Statistical Chances of Winning
 

I created a formulae from previous winners to include the chances of winning based on different criteria - gender, age, nationality, race, entrance, sexuality etc. I have then calculated the finalists chance of winning, and o pared them to evicted housemates.

Zoe: 8.2%
Cameron: 6.0%
Cian: 5.4%
Akeem: 4.8%

1. Lewis F: 8.6%
2. Lewis G: 8.6%
3. Sîan: 8.2%
4. Zoe: 8.2%
5. Isabella: 7.8%
6. Isaac: 6.6%
7. Hussain: 6.2%
8. Kenaley: 6.1%
9. Brooke: 6.0%
10. Cameron: 6.0%
11. Cian: 5.4%
12. Ellis: 5.3%
13. Tomasz: 5.2%
14. Akeem: 5.0%
15. Anamélia: 4.8%
16. Kay: 4.4%

From this, Zoe statistically stands the best chance of winning on Monday, whilst Akeem has the least chance startistically.

Meanwhile Lewis F and Lewis G stood the best chances of winning statistically from the whole cast, with Kay having the least chance.

what is the formula?

Gosh, that’s interesting, will probably happen

I was afraid to ask :hehe:

but we all know she would have won had she not walked

Funny how Zoe's coming 4th isn't it

Kenaley having higher percentage than cian and Cameron ddd cmon girl she was doomed from the first minute

Basically, I added up the character traits of all winners (Civillian and Celeb). This is gender, sexuality, nationality, skin colour, launch entrance or late entrance and age. E.g. There's been 31 English winners, 2 Irish, 3 Welsh, no Scottish and 4 others.

I'd then go through the housemate list, and add up all of their traits. E.g. Zoe is non-LGBT (34), English (31), Female (16), 31+ (17) and White (38). That gives her 136, and I'd create a percentage using that and the total of everyone's score added together.

Impressive

:fist:

oh wow this is actually pretty clever

bet that took ages though :laugh:

Thanks :love:

About 30/40 minutes :laugh:

And I'll add that Zoe would've been much lower in the odds if I'd just included civilian housemates. Most celebrity winners were above 30 so that helped by her chances. But because it's the same show I included both Winners.

calculate my chances of winning against these bozos :D

Kenaley was always at 0% lets not kid ourselves!

Not black female winner standing the same chance as a Scottish winner.

Where this formula fails is that they do not put in 50 percent LGBT contestants and 50 percent straight contestants. Therefore there are not going to be as many LGBT contestants as straight contestants win. Same with black contestants. I reckon in actual propotion LGBT contestants have faired better than non-LGBT tbh.

From what I know about you, 5.8%. Above Cian and under Cameron. 11th overall.

That is very true, and my scraped C in GCSE maths means I have literally no idea how to make the figures proportional.

oof

can you do one for me as well please? :hee:

Very clever :clap1:

(Although when i added all the percentages together in came out at 102.4%)

I added up in my head so specific numbers might be 1 or 2 out - but their placing will still be roughly the same and nothing wouldn't have changed drastically.

Again just a guess, but 6.6% - so equal chances to Isaac and 6th/7th overall.

i’m 6th place just like legend Brooke! :flutter:

thanks!