Quote:
Originally Posted by SurfersCreed
Having lived in China for several years ( teaching) I am convinced that like so much in China, it's "economic strength" is a facade.
The cracks have been showing for several years, but if you've been paying attention, you'll have noticed a barely concealed panic in China's Communist Party this year.
When the smoke & mirrors fail and it's economy collapses, it WON'T be like Japan in the 90's. Japan was a stable and developed democracy when it's economy ground to a halt.
Japan could survive 20 years of economic stagnation because of this.
China on the other hand, is still essentially a 3rd World (75% of its population still live in rural poverty) one party system. This leaves it far more vulnerable to political collapse and social chaos.
I'm afraid this is going to happen within the next decade.
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I really disagree with this. They have such economic strength purely for the reasons you believe them to be a facade - when your economy is based on building things cheaply, and paying next to nothing to people to do this, then it really helps if 75% of your population is rural poor.
China is in no way heading for a crash, and if by some miracle they do, then the impact on the west will be far in excess of anything they suffer. At some point in the distant future China will recalibrate as the work force (over generations) begins to claw some power back, but this is a long process.