Very slim. But there is a tiny chink:

1 - Alex is less popular than when he beat Spanky.

2 - Fans of Jade, Jonny and Kate could take the opportunity to get Alex out of the way, knowing that Tim poses no threat.

3 - Alex has always stirred up large pro- and anti- feelings, which is why his previous victories have been relatively narrow. However he reduced popularity may reduce the pro- vote but the anti- vote just might stay as high as it was.

OK I expect Alex to win this vote comfortably, but if a bandwagon could be built up, like the one that got rid of Alison, you never know!