Predict the 2024 General Election Result
 

Shall we play a game?

Predict the 2024 UK General Election Result.

Which party will win most seats on July 4th -

Also what will be the majority or will it be a hung parliament (leading party doesn't win over half the seats) -


2019 general election result was,

Party winning most seats: Conservative

Majority: 80.

I think that Labour have a majority by 25 seats.

Labour with a majority of well over 100 seats

Conservative with a majority of 10

A long way to go but .....
Labour with a majority. ( Hopefully).
However I hope not with a massive majority.
More a one around 40.

If the vote was today, Labour (small-ish majority, not as big as people are expecting).

But there's still a few weeks and we'll see what other lies they all come up with to dupe people into changing their vote. We've already got this National Service debacle :facepalm: so you can truly never predict what they'll say. It could be literally anything. We know by now that election "promises" are rarely kept, but still for some bizarre reason sway people :think:.

"Ooh yes I want that to happen, I'll vote for them!!" still, when we know fine well you can vote for [whoever] all you want it doesn't mean anything they said will actually come to pass :laugh:. I admire people's optimism though I suppose?

For why I think the majority will be less than expected - it's not because I think the Tories will do well. I think they're absolutely tanked. However I think there will be a higher-than -expected "protest vote" for non-Labour/Tory candidates and that will upset the apple cart a bit.

I have absolutely NO idea what's going to happen in terms of Scottish seats. Bizarrely t this point my "ideal" for Scotland would be a tonne of SNP MPs in Westminster, but PR in Holyrood with a fairly even split between multiple parties.

this is what i think as well

the Tories are unpopular, but Labour isn't that popular either


some other party could win too

There are some tory seats that will never vote labour no matter what the political situation, and the same is true for labour. It always comes down to the marginal seats. Bear in mind that the effect of tory mp's resigning works both ways. Many voters could say lets give the new candidate a chance. They may feel they are getting the old Tory party back rather than the ukip lite they currently have.

The other thing is that media just isn't consumed the way it used to be. People tend to only watch outlets that reflect and reinforce their own political views. It's like fox news and msnbc in America. In those circumstances polling means less and less


This all leads me to believe that it will be a much closer contest than people/mainstream media think. I think it will be very close to a repeat of the Theresa May election leading to a tiny majority for the tories, because electorally, the tories have an advantage in the way constituencies are configured that put the advantage with the tories before a vote is even cast

The other thing to remember is that it is a summer election. That is the best time to get a tory vote