[shash]

I don't see where people get this image that he is cocky from (aside from the one occasion he let himself down with Lisa) I think he is highly analytical and applies cold logic to some of his statements and they are misinterpreted as cockiness. None of his actions nor his body language suggest an ounce of arrogance.
Besides, when he said that to Bea, it was her that goaded it out of him. She asked who he thought would go.