Be cautious about bookies as indicators
 

Oddschecker shows odds across the whole range of major bookies, and currently the twins are averaging below 1.5 - and still shortening (nearly all blue squares) - while Brian is just below 3.0 - and drifting (nearly all pink squares). Liam is also drifting, and is currently around 11.0. What this shows is that the Twins are very nearly into Dead Cert territory. The money is piling on them now.

I hope that they are right, because I'll be about £250 in profit from all my bets over the last few weeks if the Twins pull it off. But, although bookies are usually a good indicator, their chance of being wrong is much greater than it is with something like football, where their expertise counts for a lot more. With BB, they are trying to guess what the public is thinking, and that's much more difficult than forecasting the result of a football match. Their opinion about public perception is worth no more than yours or mine. Also, it should never be forgotten that odds do not shorten only because of bookies' estimation about chances of winning. They also shorten simply because lots of money is going on. You can sometimes get a band-wagon effect where a contestant seems to be on a roll, money piles on, odds shorten, more money piles on, odds shorten still further.... and it could all be a phantom. Gamblers can easily forget that rapidly shortening odds often represent nothing more than a surge in the perceptions of other gamblers. It might have nothing to do with public perception at all. But on the night, it's the public who will be doing the voting. It could all go tits up. I hope not, but it could.

twins should win !! its either gunna be brian / twins and i hope the twins win!!

Twins to win
i hope the bookies are right!

nookies are normally always right for who wins and who goes last year it changed back to pete that was going to win then glyn then ashleyn and they were right and with most of the evictions they werwe right this year

They were nearly wrong yesterday. I took bets at Boylesports on Tracey&Jonty at 21.0 and Kara&Jonty at 11.0. Very strange odds, since it implied that Tracey was more popular than Kara. But either bet was a value bet. I missed Tracey&Jonty by a whisker (0.01% was the margin between Kara and Jonty). The bookies were right with the actual result, but the odds were truly cockeyed. Kara&Tracey was offered at 1.03, which was ridiculously short. But that's the reason, of course, that the odds on the other two combinations were so long. Boylesports could have lost a bundle last night. Bookies do get it wrong sometimes.

Let this be a lesson

This is down to the wire

We can not let up

We must save the twins by getting them to safety of the winner's circle :nono:

Remember Amanda and Sam supporters to report to Boot Camp. Link in my sig

I honestly believe this will be the first time ever that the bookies are wrong.

TWINS MUST WIN if there such a dead cery they shouldent be wrong if so many peoiple are putting miney on them there oviously gonna phone for them to win.

Ah, gamblers only make up a small percentage of the people who call and vote. Their votes will make hardly any impact statistically. It's all down to the public, not the gamblers.

I hope the twins win because, a) I stand to win a nice bit of money, and b) I love them. But I'm not complacent. It cheers me up to see their odds shortening, but I know how deceptive that can be.

Brian has to win!

You know what governments fear at general elections. Consistant indications of a sure win. Such indications make supporters feel safe and do not bother to vote.

The twins are not safe. Repeat not safe. Vote vote vote the twins...