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-   -   What everyone who's ever supported a housemate in Big Brother needs to understand... (https://www.thisisbigbrother.com/forums/showthread.php?t=351346)

James 04-11-2018 06:01 PM

What everyone who's ever supported a housemate in Big Brother needs to understand...
 
It's very unlikely your favourite is going to win the series, or even get to the final.

For example in the current series there are sixteen housemates. Statistically, that's a 1/16 (6.25%) chance any single housemate will win. Even getting to the final is only a 1/4 (25%) chance.

You're a setting yourself up for disappointment by supporting someone, and caring so much if they get evicted.

Ask yourself how often your favourite has won the show (or got to the final).

chuff me dizzy 04-11-2018 06:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by James (Post 10332386)
It's very unlikely your favourite is going to win the series, or even get to the final.

For example in the current series there are sixteen housemates. Statistically, that's a 1/16 (0.06%) chance any single housemate will win. Even getting to the final is only a 1/4 (25%) chance.

You're a setting yourself up for disappointment by supporting someone, and caring so much if they get evicted.

Ask yourself how often your favourite has won the show (or got to the final).

Ive got to admit Im pretty good at picking the winner from early on in the series

bots 04-11-2018 06:04 PM

Can't have any of this logical talk :laugh:

Elliot 04-11-2018 06:06 PM

Don’t forget if you’re a hot male multiply the odds by like 10 and cut in half the odds for any female that dares to ever cross him

Beastie 04-11-2018 06:08 PM

Very wise James. It's nice sometimes just to enjoy the show! Like for the final I want Cameron to win. But I would still be happy if Cian wins. Okay if Zoe wins and meh if Akeem wins :laugh:

Morgan. 04-11-2018 06:11 PM

I have to disagree slightly. There are character traits that the public won't warm to, or will nevertheless vote for. Black females an example, albeit overused, but iirc the highest they've gotten is 3rd Place. So their odds of winning are statistically lower based on track record.

Then you consider when they entered. The later into the series they join, the less chance the public have to warm to them, making their odds lower.

rusticgal 04-11-2018 06:12 PM

Think Ive supported 6 winners...and several finalists

Beastie 04-11-2018 06:13 PM

Also if you are Welsh or Irish you are likely to stay in longer ;)

user104658 04-11-2018 06:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by James (Post 10332386)
It's very unlikely your favourite is going to win the series, or even get to the final.

For example in the current series there are sixteen housemates. Statistically, that's a 1/16 (0.06%) chance any single housemate will win. Even getting to the final is only a 1/4 (25%) chance.

You're a setting yourself up for disappointment by supporting someone, and caring so much if they get evicted.

Ask yourself how often your favourite has won the show (or got to the final).

Dont give up the day job James! Your stats are waaay off, there are dozens of factors that go into determining the percentage chance of a win / place in the final,with certain housemates having a MUCH higher than one in 16 chance of winning / one in four of reaching the final. Cian and Akeem for example were highly likely to reach the final four from almost the word go. There isn't a bookmaker in the world who would have given you anything like 3/1 on those. I doubt you'd have gotten evens.

You also forgot the multiply your percentage for the win (it's 6.25% chance, not 0.06).

But again, from the moment of entry until now there's no way you'd have gotten 15/1 or even close on any of these finalists to win.

[edited to fix a couple of my own figures]

Matthew. 04-11-2018 06:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by James (Post 10332386)
1/16 (0.06%)

i think you mean 6.25%

RileyH 04-11-2018 06:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Toy Soldier (Post 10332397)
Dont give up the day job James! Your stats are waaay off, there are dozens of factors that go into determining the percentage chance of a win / place in the final,with certain housemates having a MUCH higher than one in 16 chance of winning / one in four of teaching the final. Cian and Akeem for example were highly likely to reach the final four from almost the word go. There isn't a bookmaker in the world who would have given you anything like 4/1 on those. I doubt you'd have gotten evens.

You also forgot the multiply your percentage for the win (it's 6.25% chance, not 0.06).

