[Brother Leon]

Leaked details from May's disastrous dinner with Juncker suggest Brexit could be far worse than anyone imagines


All of the facts have been available to British journalists writing on Brexit for months. Nothing is new. But with one or two exceptions the entire UK coverage of Brexit is written entirely from a UK-UK point of view

Europe is waking up on May Day to the most devastating document published so far on Brexit. In what appears to be an almost verbatim account of the Downing Street dinner last Wednesday in which Theresa May and David Davis broke bread with Jean-Claude Juncker and Michel Barnier, the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung Sunday edition details the sheer astonishment of the EU negotiators at May's position.

There is a semantic dispute on whether Brussels or Berlin planted the story but since there is zero difference between Angela Merkel (or Martin Schulz) and the Juncker-Tusk-Barnier troika, it hardly matters. London political journalists who deal daily in cynically planted leaks are hardly in a position to protest at German journalists happy to publish an account that is extremely damaging to the British Prime Minister.

The details, however, are a shock. May told Juncker that Britain did not have to pay any of the UK's outstanding bills or liabilities. She insisted all negotiations should be kept secret and was surprised when Juncker said there would have to be reports to national parliaments. If the UK left the single market and the customs union Britain would have a lower status as a "third country" than Turkey, Juncker told the Prime Minister.

May was reminded that the EU is a legal construction, not a golf club, and she was told that given the length of time it took negotiating a deal with Canada or Croatia it would be years of talks to finalise an UK-UK trade agreement.
She said that the issue of EU citizens in the UK could be settled by June. It was pointed out that this involved health care, social security issues and these were national government competences. Moreover, the UK has no list of EU citizens in Britain.

She referred to the meaningless temporary opt-outs she negotiated from EU Justice and Home Affairs measures and suggested this could be a model for Brexit with the UK opting back in on a cherry-picking basis to bits of the single market she liked.

The EU team left Downing Street in a state of shock. Juncker placed a late-night call to Angela Merkel to convey his pessimism about the lack of knowledge or understanding in Downing Street about the Brexit policy of the EU27 governments - every bit as sovereign and accountable to their voters as May is in Britain.
The next day Merkel told the Bundestag that Britain suffered from "illusions" over Brexit which produced the predictable insults from anti-EU Tories and London's mono-lingual journalists writing for the offshore press.

What is surprising is that anyone is surprised. The dominant centre-right confederation of EU conservative parties, the European People's Party, published a full page advert in the current Politico setting out Brexit negotiating priorities. These include: "EU citizens will not pay the bill for the British. EU citizens will not accept British blockades. The right order of the negotiations has to be respected" and other demands.

In visits to seven EU capitals so far this year, I have heard all of these points from senior ministers and officials responsible for Brexit talks. In Berlin I was told that the German government has been asking London for months for a list of EU citizens in the UK. There has been no reply. In Warsaw I was told that Britain had to meet its financial obligations to the EU before any exit deal could be agreed. In Lisbon I was told that despite friendship with England going back to a 14th century treaty between the two countries, Lisbon now thought in terms of the EU27 and would stay loyal to its EU partners. In Paris, I was told that the frontier would move to British territory and that customs clearing centres would be set up in all French ports to control British lorries and car and that there was no question that the $120trn City money-making machine of trading and clearing euros could stay in a non-EU or EEA country.

In Dublin the deep fear is that if the UK leaves the customs' union, there would have to be border crossing checks between Northern Ireland and Ireland with cars, vans and lorries checked for any goods that had not paid duty.

In one major EU capital, the chief Foreign Ministry Brexit negotiator told me: "We know the UK ambassador sends accurate reports of our Brexit policy to London but does anyone read them?"
All of these facts have been available to British journalists writing on Brexit for months. Nothing is new. But with one or two exceptions the entire UK coverage of Brexit is written entirely from a UK-UK point of view with the routine clichés thrown in of insulting Jean-Claude Juncker.
One cannot blame Theresa May and her mono-lingual No 10 team. Not since its 1930s coverage of Germany has the majority of the British media, including the BBC, been so poor in covering the main challenge to Britain's future in half a century.
If British citizens, businesses, inward investors and even MPs are not told any of the core publicly available facts about the position all 27 EU sovereign governments are taking on Brexit then the final outcome may be far worse than anyone imagines.

