DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
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At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ian was located
near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 83.7 West. Ian is moving toward
the north near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is expected to
continue today. A turn toward the north-northeast with a reduction
in forward speed is forecast tonight and Wednesday. On the
forecast track, the center of Ian is expected to move over western
Cuba during the next few hours. Ian will then emerge over the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico later this morning, pass west of the
Florida Keys later today, and approach the west coast of Florida
within the hurricane warning area on Wednesday and Wednesday night.
Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher
gusts. Ian is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is expected while
Ian moves over Cuba. Strengthening is expected later this
morning after Ian emerges over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.
Ian is forecast to approach the west coast of Florida has a major
hurricane.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb (28.12 inches).
NOAA
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So just clipping the very West of Cuba now as a cat 3 and then it gets bigger
to 4 and stalls a bit to West of Florida then bends NE into the Tampa area
where its going to cause a lot of trouble weds