Quote:
Originally Posted by Livia
I'm deadly serious. There's more than a year to go till the general election. The economy is recovering, unemployment is down, they're the only party to promise a referendum on Europe, the aliented party faithful are starting to return... meanwhile Ed Miliband continues to be a great asset to the Tories.
I don't think it's questionable that UKIP will take third palce from the LibDems. Let's see what happens at the Euro election in May. That's going to be very telling for all the parties.
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I think standard indicators are likely to be more than slightly off for the next general election to be honest - I think there stands to be an unusually large number of people at the polling stations who usually don't bother to vote at all. There specifically to vote "anti-Tory", or in other words mostly Labour (for lack of alternatives).
A year is a long time in politics but I don't think it's anywhere near long
enough. The Tories would need not only to see an unprecedented upswing in the economy, but also a leap in both living standards and for a HUGE number of real (full time, contracted) jobs to suddenly become available.
I personally think it's highly unlikely that any economic recovery will trickle down to the average voter at any time before the next general election. It'll stay firmly in the pockets of a relative few.