Quote:
Originally posted by Intruder
wasnt the bookies was the big brother site got it of lol
Science 8/11
Orlaith 1/1
if they stay like that who goes?
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The current odds mean that for every £11 you place on Science to go, you'd get £19 if he went (£8 winnings plus the initial £11 stake back). Whilst if you placed that same £11 on Orlaith you'd get £22 back. If you's placed your £11 on Science when nominations were announced at 3/1 you;d get £44 back
The thing to remember is that its only with the initial prediction are the bookies forcasting anything, thereafter they are simply responding to how people are betting, in this situation the public felt the 3/1 on science to go was a better bet than the 2/5 on Orlaith, and betted more strongly on Science to go than Orlaith. This created an inbalance where by there was a lot more money placed on Science, the bookies then adjusted their odds to encourage people to bet on Orlaith
(side note its actually possible in this situation to place two bets a couple of days apart so that you are guaranteed to win money, provided the odds on the least favourite drop, this is nearly guaranteed with two up for noms because odds of less than evens (1/1) are unappealing to people, and with only two up for nomination someone has to have odds less than evens)
So essentialy the change of odds is a reflection of how people have betted, they will swing back a little as people conclude that Orlaith is a good bet at evens.
Interestingly the bookies have been wrong with their initial assesment for 5 out of 7 evictions
Week 1 - Fav Craig, second fav Mary went
Week 2 - Fav Derek, second fav Lesley went
Week 3 - Fav Derek, second fav Sam went
week 4 - Fav Derek, second fav Roberto went
Week 6 - Fav Science, second fav Maxwell went
The bookies were only correct on Saskia and Vanessa (and Makosi apparently got the Public vote).
This may indicate that people are placing bets on someone less likely to go, and then voting them out for that reason.