I made a thread earlier in the week saying why he may well go
http://www.thisisbigbrother.com/foru...611&highlight=
Only took 15 mins looking through comments/tweets to see what I described in the OP.
Arron wasnt thought to be safe, he was merely casted aside in favour or Conor. He started getting Arron's 'hot' vote and people who loved Arron/Conor went for the ringleader as Arron came across a sheep to him.