But again, from the moment of entry until now there's no way you'd have gotten 16/1 or even close on any of these finalists to win.

oop

Withano 04-11-2018 06:20 PM

I also took issue with that 1 in 16 thing. Edit that immediately.

James 04-11-2018 06:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Toy Soldier (Post 10332397)
Dont give up the day job James! Your stats are waaay off, there are dozens of factors that go into determining the percentage chance of a win / place in the final,with certain housemates having a MUCH higher than one in 16 chance of reaching the final. Cian and Akeem for example were highly likely to reach the final four from almost the word go. There isn't a bookmaker in the world who would have given you anything like 4/1 on those. I doubt you'd have gotten evens.

You also forgot the multiply your percentage for the win (it's 6.25% chance, not 0.06).

But again, from the moment of entry until now there's no way you'd have gotten 16/1 or even close on any of these finalists to win.

Well, I should have put all things being considered equal. Point stands. :p


Quote:

Originally Posted by Matthew. (Post 10332399)
i think you mean 6.25%

:facepalm:

Yeah, I messed up there. 6.25%

Withano 04-11-2018 06:21 PM

I just wish that people would realise that their favourite will be a dickhead some of the time. Stop defending every little thing they do, its tiring.

Add that to the op if you like, its very important.

Matthew. 04-11-2018 06:22 PM

i just checked my profile housemates and 4/29 of them are winners so i get your point

Withano 04-11-2018 06:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Matthew. (Post 10332409)
i just checked my profile housemates and 4/29 of them are winners so i get your point

8/41 for me

9/42 if Cameron wins

RileyH 04-11-2018 06:28 PM

I only have Helen, Rylan & Jack Dee ffs

Matthew. 04-11-2018 06:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Withano (Post 10332406)
I just wish that people would realise that their favourite will be a dickhead some of the time. Stop defending every little thing they do, its tiring.

Add that to the op if you like, its very important.

this

i just checked my profile again and with all of mine, i can point out something negative about them, or why someone might not like them

user104658 04-11-2018 06:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by James (Post 10332405)
Well, I should have put all things being considered equal. Point stands. [emoji14]




:facepalm:

Yeah, I messed up there. 6.25%

It is quite depressing I suppose that these things are never really equal... It would actually be quite interesting if someone put together all of the figures over the years and got some full stats on it! E.g. Is it true that Irish people last longer? Do Scottish people go sooner? Do men have a better chance than women? Does sexuality come into it? I'd guess all of these things do but I wonder what the "statistically most likely" finalist looks like :think:. I think actual WINNER involves a higher element of storylines / what happened during the series but I reckon "likely finalists" can be identified very early on. Cian, Zoe and Akeem were all really likely finalists right from the first week. Cameron not so much and needed that "story boost".

Funnily enough on first impressions, Lewis F was a very UNlikely finalist but would almost definitely have won if he hadn't been kicked... Which actually applies to a lot of "oddball" winners.

user104658 04-11-2018 06:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Withano (Post 10332406)
I just wish that people would realise that their favourite will be a dickhead some of the time. Stop defending every little thing they do, its tiring.

Add that to the op if you like, its very important.

Pobody's nerfect.

James 04-11-2018 06:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Toy Soldier (Post 10332397)
Dont give up the day job James! Your stats are waaay off, there are dozens of factors that go into determining the percentage chance of a win / place in the final,with certain housemates having a MUCH higher than one in 16 chance of winning / one in four of reaching the final. Cian and Akeem for example were highly likely to reach the final four from almost the word go. There isn't a bookmaker in the world who would have given you anything like 3/1 on those. I doubt you'd have gotten evens.

You also forgot the multiply your percentage for the win (it's 6.25% chance, not 0.06).

But again, from the moment of entry until now there's no way you'd have gotten 15/1 or even close on any of these finalists to win.