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/...-a7711526.html


Looks like our strong and powerful leader is out of her depth.

[Brillopad]

Originally Posted by Brother Leon

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/...-a7711526.html


Looks like our strong and powerful leader is out of her depth.

Ah the very biased Independent. Think I will take that with a pinch of salt.

[Withano]

Originally Posted by Brillopad

Ah the very biased Independent. Think I will take that with a pinch of salt.

"An almost verbatim account"

wouldn't overdo it, your reaction seems salty enough as it is

[reece(:]

The scandal! Jezza would never do such criminal activity

[Tom4784]

This is nothing new, a lot of the challenges of Brexit were made apparent before the vote but people brought into the lie that we don't need the EU but the EU needs us. People who voted with that mindset are in for a vicious wake up call.

I say bring it on, hopefully people will learn from the carnage to make informed decisions in future.

[Brillopad]

Originally Posted by Dezzy

This is nothing new, a lot of the challenges of Brexit were made apparent before the vote but people brought into the lie that we don't need the EU but the EU needs us. People who voted with that mindset are in for a vicious wake up call.

I say bring it on, hopefully people will learn from the carnage to make informed decisions in future.

Talk about counting your chickens. The outcome is two years' away - a lot can happen in that time.

Nothing wrong with the mindset of those that voted out. Time will tell about your predicted wake-up call - having to eat one's words is never very appetising.

[Toy Soldier]

Originally Posted by Brillopad

Talk about counting your chickens. The outcome is two years' away - a lot can happen in that time.

Nothing wrong with the mindset of those that voted out. Time will tell about your predicted wake-up call - having to eat one's words is never very appetising.

[Tom4784]

Originally Posted by Brillopad

Talk about counting your chickens. The outcome is two years' away - a lot can happen in that time.

Nothing wrong with the mindset of those that voted out. Time will tell about your predicted wake-up call - having to eat one's words is never very appetising.

Be careful, you don't want to get sand in your ears.

[DemolitionRed]

Originally Posted by Brillopad

Talk about counting your chickens. The outcome is two years' away - a lot can happen in that time.

More like turkeys voting for Christmas!

The contradiction in the timing is potentially catastrophic because the governments flawed analysis that we can leave the EU without any proper negotiations for future trade in place leaves us with no credible negotiation strategy.

Nothing wrong with the mindset of those that voted out. Time will tell about your predicted wake-up call - having to eat one's words is never very appetising.

I voted out but I'm aware that the leave victory was a narrow one and there is no evidence to suggest that the many leave voters were in favour of such an extreme outcome. The leave campaigners explicitly promised that withdrawal from the EU wouldn’t include leaving the single market and the customs union.

Its obvious that a large proportion of the country don’t support government plans.

[Brillopad]

Originally Posted by DemolitionRed

More like turkeys voting for Christmas!




I voted out but I'm aware that the leave victory was a narrow one and there is no evidence to suggest that the many leave voters were in favour of such an extreme outcome. The leave campaigners explicitly promised that withdrawal from the EU wouldn’t include leaving the single market and the customs union.

Its obvious that a large proportion of the country don’t support government plans.

There is also no evidence to suggest they weren't or that they would be particularly phased by it either. I believe that most voted for in or out - that was it. All the talk about the single market, hard brexit, soft brexit came later.

I think some people like to think they more knowledgeable/intelligent than the majority of voters and particularly like to label those that voted out as gullible, stupid etc. This of course is not true, just intimidation tactics and agendas. Remoaners, devious lot that they are, preyed on the financial insecurities of the lower earners and unemployed in attempt to get them to change their votes. Maybe it will work, maybe it won't.

Maybe many people wanted out even if it might be a difficult ride. Things can't get much worse in this country in many ways.

