Trumps campaign is nose diving. His attack on the Trump University judge and his gloating speech after the Orlando shooting seem to be the straw that broke the camels back. He's now spouting conspiracies theories on everything: Obama is sympathetic to ISIS, the judge cant be objective even though he was born in the USA, the Orlando shooters ideals come from overseas even though he also was born in the USA and in both instances Trump is claiming the fact they were born in the USA doesnt matter as its their heritage from outside that matters. Clearly Trump doesnt point that logic at his own family, all of Trumps wives were non US citizens when he married them so arent his own children as untrustworthy as these two individuals.
Hillary finally has a lead but not due to great campaigning but more due to Trump finally being seen as the clown he clearly is.