[joeysteele]

Well that is what I said too a likely Labour/Lib Dem coalition possibly although I still believe the electoral system will likely deliver a majority Labour Govt.
Even on those figures above arista, Labour would be at the worst just 2 seats short of an overall majority.
With the fact that Sinn Fein don't take their seats at Westminster and that the SDLP in Northern Ireland support Labour too, they would then already have a workable majority if that was what happened anyway.

However, while it is true UKIP have done amazing in these local elections, it is also a fact Labour gained 291 seats to the Conservatives losing 336.
labour gained 9% as to the projected share of the votes cast while the Conservatives lost 10%
That is pretty significant and it speaks volumes as to the Conservatives chances of real success in 2015,for me anyway.

I largely ignore the Lib Dems now, a loss of 120 seats and down to 14% of the likely votes cast would suggest to me they could even find themselves replaced as the 3rd force in UK politics in a General election if they don't pull away and in a big way too from this Conservative led coalition.

[arista]

Yes But Conservative Still has the most Councils
in England

http://news.sky.com/story/1086321/lo...make-big-gains

[joeysteele]

Actually listening to him, Michael Gove would be,in my view, a far better leader of the Conservative party than David Cameron.
He was interesting to listen to when he was talking as to the local elections.

The Conservatives may well have the most councils in England, they had even more councils in 2010 but still didn't get an overall majority, in fact they haven't won an overall majority in a general election for 21 years now.

[Livia]

In my consituency, Conservatives held all 11 of their previously held seats and even gained one from the LibDems. We only failed to gain 1 seat which has been LibDem ever since there were LibDems and we didn't expect to win it anyway, even so our candidate did the work, knocked on doors, canvassed and delivered literature. As a result we did come in second on that seat, raising our majority by quite a bit. UKIP didn't win one seat in my area. Neither did they put out any literature, do any campaigning or (in all but two cases) bother to turn up for the count.

Before people start making predictions about the General Election (which in many cases will be run alongside District Elections in 2015), we have European Elections. Let's see what happens between now and May 2014. I think the Conservatives will be forced into making law a referendum on Europe. Apart from a protest vote, UKIP have got votes because of their stance on immigration and an intention to withdraw from Europe (although they have no strategy for how they plan to do it and how they plan to pay for it). They have very flimsy bullet points when it comes to other issues, which is another reason that I think they're going to fall on their faces in local government.

[lostalex]

I love how the far right has been on the rise for so long in Europe (especially UK, France, Greece, Spain, Italy. Norway) but it's just explained away as "people are unhappy about policies"

ofcourse when the tea party emerges in America, "THEY'RE ALL RACISTS, DUMB RACIST AMERICANS!!!"

The far right in Europe is far scarier than anything going on in America.

[Cherie]

Originally Posted by lostalex

I love how the far right has been on the rise for so long in Europe (especially UK, France, Greece, Spain, Italy. Norway) but it's just explained away as "people are unhappy about policies"

ofcourse when the tea party emerges in America, "THEY'RE ALL RACISTS, DUMB RACIST AMERICANS!!!"

The far right in Europe is far scarier than anything going on in America.

I agree with your sentiments Alex. I read a Spanish forum regularly and the most vociferous voice in favour of UKIP are a section of expats who left England to live in Spain to get away from "all the foreigners", always makes me smile :

[Vicky.]

I never saw the conservative candidate anywhere round here. UKIP were everywhere, constantly..everytime I went shopping they were there, they were round the doors, they were wandering round the streets... Labour knocked on my door once and had a bit of a natter. No sign of the Tories at all..

Possibly because I live in Durham though, and they know theres little to no chance of ever getting in here so why bother wasting time.

[joeysteele]

My home area council has 57 seats, the Conservatives had 42 before this election.
They lost 12 to end up with 30, Labour went from having only 3 seats up to 12, UKIP gained 4 seats and the Lib Dems previously had 8 seats and lost 5 of them.

They nearly lost it to noc but now only have a 3 overall majority down from a 27 overall majority.