.

[DemolitionRed]

Originally Posted by Brillopad

There is also no evidence to suggest they weren't or that they would be particularly phased by it either. I believe that most voted for in or out - that was it. All the talk about the single market, hard brexit, soft brexit came later.

I think some people like to think they more knowledgeable/intelligent than the majority of voters and particularly like to label those that voted out as gullible, stupid etc. This of course is not true, just intimidation tactics and agendas. Remoaners, devious lot that they are, preyed on the financial insecurities of the lower earners and unemployed in attempt to get them to change their votes. Maybe it will work, maybe it won't.

Maybe many people wanted out even if it might be a difficult ride. Things can't get much worse in this country in many ways.

.

Keep it at base level Brillo. It keeps the debate circles turning.

[Northern Monkey]

Originally Posted by DemolitionRed

The leave campaigners explicitly promised that withdrawal from the EU wouldn’t include leaving the single market and the customs union

No.

Infact even remainers said that leaving the EU meant leaving the single market.

Youtube video

[Cherie]

Originally Posted by Northern Monkey

No.

Infact even remainers said that leaving the EU meant leaving the single market.

Youtube video

Correct there was no confirmation of what would happen to the single market until very recently, it was one of the questions that couldnt be answered until a decision was made on soft/hard Brexit

[DemolitionRed]

Originally Posted by Northern Monkey

No.

Infact even remainers said that leaving the EU meant leaving the single market.

Youtube video

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0xGt3QmRSZY

"Absolutely nobody is talking about threatening our place in the Single Market"
Daniel Hannan MEP

"Only a madman would actually leave the single Market"
Owen Paterson MP, Vote Leave backer

"Wouldn’t it be terrible if we were really like Norway and Switzerland? Really? They’re rich. They’re happy. They’re self-governing"
Nigel Farage, Ukip leader

[Scarlett.]

Originally Posted by Dezzy

This is nothing new, a lot of the challenges of Brexit were made apparent before the vote but people brought into the lie that we don't need the EU but the EU needs us. People who voted with that mindset are in for a vicious wake up call.

I say bring it on, hopefully people will learn from the carnage to make informed decisions in future.

I wouldn't count on people learning lessons from it they'll just find a scapegoat and pass the blame onto something else, couldn't possibly be that they voted against the country's interests.

[joeysteele]

Originally Posted by Chewy

I wouldn't count on people learning lessons from it they'll just find a scapegoat and pass the blame onto something else, couldn't possibly be that they voted against the country's interests.

I'd say you are absolutely right in all you say in your post.

[smudgie]

Funny how it was reported to have gone alright.
Couldn't be fake news then could it...or has been said, gossip.

[Brother Leon]

Originally Posted by smudgie

Funny how it was reported to have gone alright.
Couldn't be fake news then could it...or has been said, gossip.

Why do you think she went back on her word and what she's being saying all along and suddenly called a snap election? She's deserpate for any form of leverage as she's obviously struggling with negotiations. Not hard to read between the lines here..

[joeysteele]

It's got her rather rattled.
She wants things kept quiet and done behind closed doors probably.
The EU may have other ideas.

She terms it gossip but often gossip contains truth.
She'd rather likely keep voters in the dark as to the way things really are going or are likely to.

[DemolitionRed]

Originally Posted by joeysteele

It's got her rather rattled.
She wants things kept quiet and done behind closed doors probably.
The EU may have other ideas.

She terms it gossip but often gossip contains truth.
She'd rather likely keep voters in the dark as to the way things really are going or are likely to.

This rhetoric that May has borrowed from the likes of the Daily Mail and the Daily Express, that seems to marginalise and demonise any form of opposition; makes it somehow no longer legitimate to question the government. To criticise the government is paramount to putting national interest in danger!!

This argument that May needs a strong mandate and needs it fast is unconvincing. Its tantamount to claiming that so long as we are engaged in international negotiations we should never change the government. For global Britain who will be in international negotiations forever, she may as well be saying, “this country needs a one party state”

This political messiah complex is anything but British.

