[user104658]

I said in the other thread that I reckon the smart money might well be on "opposite of expected" (lab/lib coalition being the obvious choice). It's not so much that I think it's a dead cert but like you say, the stats, polls and bookies are consistently getting it wrong lately. I have to wonder if people see what they are "expected to do" and simply refuse to do it, no matter what it is. People are expected to keep the Tory majority.