[Omah]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-22382098

UKIP leader Nigel Farage has hailed gains in council elections across England as a "game changer".

UKIP won over 140 seats and averaged 25% of the vote in the wards where it was standing.

The Conservatives lost 335 seats and control of 10 councils, but retained 18, while Labour gained two councils and boosted its councillors by nearly 300.

Oh, and the Lib Dems lost 124 seats.

[Suze]

Originally Posted by Omah

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-22382098

The Tories got in here, but that was expected as it is a known Tory hold. It was pretty much a foregone conclusion that wasn't going to change.

[Omah]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-22396689

1999 Euros: 7%
2001 Gen Election: 1.5% (saved deposit in one seat)

2004 Euros: 16%
2005 Gen Election: 2.3% (saved deposit in 38 seats)

2009 Euros: 16.5%
2010 Gen Election: 3.2% (saved deposit in 100 seats)

So far, so good .....

[joeysteele]

I have to admit that I don't think this is a flash in the pan from UKIP.

They did well in the last by-election and in the South Shields one they have also done really well, how the Lib Dems can put anything positive on their placing in South Shields is beyond my understanding, the Lib Dems always claimed the North East as good ground for them.

It is the consistency too though as to UKIP in these council elections,always getting to the high teens to mid 20s as to percentage of votes won.
It will be interesting to see what they do in next years.

I also agree with the statement being made now too that Nigel Farage should likely be considered to be alongside the other party leaders in the leaders debates if they take place at the next election.
If UKIP do hold this success gained today next year I cannot see where he ought to be denied a place in those debates too.

Just maybe something has happened in UK politics this week that will be likely more difficult to reverse than could have ever been imagined.

[arista]

"Just maybe something has happened in UK politics this week that will be likely more difficult to reverse than could have ever been imagined. "

Yes I blame Labour for having the Worst & Wrong Leader
driving Labour voters to UKIP.

[Nedusa]

Originally Posted by arista

"Just maybe something has happened in UK politics this week that will be likely more difficult to reverse than could have ever been imagined. "

Yes I blame Labour for having the Worst & Wrong Leader
driving Labour voters to UKIP.

I agree, the current Labour Leader , Ed Miliband is ill suited as a party leader and potential PM. He does not have any charisma or charm cannot really connect with the voters. I would even go as far as to say he lacks presence with an annoying voice and a slight lisp.

He has not made the impact many in the party had hoped for.

[Cherie]

Why they chose him over David is anyones guess...

[joeysteele]

Originally Posted by arista

"Just maybe something has happened in UK politics this week that will be likely more difficult to reverse than could have ever been imagined. "

Yes I blame Labour for having the Worst & Wrong Leader
driving Labour voters to UKIP.

Well considering massively far more Conservative usual/possible supporters clearly went to UKIP, by the same token as to what you say above,David Cameron must be a far worse leader to have driven such large numbers of them to UKIP too.

The worst leader of the political parties for me is Nick Clegg though.
Anyone who can dare to really kick so badly in the teeth the people who voted for and trusted the Lib Dems, then go on to ensure he has the maximum time possible of being in power by making sure a fixed parliament was put in place, is clearly someone not fit for any public position never mind having a place in any Govt.

[arista]

Feck Me




Joey
Even Michael Foot did better than your Ed Miliboy


http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...akthrough.html

[joeysteele]

Very different times then arista, modern politics is a world away from how things were then.
I still say,Ed Miliband is being underestimated, I also think that David Cameron is in fact a loser,he is seen as that by the voters and I also believe by a growing number of Conservative backbenchers and activists too.

I expect easily, at the very least a Labour/Lib Dem coalition after the 2015 election but I still feel that it will be a majority Labour Govt that is voted in,no matter who their Leader is.
Ed Miliband though arista is not my Ed Miliboy, I don't in fact particularly like him myself, he certainly would not have been my choice for a leader of a party but he will despite that, get my vote for Labour at the 2015 election.
Labour will get that vote because I already feel more at home with the policies they are currently beginning to outline and I have not a single bit of respect or liking for the policies this Govt is now pursuing,particularly against the most vulnerable and poorest in society.