[edited to fix a couple of my own figures]

These were the odds, I found, to win at the start (15th September, we'd only seen launch show), according an Irish bookmaker - which might affect the odds given. The favourite 9/2 in percentage terms is 22% (?)

Cian - 9/2
Sian - 9/2
Zoe - 11/2
Akeem - 8/1
Tomasz - 8/1
Ellis - 10/1
Cameron - 10/1
Brooke - 14/1
Lewis F - 16/1
Kenaly - 16/1
Kay - 20/1
Lewis G - 25/1
Isaac - 25/1
Anamelia - 25/1

Actually, when I look at that, they did predict three out the final four.

From https://www.thesun.ie/tvandshowbiz/t...rother-farmer/

Smithy 04-11-2018 06:47 PM

James just pissing on everyone’s parade :laugh:

DouglasS 04-11-2018 06:48 PM

I normally do not support 1 single housemate which increases my odds, I usually have 2 favorites or so a season

Winners I have supported/been in my top 2 have been;

Nadia,
Brian Belo,
Sophie,
Josie,
Aaron,
Luke A
Isabelle

so I'm doing okay.

y.winter 04-11-2018 06:58 PM

The chances of the four of them making it to the final after surviving every public vote in which they could've gone home (inc. Cameron's decision):
Cameron and Zoe - 66%
Cian - 44%
Akeem - 7%

Akeem was lucky!

Matthew. 04-11-2018 06:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by James (Post 10332428)
These were the odds, I found, to win at the start (15th September, we'd only seen launch show), according an Irish bookmaker - which might affect the odds given. The favourite 9/2 in percentage terms is 22% (?)

Cian - 9/2
Zoe - 11/2
Akeem - 8/1
Tomasz - 8/1
Ellis - 10/1
Cameron - 10/1
Brooke - 14/1
Lewis F - 16/1
Kenaly - 16/1
Kay - 20/1
Lewis G - 25/1
Isaac - 25/1
Anamelia - 25/1

Actually, when I look at that, they did predict three out the final four.

From https://www.thesun.ie/tvandshowbiz/t...rother-farmer/

sorry ik i probably sound like i’m on a mission to point out every mistake you make but you missed out Sian, and that article had her at 9/2, same as Cian

y.winter 04-11-2018 07:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by James (Post 10332428)
These were the odds, I found, to win at the start (15th September, we'd only seen launch show), according an Irish bookmaker - which might affect the odds given. The favourite 9/2 in percentage terms is 22% (?)

Cian - 9/2
Zoe - 11/2
Akeem - 8/1
Tomasz - 8/1
Ellis - 10/1
Cameron - 10/1
Brooke - 14/1
Lewis F - 16/1
Kenaly - 16/1
Kay - 20/1
Lewis G - 25/1
Isaac - 25/1
Anamelia - 25/1

Actually, when I look at that, they did predict three out the final four.

From https://www.thesun.ie/tvandshowbiz/t...rother-farmer/

Not Sian being the obvious winner that they didn't bother putting her on the list :laugh:

James 04-11-2018 07:11 PM

Oh, Sian was 9/2 also, joint favourite.

I missed that. :umm2:

ThriceShy 04-11-2018 07:18 PM

I can't understand why people give that much of a toss about a particular housemate winning. There are housemates who I could not stand the thought of winning, such as Helen, Rachel and Ulrika. But other than that, I'm not sure I care.

I watch for the arguments and to see narcissists get put in their place. If they are all getting along then it's time to change channel.

Some of the antics on here over the last few days, such as claiming that Sian won the series have been, frankly, embarrassing. The torrent of personal abuse I got when I suggested I was glad that chav Sian left was just shameful. People need to find lives and not be so invested in a housemate that doesn't know or care they exist.

Cherie 04-11-2018 07:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by James (Post 10332386)
It's very unlikely your favourite is going to win the series, or even get to the final.

For example in the current series there are sixteen housemates. Statistically, that's a 1/16 (0.06%) chance any single housemate will win. Even getting to the final is only a 1/4 (25%) chance.