[arista]

[jaxie]

Oh look the EU are playing political games in the press. What a shock.

[Brillopad]

Hark at all the clairvoyants on here who think they can predict the future this early in the game. All these wise souls who think they are so much better informed they anyone else. There is a Long way to go yet - a lot can and will happen. Jumping on one newspaper article as though it's words are a foregone conclusion is utter hysterical nonsence. It is definitely not a foregone conclusion, just another good dose of wishful thinking and scare tactics. The remoaners repeating their never ending words of woe at every opportunity! It is a desperate attempt to unnerve those hovering and to 'encourage' them to change their vote if and when there is a referendum on the terms of the deal. Constant scare tactics from scared and angry people

Did anyone really expect it was going to be easy, that the EU were going to just roll over. They don't want Brexit and are going to do everything they can to make it difficult. They are throwing a strop and stamping their feet in protest - as was expected.

Most predictions by those doom and gloom merchants of an immediate negative effect of our economy did not materialise and our economy is still strong. I for one am not going to buy into all this negative hype from those with a clear agenda. To do so would be foolish at this stage and playing into the hands of the Remoaners. Like the rest of us you remoaners are amateurs not economists and your opinions are no more knowledgable or better informed.

Opinions, however dressed up, are opinions, nothing more.

[Kizzy]

Originally Posted by Brillopad

Hark at all the clairvoyants on here who think they can predict the future this early in the game. All these wise souls who think they are so much better informed they anyone else. There is a Long way to go yet - a lot can and will happen. Jumping on one newspaper article as though it's words are a foregone conclusion is utter hysterical nonsence. It is definitely not a foregone conclusion, just another good dose of wishful thinking and scare tactics. The remoaners repeating their never ending words of woe at every opportunity! It is a desperate attempt to unnerve those hovering and to 'encourage' them to change their vote if and when there is a referendum on the terms of the deal. Constant scare tactics from scared and angry people

Did anyone really expect it was going to be easy, that the EU were going to just roll over. They don't want Brexit and are going to do everything they can to make it difficult. They are throwing a strop and stamping their feet in protest - as was expected.

Most predictions by those doom and gloom merchants of an immediate negative effect of our economy did not materialise and our economy is still strong. I for one am not going to buy into all this negative hype from those with a clear agenda. To do so would be foolish at this stage and playing into the hands of the Remoaners. Like the rest of us you remoaners are amateurs not economists and your opinions are no more knowledgable or better informed.

Opinions, however dressed up, are opinions, nothing more.

And what makes you so optimistic, what have you heard that is so encouraging?...Or is it just your blind faith in this warmongering, corrupt shambolic govt?

[Tom4784]

Originally Posted by Brillopad

Hark at all the clairvoyants on here who think they can predict the future this early in the game. All these wise souls who think they are so much better informed they anyone else. There is a Long way to go yet - a lot can and will happen. Jumping on one newspaper article as though it's words are a foregone conclusion is utter hysterical nonsence. It is definitely not a foregone conclusion, just another good dose of wishful thinking and scare tactics. The remoaners repeating their never ending words of woe at every opportunity! It is a desperate attempt to unnerve those hovering and to 'encourage' them to change their vote if and when there is a referendum on the terms of the deal. Constant scare tactics from scared and angry people

Did anyone really expect it was going to be easy, that the EU were going to just roll over. They don't want Brexit and are going to do everything they can to make it difficult. They are throwing a strop and stamping their feet in protest - as was expected.

Most predictions by those doom and gloom merchants of an immediate negative effect of our economy did not materialise and our economy is still strong. I for one am not going to buy into all this negative hype from those with a clear agenda. To do so would be foolish at this stage and playing into the hands of the Remoaners. Like the rest of us you remoaners are amateurs not economists and your opinions are no more knowledgable or better informed.

Opinions, however dressed up, are opinions, nothing more.

If you believe ignorance is bliss then feel free to stick your head in the sand but don't disparage others for accepting the reality of the situation.