour where conversations were outlawed and free speech destroyed as our civil rights were destroyed
we ended up with child benefits being sent to india and Romania, to 60% of hiv patients being from abroad, to net immigration of over 300,000 a year

this support is enormous, you ask people one to one in private its incredible how much support there is for farage BUT lots speak of their fear for some lunatics he may have behind him

Less than people think

Did think about 15 a month or two ago, now I'd only say about 7.

yeah less than 10 i think

4-9 imo, between that range

More than 5 and I'll be amazed. IMO their election hopes are looking pretty unstable, you'd think their best hopes are the two Tory defectors and Farage. Carswell should be fine of the Tory defectors but seems like he could be less sure of his decision than he was, and Reckless' hold on his seat isn't that strong. Even Farage looks like he could be in danger of not winning his seat and tbh Ukip lack many other politicians of any decent standing. I'll say that they win 3

From my experience it's the right wing politics that's more “PC” than the left, just go back to my thread about Perez being Jesus Christ.

But onto the topic I think that Farage will win the Looney Party about 8 to 10 extra seats.

I would estimate 2 or 3 seats

I'm hoping it's going to be similar to how the Lib Dems did last general election when there was loads of seats expected for them to win and they did awfully.

what complete nonsense , no offence, but labour and new labour especially virtually invented PC and destroyed free speech

They both don't allow free speech on different things, I do personally however think that the extreme right wing parties like UKIP and BNP like to be allowed to say their opinion, but not allow the opposition to say that it's wrong in their opinion, I have not seen a left wing person do that quite as much as I have seen the right do it.

nigel farage and his party will shock alot of people, just how far they will go in the polls, on may, lib dems are finished, they had 1st place or second place, close to their fingers, in 2010, but they made a cock up big time. I think ukip will have nearly 2 milliom votes in their pocket.

Not many. UKIP are relying on peoples naivety. The majority will never vote for political fools.

You make a fair point, UKIP believe in free speech and democracy,when it suits them ,not when it can work against them.
They for instance don't want 16 and 17 year olds to have a vote in any in/out referendum on the EU,that is because it is perceived that the younger sections of society are more likely in favour of being in the EU.
UKIP also doesn't want anyone, not of British origin who is working here, living here and that have even been here for ages and who are registered to vote in elections,to also not have a vote in an in/ out referendum.
So rights as to democracy and free speech seem to be likely only going to be allowed if it falls in the more agreement section with UKIP.

Anyway to the question, I think UKIP will have a minimum 2 seats, probably 5 and no more than 7.
They would need Labour and the Conservatives to be down to around 31% each and for them to be on around 22% to even get to that.
I don't see that happening myself.

:joker::joker::joker: Oh really? How do we account for; Neville Chamberlain, Edward Heath, John Major, Tony Blair?

They all promised something that enough of the people wanted. Votes gathered on a false promise is something we all know about.

Whilst I can appreciate that UKIP are like a cat amongst the pigeons, their politics are weak and wishy-washy.

I'm not sure they'll win that many seats; a few maybe. But what they are going to do is split the vote and affect the outcome of the election.

Not many, because this statement:

...is absolute nonsense.

I pray they win as many as possible and are asked to help form a coalition Govt.

A Conservative / UKIP coailition would be an absolute nightmare. Even the Tories wouldn't want to go for it, because realistically, the Tories don't want to leave the EU. They just shy away from outright stating that it should never happen. The reason for this, is that the Conservatives do actually understand that leaving the EU - whilst a popular idea with naive xenophobes - is actually economically ****ing retarded.

Whilst I agree with everything you say, a Conservative/UKIP coalition would be a sure way of killing UKIP off for good.

Well, it worked for the Lib Dems!

:joker::joker::joker: In your extremely poorly informed opinion. My opinion is the exact opposite.

I would be willing to wager that none of you pro EU stalwarts are even conversant with the real facts about the EU - from its Nazi origins to its current day corrupt and sinister covert agenda.

I posted a photo 8 posts back hoping that someone would comment or query it, but to no avail.

Do you know its relevancy here?

And any of this is relevant to the economic impact of leaving the EU? It doesn't matter if it was founded by and is still operated by goat slaughtering Satan worshippers... Leaving it would cause untold economic damage, and the only reason the Tories even entertain the idea of an in/out referendum is to appease people who have no comprehension of that.

The reason UKIP wants out of Europe is because it's full of idiots and racists who would blame stubbing their toe on the shoddy workmanship of a Polish joiner if they could find a link.

