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Old 25-05-2020, 10:11 AM #692
Toy Soldier Toy Soldier is offline
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Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 30,350


Toy Soldier Toy Soldier is offline
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Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 30,350


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If anyone is interested in my full (disclosure for Kizzy: I'm not a medical professional) theory on why the London numbers have dropped so low.

- 60% infection/recovery rate is needed for herd immunity to start to take effect
- Studies have shown that 20% of the overall London population has had Covid.
- BUT only a certain percentage of Londoners have been regularly out and about during lockdown.
- It is IMO feasible that over 60% of socially active Londoners have been infected and recovered, resulting in a level of immunity "in the population that's still out and about".
- New infections, therefore, drop exponentially.

The potential problem:

- The section of the population that has been mainly quarantining starts getting back out there, the percentage of people "in public" who have a level of immunity immediately drops back down to 20% - 30% and new infections shoot back up. Possibly not to the same level as peak, but a noticeable "smaller peak". And of course, as with the early days, we won't know until 2 - 4 weeks from now.
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