Quote:
Originally Posted by jaxie
A lot can change but as my granny used to say you can't make a silk purse out of sow's ear. Corbyn is a sow's ear.
It was fairly obvious conservatives would win the last election because of three things. The most important (this will be familiar) no one liked the labour leader and the man at the top is important. The SNP has slaughtered the labour vote in Scotland. The other reason they were likely to win was the promise of a referendum on the EU. Many people have wanted this for years but they wouldn't give it to us because they were scared we'd vote leave. Hence the leave vote not being a total shock.
Politics can be predictable. The GBP will not vote labour if they don't like the leader. Not supporters but all those other folks you need to win a general election. No one liked Gordon and his back door leadership deal. No one liked Ed, should have picked the other brother. No one likes Jeremy, no one will like Owen. Labour need to get one thing right and choose a leader people can get behind or they simply will not win.
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Yes a leader is important,as time goes on, depending on what happens, it may be the voters do not like Theresa My lording it over us as PM after being elected by only 60% of Conservative MPs.
You omit to point out when you mention Browns back door Leadership deal, which in my view was wrong,, that he was elected unopposed, he actually became PM with no votes cast against him from any Labour MP at the time.
Far more voted that Theresa May got here.
Also you seem to have omitted that when Brown took over ,he got a resurgence for labour in the polls,taking labour into the lead again.
All experts were thinking he would call an election in the Autumn of 2007 as he was so high in the polling.
Who knows what may have happened had the problems and banking crisis not happened in 2008.
Again, you never know what crisis what may come to scupper the best of plans in politics.
I actually know no one at all, not ordinary person or political pundit who also believed the Conservatives would get an overall majority in the may 2015,all polling, all news, all expectations was for another hung parliament.
Furthermore in Scotland, you are right, the SNP has taken labour votes, however that does not necessarily need to hinder labour as the SNP would much rather have a Labour led govt in Westminster and would never help a Conservative led govt.
Also, James Callaghan was miles ahead of Margaret Thatcher as the person liked best to be PM in 1979, yet she beat him.
Going further back too, Harold Wilson suffered one of the most surprising and unexpected defeats in 1970, when virtually from nowhere, Ted Heath came through to beat him then.
Politics is full of shocks in history, none moreso than way back in 1945 when war leader Winston Churchill was not just beaten by labours Attlee but beaten by a landslide in that election right after the war..
I am not going to join in with personal insulting of politicians as you do with Corbyn,I judge politicians on what they actually stand for and do,no need for personal insults, which is something I admire in Corbyn, he does not engage in that.
Do I however wish Labour had another leader, yes,again though, now if there is a split if Corbyn wins, I do not now think it will be a bad one as to numbers.
I am not that sure there will be one now either and hope not.
Never underestimate Parties and their machinery to fight back,the Conservatives fell way under 200 seats in 1997 and 2001,yet still came back.
You may be right that labour cannot win the next election but things have never been as they are now with political minefields that can pop up anywhere and anytime now too.
Which can wipe away support for a party and also govts. at a stroke.
I do however believe that Labour can seemingly against the odds at present, do well well enough to remove the Conservatives overall majority.
UKIP are actually also doing pretty poorly in the polls now too, the Lib Dems have made no progress really since may 2015.
I think writing anything and anyone off as to politics at the present time, is unwise.
The UK is in massively uncharted waters, this govt. is really not that popular.
A lot to come forward and a lot to possibly go wrong and right for all in politics, which can really make big changes possible and predictions at this time worthless.
The unpredictability of politics is what makes it exciting for me and really with years to go, no one can know what may happen.
It may yet be if Theresa may starts to get the EU issue wrong, she could be gone before the next election.
There could yet be another challenge to Corbyn if he wins this again too.
Who knows, no one, not I, you or really anyone else.
The voters will decide the next election and it will depend on their mood alone what happens and no one has much idea of what they may be looking for or want,or more to the point what all the new eligible voters will be looking for, come that next election.
Voters who more often than not can spring big surprises on Parties and their leaders in elections and anytime they get to vote really.