UKIP are nothing more than the monday club 2.0 they hope to grab enough seats to form a coalition with the tories.
If they dont manage to do it then Farage and the whole carnival will be toast.
The Kippers are nothing more than Elm tree guest house buddys scum of the political world.

Well it is relevant, but let's leave that aside then for now (even though other posts have veered outside the strict parameters of the topic) and let's continue this as a civil and structured debate.

Can you post corroborating reasons for your statement that: "Leaving it (the EU)would cause untold economic damage"?

Even were they not to win many seats this time, they will increasingly win more seats as the other two parties are increasingly found NOT to be able to address the very real concerns of the British public concerning the EU and unfettered immigration.

Interestingly, only one party is offering an in/out referendum on Europe, allowing the public to decide our future in the EU and that party is not UKIP. The Tories are slowly waking up to the fact that we have finite resources and hundreds of thousands of incomers every year puts an unbearable strain on our infrastructure.

I personally want out of Europe. For a long time I hadn't formed an opinion but now having satisfied myself on the question I have come out against the EU. As I said on another thread, we do more business with the US than we do with the EU and we have a whole Commonwealth that's not being used in a way beneficial to everyone because we're spending all out time trying to fit into Europe... which we don't. Sadly I believe that UKIP has gained strength because of the fact that no one is allowed to have an adult discussion about immigration because they get labelled racists and xenophobes. UKIP started the conversation and people picked up on it. Sadly the name-calling is still going on. There must be a discussion about immigration though, and I say that as the descendant of refugees.

On the economic point: instability is one of the biggest curses of economies and businesses everywhere, a lot of major companies have expressed worries about even having a referendum on Europe never mind us leaving altogether. It won't be so simple as continuing to trade while being politically separate, there would be incredibly laborious negotiations as we try and unravel our EU membership and then once that's done we would then need to start the equally long task of negotiating on what terms exactly our relationship will be with the rest of Europe. People talk about Switzerland but as I understand it their relationship with the EU is the product of years of complex agreements and treaties which is not particularly stable. If you separate yourself from the EU and reject it then we completely lose the ability to affect change from within and be a part of reforming the EU for the benefit of all that does need to happen.

As you know by now Kirk I have neither the time nor the inclination to post page-long dissertations on these topic as you do, I learned long ago that there's simply very little point. Especially on the Internet. something that I'm surprised you haven't realised yet.

However, two brief reasons:

1) over 50% if the UKs import/export trade is with Eu member states. If you believe that those trades won't be affected (amounting to tens of billions) by removing ourselves from the EU you are lying to yourself.

2) as someone else mentioned, US based and other global multinationals currently use the UK as a "stepping stone" to access the massive European marketplace. They will have very little interest in this scrappy little island without that link. I'll trust you to look into the economic implications of that for yourself.

The UK's place on the world stage is reliant on being a part of Europe. The only people who don't realise this are those who still, unfathomably, have their heads stuck in idea of Britain as an Empire, that we are somehow globally "great" on simple account of our own wonderful Great Britishness. We don't want to be part of Europe because we are somehow "bigger and better than that". We are not.

I have no idea which UKIP pamphlet you read this in but you are massively misinformed.

I find it a little insulting that you would assume I would get my opinions from a UKIP leaflet.

Well I don't know where you did get them from. US exports are worth around 80 billion and EU exports are worth over 150 billion. Germany alone is worth over 40 billion. The EU and US combined account for more than three quarters of our total trade and the EU itself around half.

In other words: we don't do "more trade" with the US than Europe or even close to it. It's about 50% Europe, 25% US, and the other 25% is the entirety of the rest of the world combined.

Greens have offered an in/out referendum.
Tories have offered an in/out referendum.
UKIP have offered an in/out referendum.
Liberal Democrats have offered an in/out referendum. (but why trust them lmao)

not just one party

:joker:

what rot

Why is it rot? If UKIP fail to gain any sort of influence at this election, they will be an irrelevance (once more) by the time the next one rolls round. They're enjoying their 15 minutes of fame but it won't come to much unless it's capitalised upon this year.

Ahh thankyou LT, for providing data showing that Germany and Holland alone ($79bn) are worth more in export revenue than the United States ($52bn).

Throw in France and it's more than double already. :facepalm:

Methinks some people have heard it stated that the US is our biggest trading partner as an individual country and somehow taken that to mean that they are worth more than the entire European Union :joker:.