Quote:
Originally Posted by Kizzy
It's a hypothetical question, nobody knows what will happen after the election so all the tory squalling about what ifs is equally as irrelevant by that token.
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The Conservatives,well some of their Ministers,(not the whole party,some are even dismayed Cameron is spending so much time fuelling this Scottish/English divisive talk),are furious that the SNP have said they will do all they can to lock the Conservatives out of power if they have the numbers to after the election.
What Ed Miliband has said is he will have no 'formal' deals with the SNP.
He has said if he gets the chance to, he will present a minority Labour govts; Queen's speech to parliament.
IT will then be up to all the other parties to either vote for that Queen's speech,vote against it or abstain, no deals done at all.
If the SNP back that Labour Queen's speech since they have said they will never pave the way for a Conservative led govt;
Then Labour governs as a minority Labour govt: still no deals done.
The SNP get no concessions or deals at all except they don't inflict on Scotland a Conservative led govt; which they have promised the Scots they will never let happen.
Miliband has ruled out, a coalition or confidence and supply,however that doesn't mean he cannot have the support of the SNP, if they decide to vote for his proposals, to keep the Conservatives out.
The SNP can still support a min.Labour govt; in order to ensure the Conservatives are out and stay out of power.
Even in the instance of Labour not being the largest party,if Labour MPs and SNP MPs make up a majority of votes in parliament,then the Conservatives can not govern at all,as they would not be able to reach overall majority status,even if they were the largest party.
David Cameron would have the right to put forward a Queen's speech first but once defeated then the chance would pass to Ed Miliband.
If Cameron is sure he couldn't win a Queen's speech vote, then he could resign right off as PM and allow Ed Miliband to put one forward.
Say the Conservatives had 284 seats,Labour had 275,seats, the SNP 53 seats.
Labour and the SNP combined would be 328 seats.
That would leave only 322 MPs left for all other parties, Sinn Feinn are likely to have at least 4 seats,they don't take their seats at the Westminster parliament,so that reduces further the 322 opposing number to at least 318.
Labour in that scenario could govern fine and would also be able to probably rely on votes too from Plaid Cymru, Greens and the SDLP from Northern Ireland.
Making their position even that bit stronger.
The worst scenario that could come about, would be that the SNP choose to vote down both the Labour Queen's speech and also a Conservative Queen's speech.
In that case, there would have to be another general election.
That is what Ed Miliband is happy to take a chance on happening,as he knows the SNP would have to explain that to their voters in Scotland.
So he seems to be prepared to call their bluff as to that.