[Ketman]

The contenders for eviction this week would be those who got 2 or more nominations last week. Since Cairon has gone, I've discounted his noms. That leaves these as the runners and riders:-

Freddie - 9 noms
Marcus -3 noms
Lisa - 3 noms
Angel -2 noms
Sree - 2 noms

Noirin has a blank space in her list since Cairon's exit, and I suspect she will fill it with Angel. She had a go at her behind her back for "attention-seeking", and also about not doing much in the kitchen. So Angel is a fair contender this week. Others who nommed Cairon are Angel, Rodrigo and Sree, who must now look around for someone else. Angel is a bit disillusioned with Noirin and might nom her, but it won't make much difference, because I doubt anyone else will. Sree is a complete unknown. He called Freddie "one of the roses in my bouquet", or whatever it was, a couple of days after he nommed him. So what he says to anyone's face can be completely discounted. Rodrigo will probably go for Cairon's sidekick, Siavash. But Siavash only got one nom last week, so I don't think he's in the running.

Freddie, as usual, is a dead cert for nomination. The other four - Marcus, Lisa, Angel and Sree - are possibles, with Lisa and Marcus being the most likely, in my estimation.

But we have an extraordinary situation this year where the public's current favourite was nommed by three-quarters of the housemates. This yawning gap between opinion inside and outside the house can only be explained by the fact that the HMs live with Freddie 24/7 whereas we have him for only the time-slice the editors choose to give us. What seems charming and endearing in small doses to people who have the choice of switching off could become the cause of an assault with a deadly weapon for people living with it all day long in a confined space. I suspect as time goes on, the public will tire of Freddie's posh-hippie grandstanding, and the consensus will swing towards the HM's view. I expect Freddie to slip in the rankings. But at the moment he's riding high, so anyone up against him this week is a near-certainty for eviction.

Leaving Freddie out of it, the odds currently offered on Betfair for the next evictee are :

Marcus - 2.94
Sree - 3.65
Lisa - 5.6
Angel 9.2

(That was half an hour ago, and odds change from hour to hour, so they could be obsolete by dinner-time.)

What those figures tell us is that gamblers think Angel is the least likely evictee of the four by quite a long way. Well, I agree that Angel is probably the least likely of those to be up this week, but only slightly so. It's not enough to justify the discrepancy in the odds. I think I spot a gambler's mistake, and that means an opportunity. Those odds seem to me to be based on nothing more than Angel's popularity with the public. Her odds are longer simply because she is more popular. But the point is that this week popularity doesn't really come into it. Whoever is up against Freddie is almost certainly gone, popular or not. What that means is that Angel provides us with is what is called a "value bet". A value bet does not necessarily mean that the outcome you bet on has a high likelihood of coming about. It just means that the odds are long enough that you only need to stake a small amount, with potentially quite a big return. And if you lose, it won't kill you.

So that's my bet of the week - Angel to go. I staked a moderate amount at those odds, even though Angel is actually my favourite HM. In gambling, you never let your heart rule your head. I'll be sad if she goes, but at least I'll be a few shekels richer.