You're a setting yourself up for disappointment by supporting someone, and caring so much if they get evicted.

Ask yourself how often your favourite has won the show (or got to the final).

I dont vote apart from when BOTs was doing his campaign so I can’t really complain, dont really understand people who spend alot of money voting :conf:

Cherie 04-11-2018 07:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ThriceShy (Post 10332461)
I can't understand why people give that much of a toss about a particular housemate winning. There are housemates who I could not stand the thought of winning, such as Helen, Rachel and Ulrika. But other than that, I'm not sure I care.

I watch for the arguments and to see narcissists get put in their place. If they are all getting along then it's time to change channel.

Some of the antics on here over the last few days, such as claiming that Sian won the series have been, frankly, embarrassing. The torrent of personal abuse I got when I suggested I was glad that chav Sian left was just shameful. People need to find lives and not be so invested in a housemate that doesn't know or care they exist.



Agree

ThatsMyUserName 04-11-2018 07:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Beastie (Post 10332396)
Also if you are Welsh or Irish you are likely to stay in longer ;)

That's why I'm still hoping Akeem can win.

Dinah 04-11-2018 09:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cherie (Post 10332474)
I dont vote apart from when BOTs was doing his campaign so I can’t really complain, dont really understand people who spend alot of money voting :conf:

:blush:I used to vote but came to my senses and stopped a long time ago.

Ant. 04-11-2018 11:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by James (Post 10332386)
It's very unlikely your favourite is going to win the series, or even get to the final.

For example in the current series there are sixteen housemates. Statistically, that's a 1/16 (0.06%) chance any single housemate will win. Even getting to the final is only a 1/4 (25%) chance.

You're a setting yourself up for disappointment by supporting someone, and caring so much if they get evicted.

Ask yourself how often your favourite has won the show (or got to the final).

i think your maths is off a tad

Ant. 04-11-2018 11:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RileyH (Post 10332418)
I only have Helen, Rylan & Jack Dee ffs

I only have taste :hee:

James 04-11-2018 11:23 PM

I have corrected the errors in my previous posts. :umm2:

Ant. 04-11-2018 11:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by James (Post 10333146)
I have corrected the errors in my previous posts. :umm2:

:umm2:

GoldHeart 05-11-2018 06:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Beastie (Post 10332396)
Also if you are Welsh or Irish you are likely to stay in longer ;)

It's worked for Akeem & Cian :clap1:

hijaxers 05-11-2018 06:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ThriceShy (Post 10332461)
I can't understand why people give that much of a toss about a particular housemate winning. There are housemates who I could not stand the thought of winning, such as Helen, Rachel and Ulrika. But other than that, I'm not sure I care.

I watch for the arguments and to see narcissists get put in their place. If they are all getting along then it's time to change channel.

Some of the antics on here over the last few days, such as claiming that Sian won the series have been, frankly, embarrassing. The torrent of personal abuse I got when I suggested I was glad that chav Sian left was just shameful. People need to find lives and not be so invested in a housemate that doesn't know or care they exist.


Yes i agree it really becomes so boring harping on about someone who never had a hope in hell of winning.

thesheriff443 05-11-2018 06:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by James (Post 10333146)
I have corrected the errors in my previous posts. :umm2:

With this thread James you have,

gone into the enemy’s camp holding the the gun the wrong way round.

You made a pigs eat of it.

Kazanne 05-11-2018 06:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ThriceShy (Post 10332461)
I can't understand why people give that much of a toss about a particular housemate winning. There are housemates who I could not stand the thought of winning, such as Helen, Rachel and Ulrika. But other than that, I'm not sure I care.

I watch for the arguments and to see narcissists get put in their place. If they are all getting along then it's time to change channel.

Some of the antics on here over the last few days, such as claiming that Sian won the series have been, frankly, embarrassing. The torrent of personal abuse I got when I suggested I was glad that chav Sian left was just shameful. People need to find lives and not be so invested in a housemate that doesn't know or care they exist.

This is so true


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