Quote:
Originally Posted by Toy Soldier
I do like to think I am Jet and I'm not being sarcastic or joking; I haven't seen any economic analysis of no-deal Brexit that shows it being anything but damaging. The range is from "Definite recession but manageable" to "huge economic shock with global knock-on effect". I genuinely haven't seen any that suggest a positive economic effect, or even anything approaching "negligible". I'm not talking about newspaper articles, those are spinning off in all directions, you said economic analysis so that's what I asked about. Fairly conservative estimates show that over time the likely impact on the UK could easily be 8 - 10% of GDP which is frankly huge.
I have done my research. I can't find any economic report (NOT article) that in any way shows anything promising. I'm not having a go, or keyboard-battling, the situation is immensely stressful and I'm worried about my own and my family's futures. So like I said if you really have seen economic analysis that is in any way reassuring, I'd want to see it, but yes I am very skeptical that it exists. The most level-headed reports from economists who have nothing to do with the UK or EU and no vested political interests are saying recession is inevitable. The only debate is over "how bad".
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There are a lot of articles by experts saying how dire things are going to be, that we face years of hardship and might never recover, our place in the world is damaged forever etc etc. Then other experts predict that there will be only very short term teething problems and in the long run we will prosper.
This is one I read recently:
https://www.finance-monthly.com/2017...act-of-brexit/
Your thoughts on it?