I will not feel able to believe or trust what David Cameron says at the 2015 election, his words of guranteeing no full reform of the NHS,then him doing a full reform of it will resound solidily in my ears if I was ever tempted to believe him again.

Nick Clegg, I cannot stand at all,I believe he has no political credibility or political integrity left, All I want to see is him gone from UK politics,(probably to a handsomely paid position in the EU), after 2015 for his betrayal of those who trusted his party and voted for them.

[arista]

"Ed Miliband though arista is not my Ed Miliboy,
I don't in fact particularly like him myself"


Millions Hate Him.

[joeysteele]

Originally Posted by arista

"Ed Miliband though arista is not my Ed Miliboy,
I don't in fact particularly like him myself"


Millions Hate Him.

Well millions liikely strongly dislike David Cameron as a leader too but it certainly is not David Cameron's party that is ahead in the polls.
Or even now as to votes cast even in their strongest rural areas as the local elections showed.

Millions may not like Ed Miliband at all,that won't stop enough of them voting Labour though just as the many who dislike David Cameron will still vote for him too but will be really glad to see the back of him after the 2015 election.

[Omah]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-22418387

The UK Independence Party is "fundamentally changing British politics" with its goal of "getting our country back", Nigel Farage has said.

"We are the party with the broadest appeal across the country: north, south, east and west, old Labour voters, rural Tory voters, we are a genuinely national political party," he told BBC One's Andrew Marr Show.

"Now, to succeed in Westminster in 2015 we've got to grow and build a lot from here - but please don't think that it's impossible and I promise you this, UKIP is here to stay."

We're only making plans for Nigel
We only want what's best for him
We're only making plans for Nigel
Nigel just needs this helping hand
And if young Nigel says he's happy
He must be happy
He must be happy in his work

[joeysteele]

The simple fact is that the real bulk of Labour voters and also Lib Dem voters will not in enough quantities support UKIP because of their EU stance of withdrawal at any cost.

It is in fact, Conservative voters who are the most volatile now as to the EU and they are the likely best hunting grounds for UKIP.
Even then though I doubt enough will turn to UKIP in a general election although I do think UKIP will do well in 2015,even picking up a few seats,not from Labour or the Lib Dems though but from the Conservatives.

[Omah]

Originally Posted by joeysteele

The simple fact is that the real bulk of Labour voters and also Lib Dem voters will not in enough quantities support UKIP because of their EU stance of withdrawal at any cost.

"at any cost" .....

I don't think so .....

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-22396690

UKIP is still in the process of formulating the platform on which it will fight the next general election but here is some of what we know so far:

EUROPE: Nigel Farage says he wants an "amicable divorce" from the European Union. Britain would retain trading links with its European neighbours but would withdraw from treaties and end subscription payments, adopting a similar relationship with the EU to Norway or Switzerland.

IMMIGRATION: An end to the age of "mass uncontrolled immigration". It wants a five year freeze on immigration for permanent settlement - and any future migration must be strictly limited to those who can "clearly be shown to benefit the British people as a whole and our economy". Immigrants would not be able to apply for public housing or benefits until they had paid tax for five years. In order to achieve these goals Britain would have to leave the EU because there are no restrictions on other EU citizens moving to the UK while it remains a member.

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2012/12...-about-europe/

The single biggest misconception about the UKIP phenomenon is that it is all about policies: that potential UKIP voters are dissatisfied with another party’s policy in a particular area (usually Europe or immigration), prefer UKIP’s policy instead, and would return to their original party if only its original policy changed.

