Quote:
Originally posted by Sticks
Terpsichore, are you a professional gambler by any chance? I wondered because of your expertise in this area. I also was wondering if you were some kind of statistician. I really value your eye on this world. We have a guy at work who does the horses, so it was interesting discussing the operation of bookies with him and the differences between dependent and independent probabilities.
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I'm an occasional gambler, not professional. I wouldn't touch the horses, or even the football, where expertise counts for a lot - previous form, knowledge of conditions, etc. I did do the football four or five years ago, but profit margins were pretty small. But with something like BB, there is no previous form. Each contestant has a blank sheet when they walk into the house. And the objective is to guess what impression they are making on the public. Bookies are no better at that than anyone else. So making money is possible. I first started betting on the twins when their odds were in double figures, Amanda at 16/1 and Sam at 20/1. I was sure the public would take to them increasingly, and their odds would shorten. As they did shorten, I continued to take bets with increasing amounts, and I've hung onto all those bets.
What I mean by that is that I haven't hedged them, which I could have done, by "laying" on Betfair, where punters are betting against each other, not against bookies. "Laying" a bet isn't the same thing as "placing" a bet. If I "laid" now on Betfair, I'd offer "twins to win" to any punter who wants to take it, for a fixed stake. But obviously the odds I offer them are drastically shorter than the ones I myself took several weeks back, so I'd be risking a small amount for a potentially large return. If the twins win, I lose that bet, of course, so my overall profit is what it would have been minus the stake I lost on Betfair. If, against all probabilites, the twins lose, I lose all my twins-to-win bets, but win the one on Betfair. By carefully adjusting the stake, you can ensure you make a profit whatever the result. So, in many ways, it's like playing the stock market. You hope to buy low and sell high. You take a contestant to win at long odds, then when their odds have shortened, you lay it on Betfair, thus guaranteeing a profit.
I could have done that with the twins, though I didn't. My confidence in them tells me, rightly or wrongly, to risk everything on a win, and not to lay at all.
But betting on BB is a matter of having a good eye for the outside bet, and getting your bets in early, before the odds shorten. And that means watching a lot of TV in the early phases of the show. I risked quite a lot last year with Glyn, on a "win without Pete" bet, when he was still longish odds, and hope to be as successful with the twins tonight.
But gambling is gambling, and with something like BB there are no experts. I, and thousands of other punters, could be wrong tonight. With the fickle public, you never know. All I can say is, I've seen no sign in the past week of a Brian surge, even though everyone seems to be talking about it. If I had done, I would have laid off some of my bets. But I need more than rumours, or scare stories in the tabloids. So I'm sticking. Twins to win.