[jyunga]

I think Aaron will win. It seems pretty obvious he will survive any time he is put up right now considering people like Jay/Mark/Alex aren't really getting nominated by anyone. I think Aaron will easily last into the final week when they have the final group left.

Something else to consider is that Mark has quieted down quite a bit and has befriend Aaron. Quite a few of Marks fans are likely going off him a bit and probably a bunch of them have turned on to Aaron.

People know about Lousie and the whole boyfriend thing on the outside. I think she'll cause Jay to lose some fans if she keeps playing around with him and causes some drama down the road.

Alex is probably going to start growing old on people. Especially if she keeps acting overly stupid and getting called out on it like Tom did the other night.

As for Aaron, he has on advantage that a lot of past favourites didn't have (his child). In a few weeks we are likely going to see the HMs get videos from home. You know his video is going to be his son and I have no doubt his reaction to seeing his son and the reception of the other HMs to seeing that is going to push a lot of the current drama with him out of peoples heads.