Online polls dont match odds. anyone else wondering if marcus might go?
 

I wonder why the online polls don't match the polls for evictions today.

for all intents and purposes...it appears to be very close (between marcus & noirin) but the odds are suggesting that marcus has no chance of leaving.

I maybe nuts, but, I've placed a few bets since yesterday on marcus going tonight.

The logic behind the bets are fairly flawed and are:

(a) I can't see BB letting noirin go - the new dynamics in the house are intriguing, everyone was on a knife edge last night. If noirin goes...that all evaporates.

(b) despite there being a lot of anti-noirin posts on some BB forums....I think it's actually much closer than the bookies think.

I'm not suggesting everyone should rush out and place a bet on marcus and I'm guessing I maybe in the minority thinking that he might go...but, is anyone else wondering if there will be a "shock" eviction tonight and marcus does go?

Bookies seem pretty sure Noirin is going.

When was the last time they were wrong?

10 March 1986

Steph wk 1 last year they got wrong but in saying that it ended up being v close between her and Mario

I hope the bookies have it right tonight though

:laugh2::laugh2:

You're right. You never see a poor bookie.

I'm obviously suffering from marcusitus....i.e. what I'm thinking in my head bears no resemblance to reality...in other words..I really want him to go so I can win my bet!

The factor for Marcus to go:
That powerful 16-22 'girl power' mobile phone wielding power block demographic. They LIVE to identify the 'chauvinist pig' and then they will fingerbang the voting lines day and night with a vengeance.
These are ones who have been going to eviction night and booing Marcus when Marcus wasn't even being evicted or nominated!
They are a huge part of the BB voting and as seen in the past they demonstrate this contrived misdirected 'girl power' time after time.
They have also been surprisingly vocal in responding boos and hisses at the slightest invitations on BBLB.
Now.. I also think this can just as easily turn round the other way. If a lot of this same group loves Siavash (and many do) then they can also harshly punish a woman who they believe has 'betrayed them'. Harshly.

Well I suppose that did nothing to help you feel any better or worse but there is my humble opinion heh.

the 16-22 girl power thing is interesting. THere was that famous incident where Marcus exploited his friendship with noirin and groped her while she was drunk. (He told siavash about it, which was even more disturbing).

A 35 year old man groping a drunk friend like that, is something I thought would send that demog into overdrive voting to get him out.

but I guess that's all forgotten now.

I just saw the most recent news piece about bea and noirin having a blazing row.....which is particularly damning for noirin - she really doesn't have a leg to stand on and bea knows it.

So I am afraid that noirin looks like she's almost certainly out.

A pity for two reasons. one, I'll lose my bet and two, it will destroy the new house dynamic, which is on a knife edge at the moment.

Good points and I think the betrayal on Siavash might well have turned the 'girl power' demographic to just forget about Marcus this week and punish Noirin for now.
How could I even forget to mention Isaac as nothing short of a massive 'chauvinist pig' and Noirin siding with him.
Geez.. now that I think about it - she may very well get SLAUGHTERED by that 'girl power block'!!

They won't forget Marcus though. I think they might just put him 'on hold' temporarily to punish Noirin.

I have to say she was absolutely disgusting in last nights episode. I mean I always thought she was but that was beyond everything. Sociopath and about as horrible a person as I can ever imagine.
Seriously - Kenneth has more heart than that horrible little beast of a woman.

It would even be freaky if it turned out she got blown out in a massive monster 90+%

All I know is that Marcus sure looked relieved heh

The last time they opened incorrectly on any eviction was Scouser Mikey (BB7).

That's the correct answer to your question!

Its gonna be a close one but I think Noirins sealed her fate now

It would have been less effort to go throw your money down the nearest drain TBH

Maxwell v Science in 2005
Samanda v Brian 2008
Celebrity bb when Ulrika won.

I think we could be in for a shock tonight and Marcus to be evicted

LOL.

you're probably right....but I smell a shock result tonight i.e. marcus going.

The online polls are much closer than the odds suggest and it would be a massive boost for bb if marcus did go....not just because of the shock....but because it means the new house dynamic...which is compelling...continues.

people want to see more spats between bea and noirin....they don't want to see marcus moping around in his duvet all day.

Most people voted on the polls before all this happened with the slag. If you did a reset of all polls, Noirin would race into the lead.

I can't wait to see the reaction :banana:

On the live gambling sites, the current debate is not whether Nora is gone but whether she will crack 70% (there are percentage markets)

that's the strange thing....the odds for percentages is very high in the 50-60% margin..

http://www.oddschecker.com/specials/...ion-percentage

Which means all the money is going on a very tight result.

At the moment it's 4/5 for 50-60% (which means if you put down 4 quid you will win 5) and 7/10 for 70-80% (which means if you put down 7 you will win 10).

Okay well...

1) No polls were reset from when Isaac went in, there for you cant vote again and many people have changed there mind and want Noirin out.

2) Most fans have never heard of TiBB :joker: or any other sites most are all stupid people who just watch the HLs when they get a chance right?

So dont belive the stupid onlines polls, when not much BB Fans even use them

Win markets are irrelevant as they are driiven by punters.

To repeat, the last time they opened incorractly on any eviction was Scouser Mikey (BB7).

There have, however, been several subsequent occasions where mug punters have pushed the odds the wrong way - Steph (BB9), Lisa (BB9), Jade (BBCH), Latoya (BBCH).

fair point about polls resetting...but I assume the same goes for voting...i.e. a l ot of people may have voted for marcus earlier in the week, before slag-gate kicked off.

1/16--noirin
13/2--marcus

The Tibb and BB online polls have always been right unless theres less than 5% in it...it could go either way, but Noirin has been a twat most recently

It's not strange at all - they are just hobby markets for gamblers now that the eviction market per se is dead in odds terms. The total transactied on the 60% or under across the whole of the UK and Ireland currently stands at £1630. And there is no liquidity left in that play market for sweetie money.

But by all means log into betfair and have a bash if you really think it's a sure thing for under 60%