Terpsichore |
25-08-2007 03:03 PM |
Be cautious about bookies as indicators
Oddschecker shows odds across the whole range of major bookies, and currently the twins are averaging below 1.5 - and still shortening (nearly all blue squares) - while Brian is just below 3.0 - and drifting (nearly all pink squares). Liam is also drifting, and is currently around 11.0. What this shows is that the Twins are very nearly into Dead Cert territory. The money is piling on them now.
I hope that they are right, because I'll be about £250 in profit from all my bets over the last few weeks if the Twins pull it off. But, although bookies are usually a good indicator, their chance of being wrong is much greater than it is with something like football, where their expertise counts for a lot more. With BB, they are trying to guess what the public is thinking, and that's much more difficult than forecasting the result of a football match. Their opinion about public perception is worth no more than yours or mine. Also, it should never be forgotten that odds do not shorten only because of bookies' estimation about chances of winning. They also shorten simply because lots of money is going on. You can sometimes get a band-wagon effect where a contestant seems to be on a roll, money piles on, odds shorten, more money piles on, odds shorten still further.... and it could all be a phantom. Gamblers can easily forget that rapidly shortening odds often represent nothing more than a surge in the perceptions of other gamblers. It might have nothing to do with public perception at all. But on the night, it's the public who will be doing the voting. It could all go tits up. I hope not, but it could.
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