[Crimson Dynamo]

[Crimson Dynamo]

This is exactly like when news media say "-12C and 6 inches of snow next
week" when the actual news is -12 C and 6 inches of snow 3000 feet up in
the North Scottish mountains but rain and 5 C in Glasgow, 7 C and rain in
Manchester and 10 C and showers in LOndon

[arista]

Originally Posted by Santa's Little Helper

I think we will probably have a lockdown soon.

Maybe.


Johnson has to get a Vote in Parliament
Most of his MP's will not back it,
however, Labour Party will, again, back his plan
giving all their votes to get it through.

[Crimson Dynamo]

Listen to what Scott Morrison the Oz leader has to say about Covid now - you will find this interesting for sure:

it starts at 2.20

Youtube video

[arista]

Northern Ireland Ministers are now talking
on SkyNewsHD

They warn Omicron will soon expand,

Limits are now to 3 households
26th Night Clubs will be Closed

[Crimson Dynamo]

Originally Posted by arista

Northern Ireland Ministers are now talking
both news channels.

They warn Omicron will soon expand,

Limits are now to 3 households
26th Night Clubs will be Closed

"They warn Omicron will soon expand,"

Its already all over the world and the dominant strain in the UK

I hope they did not make such an ill-informed ridiculous remark?

[Alf]

I reckon Schools are gonna be closed in January. Destroying children.

You tolerated this that's why your children are next.

[arista]

[Crimson Dynamo]

We are heading for a face off between real world data and Sage modelling

Now that the government has refused to call a lockdown, SAGE scenarios can
be measured against the real-world outcomes

How the left loves trying to establish the narrative that we have a Government of charlatans pitched against the collected
wisdom of scientists. Yet the real schism lies within science, between the modellers and those who prefer to read real world
evidence. With hospitalisations failing to rise at anything like the rate feared a few days ago, and with the UK Health Security
Agency poised to announce that yes, omicron does indeed cause milder disease than earlier variants, it feels as if we are
heading for the denouement, the gunfight at the OK Corrall, at which one side will win the decisive battle and the other side
be humbled.

When omicron first emerged in South Africa a month ago two things seemed immediately apparent: firstly that this variant was
a lot more transmissible than earlier variants, and secondly, that it was causing milder illness. Indeed, it was the unexpected
mildness of the symptoms which first drew doctors’ attention to the possibility that this could be a new variant – something
which was then rapidly confirmed by the country’s excellent facilities for sequencing the virus.

What was anecdotal at first was soon confirmed by real data. A presentation last week by the South African Medical Research
Council and Discovery Health, one of South Africa’s large healthcare providers, showed that the omicron wave was evolving
very differently from earlier waves. The infection was spreading faster, but hospitalisations were not responding to anything
like the same extent as they were during the alpha and delta waves.

Yet in Britain this evidence went largely ignored. Instead, Sage’s modellers – first the London School of Hygiene and Tropical
Medicine (LSHTM) and then Imperial College – put out terrifying projections showing hospitalisations and deaths possibly rising
to even higher levels than they during April 2020 or last January’s peak. LSHTM produced a scenario which showed
hospitalisations rising to a peak of 7190 a day in January – 60 percent higher than last year.

Meanwhile, Professor Neil Ferguson of Imperial College suggested there could be 5,000 omicron deaths a day this winter
without more restrictions.

Sage spokespeople, opposition parties and some government minsters panicked and wanted to throw the country into
immediate lockdown, with all the economic and social havoc that entails. Fortunately, however, a sceptical quorum of cabinet
ministers wanted to know more. Among the questions I am sure they will have asked at Monday’s cabinet meeting is: why did
the modellers ignore the emerging evidence from South Africa that omicron caused a milder disease? Both LSHTM and
Imperial’s models assumed that the new variant was every bit as deadly as delta – and they didn’t model the possibility that
it might be rather less so.

Does this make the sceptical cabinet ministers anti-science? Hardly. It just
means they had the confidence to ask the right questions and realise that different scientists were painting very different stories. Angelique Coetzee
certainly wouldn’t
appreciate being called ‘anti-science’. She is the South African doctor who
discovered omicron and who has consistently
warned that European countries are over-reacting to the threat posed by the
variant and that they are wrong to distrust data
from South Africa.

She and Sage’s models can’t both be right. We are not yet at the end of the
story – far from it – but if we do have a massive peak of hospitalisations and
deaths over the next month, surpassing that of previous waves, then we will
have to respect Sage’s modelling. If not, there will be nowhere for those
modellers to hide – given that the government has refused to call a
lockdown, their scenarios can be measured against the real-world outcome.
If omicron fizzles into relatively little, as it already appears to be doing in
South Africa, the government will have to start asking: is Sage, and its
fixation on modelling, fit for purpose?

https://www.thisisbigbrother.com/for...reply&t=379072

[Cherie]

Unbelievable that Professor pantsdown who ignored his own lockdown is still advising

[Crimson Dynamo]

Originally Posted by Cherry Christmas

Unbelievable that Professor pantsdown who ignored his own lockdown is still advising

he is a danger to society

[bots]

they got the modelling on coming out of lockdown earlier in the year completely wrong too. It's not like the modellers have a great track record to date

[Cherie]

as someone who rang LBC today said, not one Sage adviser has lost a pay check or suffered a sleepless night over their business

[joeysteele]

Originally Posted by NoëlEdmonds

He’s very measured and acts when he needs to and when he does act, he’s very clear on what needs to be done

I agree.
I like his candid, no nonsense and measured responses to this.
He's been like that all through for me.

[Crimson Dynamo]

Originally Posted by joeysteele

I agree.
I like his candid, no nonsense and measured responses to this.
He's been like that all through for me.

he has time and again been proven to act without evidence and base his decisions on poor modeling

he is a headless chicken making decisions based on fear of blame and not science or evidence

[Crimson Dynamo]

[Zizu]

Originally Posted by Cherry Christmas

as someone who rang LBC today said, not one Sage adviser has lost a pay check or suffered a sleepless night over their business

I would imagine the Sage advisors could possibly be having many more sleepless nights than any of us given they know far more facts than us


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

[Zizu]

Originally Posted by Zizu

90,000 on Saturday suggests that Tuesday’s will be well over 100,000 !!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

I wasn’t far off


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

[arista]

[arista]

[arista]

[arista]

[arista]

[arista]

[arista]