In fact, in the mix of things that attract voters to UKIP, policies are secondary. It is much more to do with outlook. Certainly, those who are attracted to UKIP are more preoccupied than most with immigration, and will occasionally complain about Britain’s contribution to the EU or the international aid budget. But these are often part of a greater dissatisfaction with the way they see things going in Britain: schools, they say, can’t hold nativity plays or harvest festivals any more; you can’t fly a flag of St George any more; you can’t call Christmas Christmas any more; you won’t be promoted in the police force unless you’re from a minority; you can’t wear an England shirt on the bus; you won’t get social housing unless you’re an immigrant; you can’t speak up about these things because you’ll be called a racist; you can’t even smack your children. All of these examples, real and imagined, were mentioned in focus groups by UKIP voters and considerers to make the point that the mainstream political parties are so in thrall to the prevailing culture of political correctness that they have ceased to represent the silent majority.

UKIP, for those who are attracted to it, may be the party that wants to leave the EU or toughen immigration policy but its primary attraction is that it will “say things that need to be said but others are scared to say”. Analysis of our poll found the biggest predictor of whether a voter will consider UKIP is that they agree the party is “on the side of people like me”. Agreement that UKIP shares their values and has its heart in the right place are also more important than policy issues in determining whether someone is drawn to the party. The idea that UKIP “seem to want to take Britain back to a time when things were done more sensibly”, and that “the bigger parties seem more interested in trendy nonsense than listening to ordinary people” both elicited stronger agreement among UKIP considerers than the party’s policy that Britain should leave the EU.

There you have it - not exactly in a nutshell, but in summary .....

[joeysteele]

I simply cannot see any such thing as an 'amicable divorce' from the EU as to the other Nations in it towards the UK.

UKIP want us out the EU, I as a supporter of the UK staying fIrmly in the EU cannot hold to their policy of withdrawal from same.
Of course were a 'binding',(and that is the operative word), referendum held as to staying in or coming out,with the coming out vote winning the day.
Then clearly any Govt of the day during that referendum would have to negotiate that action.

I myself though, cannot see any way it would be welcomed or in any way amicable with the other EU Nations at all.
I also believe the costs to the UK as to investment in the UK and the businesses we already have here,as well as the costs of severance with the EU could be likely enormous.

That is UKIP's policy and it's why I cannot support them but I don't deny a great many people who dislike the EU intensely will give their support to UKIP's arguments.

[Omah]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-22429790

The former chancellor of the exchequer, Lord Lawson, has called for the UK to leave the European Union.

Writing in the Times, he said British economic gains from an exit "would substantially outweigh the costs".

He describes the EU as "a bureaucratic monstrosity" and added that after an association with Brussels of 40 years "the case for exit is clear".

Lord Lawson believes that leaving the EU would prove to be a wake-up call for business leaders.

He said that too many of them were content to be in "the warm embrace of the European single market" when the great export opportunities lay in the developing world, particularly Asia.

"The heart of the matter is that the relevant economic context nowadays is not Europe but globalisation. I strongly suspect that there would be a positive economic advantage to the UK in leaving the single market."

He added that severing UK membership would save the City of London from a "frenzy of regulatory activism".

"The heart of the matter is that the very nature of the European Union, and of this country's relationship with it, has fundamentally changed after the coming into being of the European monetary union and the creation of the eurozone, of which - quite rightly - we are not a part."

For these reasons, Lord Lawson says, having voted to stay in the European Common Market, as the EU was known in 1975, "I shall be voting "out" in 2017".

"Not only do our interests increasingly differ from those of the eurozone members but, while never "at the heart of Europe" (as our political leaders have from time to time foolishly claimed), we are now becoming increasingly marginalised as we are doomed to being consistently outvoted by the eurozone bloc."

The peer - who was Margaret Thatcher's chancellor for six years - said the loss of the advantages of being within the single market were "marginal".

"You do not need to be within the single market to be able to export to the European Union, as we see from the wide range of goods on our shelves every day. The statistics are eloquent.

"Over the past decade, UK exports to the EU have risen in cash terms by some 40%. Over the same period, exports to the EU from those outside it have risen by 75%.

"The heart of the matter is that the relevant economic context nowadays is not Europe but globalisation, including global free trade, with the World Trade Organisation as its monitor."

He went on to say that he "strongly" suspects that there would be a "positive economic advantage to the UK in leaving the single market".

The ex-heavyweight enters the ring .....